簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 林培琤
Pei-Cheng Lin
論文名稱: 付費線上股票投資社群行為對散戶投資人投資決策影響之研究
The Impact of Paid Online Stock Investment Community Behavior on Retail Investors’ Investment Decisions
指導教授: 鍾建屏
Chien-Ping Chung
李修全
Hsiu-Chuan Lee
口試委員: 鍾建屏
李修全
繆維中
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 管理學院MBA
School of Management International (MBA)
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 70
中文關鍵詞: 虛擬社群投資社群投資決策意見領袖散戶投資人股市事件研究法
外文關鍵詞: virtual community, investment community, investment decision, opinion leader, retail investor, stock market, event study
相關次數: 點閱:406下載:0
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報

股票市場資訊傳遞非常快速,因此相較於其他市場來得更有效率。以往投資人大多是透過財經節目、新聞媒體、報章雜誌、投資人社團等來獲得資訊,此種方法大多都屬線下模式。但近年來逐漸發展出一種新模式:付費線上股票投資社群。投資人藉由線上社群彼此交換資訊,使資訊傳播更為快速,這種模式已成為近年來投資人最常使用獲得資訊的方式,與傳統的投顧老師所開設的投資群組不同,在這些線上投資社群中,通常都有一位意見領袖在發表意見,分享投資技巧與心得,以及分享個人認為不錯的股票標的,但礙於法規因素,非持有分析師執照者,不能有投顧行為,因此僅能透過分享的方式讓投資人自行選擇進出場時機點。
本研究導入事件研究法,首先透過資料蒐集與分析,藉由實際的個股資料來驗證,當社群中的意見領袖推薦個股標的時,是否會對散戶投資人的投資決策造成影響;其次,針對意見領袖推薦個股報酬率與市場報酬率進行比較,驗證受到投資社群意見領袖所推薦的個股標的,是否優於市場報酬。
研究結果發現,在付費線上投資社群中,意見領袖發布觀察標的資訊,確實會影響散戶投資人的行為決策,但因被推薦股票標的性質不同而有不同程度的影響。在與市場報酬率比較方面,受到意見領袖所推薦的股票標的,在事件發生期間內,其平均報酬率也優於市場的平均報酬率。


The stock market is a highly efficiency market, with rapid information transmission. In the past, investors mostly obtained the information through financial TV shows, news media, newspapers and magazines, investor associations, etc, and most of these methods were offline. In recent years, a new method has gradually developed: Paid Online Stock Investment Community. Investors use online communities to exchange information with each other that makes information transmit faster. This method has become the most common way for investors to obtain information nowadays. It is different from the investment groups which were set up by traditional investment advisors. Within these online investment communities, there is usually an opinion leader expressing opinions, sharing investment skills and experience, and even recommending some good stock targets. However, due to statutable factors, non-licensed analysts can not provide any investment advice. Therefore, opinion leaders can only share the targets, and let investors choose the timing to buy or sell by themselves.
This research will base on information collection and data analysis, focusing on the actual individual stock data to verify whether the recommendation of opinion leaders will affect the decision of retail investors. Besides, it will verified whether the stocks recommended by the opinion leaders of the investment community are better than the market returns by comparing the return rate of individual stocks with the market.
According to the results, within the chargeable stock investment online community, the stock information that revealed by the opinion leaders is indeed having an impact on the decision of retail investors. However, the level of influence will be various depend on the feature of each individual stock. When it comes to the rate of return, the stock recommended by opinion leaders is also having a return better than average.

中文摘要 IV 英文摘要 V 謝誌 VII 目錄 VIII 圖目錄 X 表目錄 XI 壹、緒論 1 第一節 研究背景 1 第二節 研究動機 1 第三節 研究目的與重要性 2 第四節 研究流程 3 貳、文獻探討 4 第一節 社群的定義與發展 4 第二節 虛擬社群 4 第三節 意見領袖 8 第四節 效率市場假說與行為財務學 9 第五節 散戶投資人的媒體行為與從眾行為 11 參、研究方法 14 第一節 樣本篩選與資料來源 14 第二節 研究假說 18 第三節 事件研究法 19 第四節 統計檢定 25 肆、研究結果 27 第一節 樣本輪廓說明 27 第二節 意見領袖推薦股票對成交變動量影響 27 第三節 意見領袖推薦股票報酬率 30 第四節 異常散戶成交變動量檢定統計量 34 第五節 異常報酬率檢定統計量 41 第六節 實證分析總結 49 伍、結論與建議 51 第一節 研究結論 51 第二節 對投資人投資行為的意涵 52 第三節 研究限制與未來研究建議 53 參考文獻 55 一、 中文文獻 55 二、 英文文獻 55

