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研究生: 陳慶偉
Kurniawan - Tanuwijaya
論文名稱: 根據模糊時間序列及分群技術以作模糊預測之新方法
Fuzzy Forecasting Methods Based on Fuzzy Time Series and Clustering Techniques
指導教授: 陳錫明
Shyi-Ming Chen
口試委員: 呂永和
Yung-Ho Leu
李惠明
Huey-Ming Lee
陳榮靜
Rung-Ching Chen
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 電資學院 - 資訊工程系
Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering
論文出版年: 2009
畢業學年度: 97
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 122
外文關鍵詞: Clustering techniques
相關次數: 點閱:151下載:0
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  • Fuzzy time series forecasting models have been used to make prediction in many areas, such as to forecast the stock price, the university enrollments, the weather, etc. Many fuzzy forecasting methods have been presented to get better forecasting accuracy rates than the traditional models. If we can get better forecasting accuracy rates, then we can get more advantages.
    In this thesis, we present two new fuzzy forecasting methods based on fuzzy time series and clustering techniques. In the first method, we present a new method to handle forecasting problems based on fuzzy time series and clustering techniques. The proposed clustering algorithm is used to partition the universe of discourse into different lengths of intervals. We apply the first proposed method to forecast the enrollments of the University of Alabama, to predict the daily average temperature, and to predict the Taiwan Future Exchange (TAIFEX). In the second method, we present a multivariate fuzzy forecasting method to forecast the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) based on fuzzy time series and clustering techniques. The proposed clustering algorithm is slightly different compared with the first method and is used to partition the universe of discourse into different lengths of intervals. The proposed method not only uses the training data, but also uses the already known testing data for dealing with the prediction to get a higher forecasting accuracy rate. The proposed two methods get higher forecasting accuracy rates than the existing methods.

    Abstract Acknowledgements Contents List of Figures and Tables Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Motivation 1.2 Related Literature 1.3 Organization of This Thesis Chapter 2 Fuzzy Set Theory and Fuzzy Time Series 2.1 Basic Concepts of Fuzzy Sets 2.2 Fuzzy Time Series 2.3 Forecasting with Fuzzy Time Series 2.4 Summary Chapter 3 Clustering Algorithms 3.1 An Automatic Clustering Algorithm 3.2 An Average-Link Hierarchical Clustering Algorithm for Generating Intervals from Numerical Data 3.3 A Single-Link Hierarchical Clustering Algorithm for Generating Intervals from Numerical Data 3.4 Summary Chapter 4 Handling Forecasting Problems Using Fuzzy Time Series and Clustering Techniques 4.1 A New Method for Handling Forecasting Problems Based on the Fuzzy Time Series and the Proposed Clustering Algorithm 4.2 Experimental Results 4.2.1 Forecast Enrollment Based on the Proposed Method using One-Factor First Order Fuzzy Time Series 4.2.2 Forecast Enrollment Based on the Proposed Method using One-Factor Second-Order Fuzzy Time Series 4.2.3 Temperature Prediction Based on the Proposed Method using Two-Factors Third-Order Fuzzy Time Series 4.2.4 Forecasting the TAIFEX Based on the Proposed Method using Two-Factors Third-Order Fuzzy Time Series 4.3 Summary Chapter 5 Multivariate Fuzzy Forecasting Based on Fuzzy Time Series and Clustering Techniques 5.1 Forecasting the TAIEX Using the Proposed Method 5.2 Experimental Results 5.3 Summary Chapter 6 Conclusions 6.1 Contributions of This Thesis 6.2 Future Research References

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