Author: |
方豪 Hao Fang |
---|---|
Thesis Title: |
使用金融科技作法應用於金融市場中股票市場及銀行部門的研究 The Application Study of Using Fintech Approaches to the Stock Market and Banking Sector of Financial Markets |
Advisor: |
謝劍平
Joseph C. P. Shieh |
Committee: |
盧陽正
Yang-Cheng Lu 林建甫 Chien-Fu Jeff Lin 陳俊男 Chun-Nan Chen 聶建中 Chien-Chung Nieh 鄭宗記 Tsung-Chi Cheng 謝劍平 Joseph C.P. Shieh |
Degree: |
博士 Doctor |
Department: |
管理學院 - 財務金融研究所 Graduate Institute of Finance |
Thesis Publication Year: | 2022 |
Graduation Academic Year: | 110 |
Language: | 英文 |
Pages: | 101 |
Keywords (in Chinese): | 金融科技 、文本探勘 、網路爬蟲 、投資人情緒 、股票報酬 、政黨傾向 |
Keywords (in other languages): | Fintech, Text Mining, Web Crawler, Investors’ Sentiments, Stock Returns, Political Party Tendency |
Reference times: | Clicks: 1010 Downloads: 1 |
Share: |
School Collection Retrieve National Library Collection Retrieve Error Report |
本文應用金融科技的的做法,包括網路爬蟲及語意文本探勘,來建立信息變數,以設計模型並探討“投資人情緒信息對股票報酬的影響”及“廠商政黨傾向信息對銀行貸款合約的影響”。首先、本文採用分布式架構的網路爬蟲以大幅爬網路媒體新聞的文本,並使用語意文本探勘以創造正向及負向情緒變數,藉此探討投資人情緒對股票報酬的影響。也就是說,本研究探討投資人正向及負向情緒對個股的報酬及報酬波動性的同時影響。同時,本文進一步調查投資人一般情緒和大幅情緒對股票報酬的可能差異。第二、本文使用語意文本探勘法建構兩個時間變異的政治關聯(PC)指標,以衡量廠商朝向執政及反對黨的政治傾向強度。具體而言,本文檢測和執政黨聯結的變異PC廠商是否相較和反對黨聯結的那些廠商能獲得更多偏好的貸款條件。再者,本文調查固定PC廠商及支持兩政黨的低忠誠廠商是否相較變異PC廠商獲得較少貸款條件的財務報酬。進而,本文檢測對公營銀行有變異政黨傾向的PC效應是否相較對民營銀行的該效應更為強烈。
就投資人情緒對股票報酬影響的結果,本研究首先發現投資人樂觀情緒的廠商在當月有顯著較高的股票報酬,然而投資人悲觀情緒的廠商則有顯著反向效應。投資人樂觀及悲觀情緒對股票報酬的影響後續會反轉。接續、投資人大幅悲觀情緒對股票報酬的負向影響在一季之內相較於其大幅樂觀情緒的正向影響為大。其次、投資人樂觀情緒會顯著提升股票報酬波動達接近一季,但其悲觀情緒則有相反影響。進而、投資人高的樂觀情緒相較其一般樂觀情緒會更顯著且持續地提升股票報酬波動性,但其高的悲觀情緒對波動性的負向影響相較一般悲觀情緒變為較小且持續性較短。
就廠商政黨傾向對貸款合約影響的結果,本研究首先發現在選舉年廠商更可能對預期贏的政黨增加其PC傾向。相反地、支持反對黨的廠商會逐年顯示或隱藏其PC傾向。和執政黨聯結的PC廠商有較低的貸款利率及偏好的非利率貸款條件(如較長貸款期間或較大貸款量等),然而和反對黨相關的廠商則沒有。和執政黨聯結的固定PC廠商不總是獲得貸款條件的好處,然而和反對黨聯結的固定PC廠商可能甚至得到偏好的貸款合約。再者,和兩個政黨聯結的PC廠商不會得到偏好的貸款合約。最後,對公營銀行有變異政黨傾向的PC效應相較對民營銀行的該效應較為強烈。
This research applies fintech ways, comprising distributed web crawler and text mining, to establish information variables, to design model and to explore empirical results of the effect of “the information of investor sentiments on stock returns” and the effect of “the information of firm party tendency on bank loan contracts”. First, this study adopts distributed web crawler to largely crawl text from network news and uses text mining to establish positive and negative sentiment variables to analyze the impacts of investor sentiments on stock returns. Specifically, the effects of investors’ optimistic and pessimistic sentiments on individual stocks’ returns and their volatility are explored. Meanwhile, the impacts of the investors’ large sentiments on stock returns are further investigated. Second, this study uses the linguistic text mining method to construct two time-varying PC indexes to measure the strength of a firm’s political tendencies toward the ruling and opposite parties. Specifically, whether the varying PC firms connected to the ruling party obtain more preferential loan terms than those connected to the opposition party are examined. Moreover, whether the fixed PC firms and lower loyal firms of supporting two parties obtain fewer financial rewards in terms of loan terms than the varying PC firms are investigated. Furthermore, whether the PC effect with varying political tendencies for government-owned banks is stronger than for privately-owned banks is examined.