一、 中文文獻
王瑋瑄 (2016),Google搜尋指數與臺灣股票報酬、成交量的關係研究 (碩士論文) ,銘傳大學財務金融學系碩士班,台北市。
王韻怡、池祥萱、周冠男 (2016),行為財務學文獻回顧與展望:台灣市場之研究,經濟論文叢刊,44 (1),1-55。
何孟達 (2016),極端市場之際,模糊程度是否影響投資人的從眾行為 (碩士論文) ,國立臺北大學企業管理學系,台北市。
孫足承、高禾淳、張超盛、王天津 (2009),《網路社群資訊交換行為模式》,「2009 年第二十屆國際資訊管理學術研討會」發表論文。
莊道明 (1998),從臺灣學術網路使用調查解析網路虛擬社群價值觀,資訊傳播與圖書館學月刊,5 (1),52-31。
郭敏華 (2010),台灣股民之網路社會行為暨網路資訊行為,當代商管研究,2 (2),21-34。
楊奇達 (2018),注意股連續警示下投資人從眾行為分析 (碩士論文),國立政治大學經營管理碩士學程,台北市。
萬金生、楊景雍 (2002),網際網路虛擬社群的研究:以喜市 (SeedCity) 論壇中「旅遊」 與「美食」討論區為研究對象,旅遊管理研究,2 (2),67-78。
鍾友碩 (2006),虛擬社群成員信任因素之研究-以交易型虛擬社群為例 (碩士論文),靜宜大學企業管理研究所,台中市。
蘇惟宏 (2000),機構法人從眾行為之研究-以國內股市集中交易市場為例 (碩士論文) ,國立政治大學企業管理學系,台北市。
二、 英文文獻
Adler, R. P. & A. J. Christopher (1998). Internet Community Primer- Overview and Business Opportunity, http://www.digiplaces.com
Antweiler, W. & Frank, M. Z. (2004). Is all that talk just noise? The information content of internet stock message boards. Journal of Finance, 59 (3), 1259-1293.
Armstrong, A., & J. Hagel (1997). The real value of on-line communities, Harvard Business Review.
Banerjee, A. V., (1992). A simple model of herd behavior. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107 (3), 423-447.
Bank, M., Larch, M., & Peter, G., (2011). Google search volume and its influence on liquidity and returns of German stocks. Financial markets and portfolio management, 25, 239-264.
Beamish, A. (1995). Communities On-line: Community-Based Computer Network. (Master’s thesis), Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Bikhchandani, S., Hirshleifer, D., & Welch, I., (1992). A theory of fads, fashion, custom, and cultural change as informational cascades. Journal of Political Economy, 100 (5), 992-1026.
Black, F. (1986). “Noise”, Journal of Finance, 41, 529-543.
Bressler, S. E., & Grantham, C. E. (2000). Communities of commerce:Building Internet business communities to accelerate growth, minimize risk, and increase customer loyalty. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Carver, C. (1999). Building a Virtual Community for a Tele-Learning Environment. IEEE Communications Magazine, 37 (3), 114-118.
Chang, E. C., Cheng, J. W., & Khorana, A., (2000).An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective. Journal of Banking and Finance, 24 (10), 1651-1679.
Chen, Y., & Liu, X. Y. (2015). Research on identification of opinion leaders based on social network analysis. Information science, 33 (04), 13-19.
Cohen, A. P., (1985). The symbolic construction of community. Ellis Horwood, Chichester,UK.
Devenow, A., & Welch, I. (1996). Rational herding in financial economoics. European Economic Review, 40, 603-615.
Fama, E.F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work, Journal of Finance, 25, 383-417.
Fernback, J. & B. Thompson (1995), “Virtual Communities: abort, retry, failure?”, http://www.ewll.com/user/hlr/texts/Vccivil.html/
Grossman, S. J., & Stiglitz, J. E. (1980). On the impossibility of informationally efficient markets. American Economic Review, 70 (3), 393-408.
Hillery, G. A. (1995).Definition of community:areas of agreement. Rural Sociology, 2, 111-123.
Hu Zhengrong (2015). The Key & Path of the Integration of Traditional Media and Emerging Media. News and Writing, 2015 (05), 22-26.
Hwang S. & M. Salmon, (2004). Market stress and herding, Journal of Empirical Finance, 11, 584-616.
Ivković, Z., & Jegadeesh, N., (2004). The timing and value of forecast and recommendation revisions, Journal of Financial Economics, 73 (3), 433-463.
Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos (1979), Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47 (2), 263-91.
Kavanaugh, A., Zin, T. T., Carroll, J. M., Schmitz, J., Pérez-Quiñones, M., & Isenhour, P.(2006). When opinion leaders blog: New forms of citizen interaction. ACM international conference proceeding series, 2006 International Conference on digital government research, 79-88.
