研究生: |
陳慶偉 Kurniawan - Tanuwijaya |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
根據模糊時間序列及分群技術以作模糊預測之新方法 Fuzzy Forecasting Methods Based on Fuzzy Time Series and Clustering Techniques |
指導教授: |
陳錫明
Shyi-Ming Chen |
口試委員: |
呂永和
Yung-Ho Leu 李惠明 Huey-Ming Lee 陳榮靜 Rung-Ching Chen |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
電資學院 - 資訊工程系 Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering |
論文出版年: | 2009 |
畢業學年度: | 97 |
語文別: | 英文 |
論文頁數: | 122 |
外文關鍵詞: | Clustering techniques |
相關次數: | 點閱:151 下載:0 |
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Fuzzy time series forecasting models have been used to make prediction in many areas, such as to forecast the stock price, the university enrollments, the weather, etc. Many fuzzy forecasting methods have been presented to get better forecasting accuracy rates than the traditional models. If we can get better forecasting accuracy rates, then we can get more advantages.
In this thesis, we present two new fuzzy forecasting methods based on fuzzy time series and clustering techniques. In the first method, we present a new method to handle forecasting problems based on fuzzy time series and clustering techniques. The proposed clustering algorithm is used to partition the universe of discourse into different lengths of intervals. We apply the first proposed method to forecast the enrollments of the University of Alabama, to predict the daily average temperature, and to predict the Taiwan Future Exchange (TAIFEX). In the second method, we present a multivariate fuzzy forecasting method to forecast the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) based on fuzzy time series and clustering techniques. The proposed clustering algorithm is slightly different compared with the first method and is used to partition the universe of discourse into different lengths of intervals. The proposed method not only uses the training data, but also uses the already known testing data for dealing with the prediction to get a higher forecasting accuracy rate. The proposed two methods get higher forecasting accuracy rates than the existing methods.
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