With regard to the effects of investors’ sentiments on stock returns, this study first finds that the stock returns of the companies which have investors’ optimism are evidently higher in that month, but those which have pessimism turn to evidently contrary directions. Then, investors’ optimism evidently promotes stock volatility close to a quarter, whereas their pessimism turns to the contrary directions. Moreover, investors’ largely optimistic sentiments more evidently and persistently promotes stock volatility than their general optimistic sentiments, whereas the negative impacts of their largely pessimistic sentiments on volatility turn to be smaller and the persistence is shorter compared with general pessimistic sentiments.
In terms of the impact of firm’s party tendencies on loan contracts, this study first finds that firms are more likely to increase their PC tendencies toward the expected winning party during election years. By contrast, firms that support the opposition party show or hide their PC tendencies over the years. The PC firms connected to the ruling party have lower loan rates and preferential non-rate loan terms, whereas those associated to the opposition party do not. Fixed PC firms connected to the ruling party do not always gain benefits on loan terms, whereas fixed PC firms connected to the opposition party may even receive preferential loan contracts. Moreover, PC firms connected to the two parties do not receive preferential loan contracts. Finally, the PC effect with varying political tendencies is stronger for government-owned than privately-owned banks.
Reference
Avery, C.N., Chevalier, J.A. and Zeckhauser, R.J., 2016. The “CAPS” prediction system and stock market returns. Review of Finance, 20 (4), 1363-1381.
Altman, E.I., 1968. Financial ratios, discriminant analysis, and the prediction of corporate of bankruptcy. Journal of Finance, 23, 589-609.
Antweiler, W., and Frank, M.Z., 2004. Is all that talk just noise? the information content of internet stock message boards. Journal of Finance, 59(3), 1259–1294.
Baker, M., and Wurgler, J., 2006. Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock returns. Journal of Finance, 61, 1645-1680.
Baker, M., and Wurgler, J., 2007. Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21, 129-157.
Bertrand, M., Kramarz, F., Schoar, A., and Thesmar, D., 2004. Politically connected CEOs and corporate outcomes: Evidence from France. Working Paper.
Brown, G.W., and Cliff, M.T., 2005. Investor sentiment and asset valuation. Journal of Business, 78 (2), 405-440.
Brown, P.F., Pietra, S.A., Della, P., Vincent, J., Della, J.F., Lafferty, J. D., Mercer, R.L., and Roossin, P.S., 1990. A statistical approach to machine translation. Computational Linguistics,16 (2), 79-85.
Brown, W., and Cliff, M., 2004. Investor sentiment and the Near-term stock market. Journal of Empirical Finance, 11(1), 1-27.
Bollen, J., Mao, H., and Zeng, X.J., 2011. Twitter mood predicts the stock market. Journal of Computational Science, 2 (1),1-8.