Koh, J. & Kim, Y. G. (2004). Knowledge Sharing in Virtual communities: an E-business Perspective. Expert Systems with Applications, 26 (2), 155-166.
Kross, W., B. Ro & O. Schroeder (1990). Earnings Expectation: The Analysts’ Information Advantage, The Accounting Review, 65 (2), 461-476.
Lazarsfeld, P. F., Berelson, B. & Gaudet, H. (1944). The people’s choice: how the voter makes up his mind in a presidential campaign. New York: Duell, Sloan and Pearce.
Lee, F. S., L. D. Vogel & M. Limayem (2003). Virtual Community Informatics: a Review and Research Agenda. Journal of Information Technology Theory and Application, 5 (1), 47-61.
Luqiu, L. R., Schmierbach, M., & Yu-Leung, N. (2019). Willingness to follow opinion leaders: A case study of Chinese Weibo. Computers in Human Behavior, 101, 42-50.
Mancuso, Joseph R. (1969). Why not Create Opionion Leaders for New Product Introductions?. Journal of Marketing, 33 (3), 20-25.
Mizrach, Bruce & Susan Weerts (2009), Experts Online: An Analysis of Trading Activity in a Public Internet Chat Room. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 70 (1), 266-281.
Philip Kotler. (1998). Marketing Management (10th ed.). Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Prentice Hall, Inc.
Preece, J. (2000). Online Communities: Designing Usability, Supporting Sociability. New York: Wiley.
Rheingold, H. (1993). The virtual community: Homesteading on the electronic frontier. New York: Addison-Wesley.
Roger, E.M. & F. Flovd, Shoemaker (1971). Communication of Innovation: A Cross-Cultural Approach. New York: Free Press.
Rogers, E. (1983). Diffusion of Innovations (3rd ed.). New York: Free Press.
Romm, C., N. Pliskin, & R. Clarke (1997). Virtual Communities and Society: Toward an Integrative Three Phase Model. International Journal of Information Management, 17 (4), 261-270.
Rothaermel, F. T., & Sugiyama, S. (2001). Virtual internet communities and commercial success: Individual and community-level theory grounded in the atypical case of TimeZone.com. Journal of Management, 27 (3), 297-312.
Shefrin, H. & M. Statman (1985). The disposition to sell winners too early and ride losers too long: Theory and evidence. Journal of Finance ,40, 777-790.
Shefrin, Hersh (2000). Beyond greed and fear: Understanding behavioral finance and the psychology of investing. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Shleifer, Andrei, & Lawrence H. Summers, (1990). The Noise Trader Approach to Finance. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4 (2), 19-33.
Tarun Chordia, Richard Roll & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam (2000). Commonality in liquidity. Journal of Financial Economics, 56 (1), 3-28.
Tumarkin, Robert & Robert F. Whitelaw (2001). News or Noise? Internet Postings and Stock Prices. Financial Analysts Journal, 57 (3), 41-51.
Vlastakis, N. & Markellos, R. N.(2012). Information Demand and Stock Market Volatility. Journal of Banking and Finance, 36 (6), 1808-1821.
Wall, J. (1993). Global networking for local development: Task focus and relationship focus in cross-cultural communication, in Harasim, L.M. (eds.), Global Networks, (153-166), Cambridge: MIT Press.
Weeks, B. E., Ardèvol-Abreu, A., & Gil de Zúñiga, H. (2015). Online influence? Social media use, opinion leadership, and political persuasion. International. Journal of Operational Research, 29 (2), 214-239.
Wellman, B., & M Gulia (1999). Virtual Communities as Communities: Net Surfers Don’t Ride Alone. Communities in cyberspace (167-194), New York: Routledge.
Xiaohui Gao, & Tse-Chun Lin, (2015). Do Individual Investors Treat Trading as a Fun and Exciting Gambling Activity? Evidence from Repeated Natural Experiments, The Review of Financial Studies, 28 (7), 2128-2166.

無法下載圖示 全文公開日期 2022/06/22 (校內網路)
全文公開日期 2024/06/22 (校外網路)
全文公開日期 2024/06/22 (國家圖書館:臺灣博碩士論文系統)
QR CODE