銀行對國家經濟發展舉足輕重，完善的金融制度是穩定國家經濟的基礎，如果能提前預測銀行財務困境的發生，便可以減少事件發生所造成的衝擊。此外，因為全球銀行業務多元化發展，對各國銀行而言，建立完善且有效的金融預警制度是必要且立即的。
為此，本研究以計量方法建構本國銀行財務困境預警模型，即銀行財務困境為應變數(Y)，並以美國CAMELS信用評級指標及台灣央行所創立之CARSEL信用評級指標為主要分析基礎，兩組信用評級指標共涵蓋八大面向，分別為C、A、M、E、L、S、R及SS。本研究將這些面向與國際金融政策、主管機關金融改革、金融相關法規標準等做連結，挑選出合適的量化指標作為本研究之自變數(X)。同時為考慮研究變數全面性，本研究亦將質化指標進行量化研究，例如，法令遵循制度上，以重大裁罰案件之裁罰金額、件數進行量化分析；針對金融科技近年熱門議題，如洗錢防制與資訊安全等，也納入研究變數中。此外，也因應國內系統性重要銀行(D-S Bs)之監理政策，將其加入虛擬變數中。
為考量時間序列與研究變數變動的關係，本研究利用panel data進行樣本資料蒐集，以提升實證結果的價值性；統計方法上，則以固定效果模型進行計量分析，並合理且客觀解讀以CAMELS與CARSEL信用評級指標所建構的財務困境模型對本國銀行財務困境的解釋力；最後，本研究建構一套比上述兩模型更具解釋力之新模型，並對銀行管理當局提出建議，及時糾正與改善我國銀行危機狀況。

Commercial banks play a pivotal role in its economy. While banking operating activities diversification can potentially cause distress, the financial distress model might help banks to avoid this situation.
This study aims to develop a financial distress model which makes a better prediction of banking distress, as well as better identifying the predictors of financial distress for Taiwanese commercial banks. Basing on CAMELS and CARSEL ratings in total of eight aspects, namely Capital adequacy (C) , Asset quality (A), Management (M), Earnings (E), Liquidity (L), Sensitivity to market risk(S), Regulations compliance (R)、Strategies and Stability (SS), this study selects appropriate parameters as the independent variables(X).
This study not only follows international financial rules and national policies enhancing the explanation, but also tries to transform more qualitative indicators into quantitative indicators being more comprehensive. For example, in Regulation compliance, major penalties about money laundering prevention and information security could be variables in the research. In addition, this study adds variable in response to the supervision policy of the domestic systemic important banks (D-S Bs).
In the end, to construct high significance levels and good explanatory power in the model, this study uses several statistical methods such as descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation analysis, variance inflation faction, and multiple regression analysis. In the contribution, based on financial ratios containing all other banks’ value and results in this study, it is useful to bankers and regulators to identify banking problems in Taiwan.

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