本研究主要是利用Cox比率危險模型分析2007年至2011年進駐在台灣育成中心內廠商的存活，以及找出影響這些廠商失敗風險的因素。本研究結果顯示，進駐廠商在育成期間的存活率都在0.79以上，而危險函數呈現倒U型，並在進駐後第四年達到最高約0.028。整體而言，進駐廠商的存活率高於台灣一般的中小企業，表示台灣的育成中心能有效地提升進駐廠商的存活率。本研究實證結果顯示，廠商年齡、員工人數、合約期間以及獨立廠商對危險率都有顯著的負向影響；負責人的性別對於危險率有顯著的影響；育成中心的類型和育成中心所在的地區對於進駐廠商的危險率也有顯著的影響。此外，為了使育成中心更有效地運作且不浪費社會資源，本研究建議將育成期間限制在四年以內。

This study attempts to analyze Taiwanese tenants’ survival and identify the determinants which affect their risk of failure from 2007 to 2011 using the Cox proportional hazard model. The survival rates of tenants in the incubation period are above 0.79 and the hazard function is in the form of an inverted U-shape which peaks at 0.028 in the fourth year. It implies that incubators in Taiwan can effectively nurture their tenants by increasing their survival. The empirical results show that firm-specific variables, such as firm’s age, the total employment, the length of incubation contract and the firm’s independence, have a significantly negative impact on the hazard rate. In respect of entrepreneurs’ characteristics, only gender is significant. In terms of incubators, the types of incubators and the located region of incubators are also significant. In order to nurture tenants more effectively, we suggest that the incubation contract period should be limited to a maximum of four years.

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