Chen, H., De, P., Hu, Y.J., and Hwang, B.H., 2014. Wisdom of crowds: the value of stock opinions transmitted through social media. Review of Financial Studies, 27 (5), 1367-1403.
Chen, Y.S., Shen, C.H., and Lin, C.Y., 2014. The benefits of political connection: Evidence from individual bank-loan contracts. Journal of Financial Services Research, 45(3), 287-305.
Claessens, E., Feijen, E., and Laeven, L., 2008, Political connections and preferential access to Finance: The role of campaign contributions. Journal of Financial Economics, 88, 554-580.
Cooper, M.J., Gulen, H., and Ovtchinnikov, A.V., 2010. Corporate political contributions and stock returns. Journal of Finance, 65, 687–724.
Da, Z., Engelberg, J., and Gao, P., 2015. The sum of all FEARS: Investor sentiment and asset prices. Review of Finance Studies, 28 (1), 1-32.
Das, S.R., and Chen, M.Y., 2007. Yahoo! for amazon: Sentiment extraction from small talk on the web. Management Science, 53 (9), 1375-1388.
Dash, S.R., and Maitra, D., 2018. Does sentiment matter for stock returns? Evidence from Indian stock market using wavelet approach. Finance Research Letters, 26 (2018), 32-39.
Demers, E., and Vega, V., 2011. Linguistic tone in earnings press releases: News or noise? FRB International Finance Discussion Paper , 951.
Dinc, S., 2005. Politicians and banks: Political influences on government-owned banks in emerging markets. Journal of Financial Economics, 77, 453-479.
Faccio, M., Masulis, W.R., and Mcconnell, J.J, 2006. Mcconnell, political connections and corporate bailouts. The Journal of Finance, 86(6).
Frakes, W.B., Baeza-Yates, R., 1992. Information retrieval: Data structures and algorithms. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey.
Gentzkow, M., Shapiro, J. M., and Sinkinson, M., 2011. The effect of newspaper entry and exit on electoral politics. American Economic Review ,101, 2980-3018.
Goldman, E., Rocholl, J., and So, J., 2009. Do politically connected boards affect firm value? Review of Financial Studies, 22 (6), 2331-2360.
Graham, JR., Li, S., and Qiu, J., 2008. Corporate misreporting and bank-loan contracting. Journal of Financial Economics, 88, 44-61.
Grossman, G., and Helpman, E., 1994. Protection for sale. American Economic Review, 84, 833–850.
Hirshleifer, D., and Shumway, T., 2003. Good day sunshine: stock returns and the weather. The Journal of Finance, 58 (3), 1009-1032.
Houston, J., Jiang, G.L., Lin, C., and Ma, Y., 2014. Political connections and the costs of bank loans. Jounral of Accountiong Research, 52(1).
Infante, L., and Piazza, M., 2014. Political connections and lending at local level: Some evidence from the Italian credit market. Journal of Corporate Finance, 29, 246-262.
Kenski, K., and Stroud, N.J., 2006. Connections between internet use and political efficacy, knowledge, and participation. Journal of Broadcasting and Electronic Media, 50(2), 173-192.
Khwaja, A.I., and Mian, A., 2005. Do lenders favor politically connected firms? Rent provision in an emerging financial market. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120, 1371-1411.
Knight, B., 2006. Are policy platforms capitalized into equity prices? Evidence from the Bush/Gore 2000 presidential election. Journal of Public Economics, 90, 751–773.
Leeson, P.T., and Freedom, M., 2008. Political knowledge, and participation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(2), 155-169.
Leung, H., and Ton, T., 2015. The impact of internet stock message boards on cross-sectional returns of small-capitalization stocks. Journal of Banking and Finance, 55, 37-55.
Li, H., Meng, L., Wang, Q., and Zhou, L.A., 2008. Political connections, financing and firm performance: Evidence from Chinese private firms. Journal of Development Economics, 87, 283–299.
Lin, C.Y., Ho, P.H., Shen, C.H., and Wang, Y.C., 2016. Political connection, government policy, and investor trading: Evidence from an emerging market. International Review of Economics and Finance, 42, 153-166.
Lu, Y.C., Shen, C.H., and Wei, Y.C., 2013. Revisiting early warning signals of corporate credit default using linguistic analysis. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 24, 1-21.
Moat, H.S., Curme, C., Avakian, A., Kenett, D.Y., Stanley, H.E., and Preis, T., 2013. Quantifying wikipedia usage patterns before stock market moves. Scientific Reporrts, 3, 1-5.
Nguyen, T.H., Shirai, K., and Velcin, J., 2015. Sentiment analysis on social media for stock movement prediction. Expert Systems with Applications, 42, 9603-9611.
Oliveira, N., Cortez, P., and Areal, N., 2016. Stock market sentiment lexicon acquisition using microblogging data and statistical measures. Decision Support Systems, 85, 62–73.
Preis, T., Moat, H.S., and Stanley, H.E., 2013. Quantifying trading behavior in financial markets using Google trends. Scientific Reports, 3(1),1-6.
Sapienza, P., 2004. The effects of government ownership on bank lending. Journal of Financial Economics, 72, 357–384.
Saran, R.S., AarifAhamed, S., Rajmohan, R., and Guruprakash, K.S., 2021. Design and implementation of distributed web crawler for drug website search using hefty based enhanced bandwidth algorithms. Turkish Journal of Computer and Mathematics Education,12 (9),75-81.
Shen, C.H., Hasan, I., and Lin, C.Y., 2014. The government’s role in government-owned banks. Journal of Financial Services Research, 45, 307-340.
Shen, C.H., Lin, C.Y., and Wang, Y.C., 2015. Do strong corporate governance firms still require political connection, and vice versa? International Review of Economic and Finance, 39, 107-120.
Smales, A.L., 2017. The importance of fear: investor sentiment and stock market returns. Applied Economics, 49 (34), 3395-3421.
Sprenger, T.O., Sandner, P.G., Tumasjan, A., and Welpe, I.M., 2014. News or noise? using twitter to identify and understand company-specific news flow. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 41 (7-8), 791-830.
Su, Z.Q., Fung, H.G., Huang, D.S., and Shen, C.H., 2014. Cash dividends, expropriation, and political connections: Evidence from China. International Review of Economics and Finance, 29, 260–272.
Sun, L., Najand, M., and Shen, J., 2016. Stock return predictability and investor sentiment: A high-frequency perspective. Journal of Banking and Finance, 73, 147-164.
Tan, S., and Zhang, J., 2008. An empirical study of sentiment analysis for Chinese documents. Expert System with Applications, 34 (4), 2622-2629.
Tetlock, P.C., 2007. Giving content to investor sentiment: The role of media in the stock market. The Journal of The Finance, 62(3), 1139-1168.
Vega, C., 2006. Stock price reaction to public and private information. Journal of Financial Economics, 82 (1), 103-133.
Yang, D., Lu, Z., and Luo, D., 2014. Political connections, media monitoring and long-term loans. China Journal of Accounting, 7, 165-177.
Yang, Y., and Pedersen, J.O., 1997. A Comparative study on feature selection in text categorization, The International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 412–420.
Yarowsky, D., 1992. Word sense disambiguation using statistical models of Roget’s categories trained on large corpora. Proceedings of the 14th Conference on Comput.
Yazdani, S.F., Murad, M.A.A., and Sharef, N.M., 2017. Sentiment classification of financial news using statistical features. International Journal of Pattern Recognition and Artificial Intelligence, 31 (3), 1-34.
Nardo, M., Petracco, M., and Naltsidis, M., 2016. Walking down wall street with a tablet: A survey of stock market predictions using the web. Journal of Economic Surveys, 30 (2), 356–369.
Wang, H., Wang, Q., 2019. VIX and volatility forecasting: A new insight. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 533,121951.
段江娇,刘红忠,曾剑平.投资者情绪指数、分析师推荐指数与股指收益率的影响研究——基于我国东方财富网股吧论坛、新浪网分析师个股评级数据[J].上海金融,2014(11):60-64.