隨著全球能源短缺、日本福島核災、PM2.5日趨嚴重及京都協議書減碳、巴黎氣候協議抑制溫升及發展智慧電網以利發展分散式能源等前提下，致推升潔淨風能已成為重要之能源發展趨勢，有鑑於此，如何透過精準之預測科技來推估風能，以減少資本支出、發電機組裝置容量及運轉維護費用，已成為各國電業聚焦議題。
本研究旨在運用測量相關推測法(Measure-Correlate-Predict, MCP)、風速機率分佈、風機功率曲線，以建立推估離岸風場之風速、風電產能及收益評估之方法。首先，採 MCP 推測法，係藉由目標風場附近測站之短期風速資料(測量資料Measure)與長期參考測站之風速資料間之統計關係，使用同時或重疊之時段連續風速資料(找出相關Correlate)，建立風場長期風速資料(預測Predict)再據此進行評估分析。惟目標風場附近測站之短期量測風速和參考測站之風速間之相關性，及參考測站風速資料之均勻特性和重疊期間之時間長度係影響預測之關鍵因素。其次，為評估運用參考測站所衍生風速之準確度，將目標風場附近測站之真實風速及所計算得之發電量等視為實績值，將參考測站所衍生風速及所計算得之發電量視為推估值，比較推估值與實績值之間差異，研究結果顯示兩者之均風速誤差率絕對值為0.00983%及發電量之最大誤差率絕對值1.89%。最後，將研究成果推廣應用至某特定離岸風場之財務分析，考量因素包含總建置成本、維護費及未來商轉收益，未來可做為評估開發風場投資效益之參考。

Clean wind energy has become an important energy option, with the Kyoto Protocol carbon reduction, the Paris climate agreement to curb the temperature rise and the PM2.5 issue. Therefore, it is critical to estimate wind energy accurately, in order to reduce capital cost, power capacity and operations & maintenance (O&M) costs. In general, there are more savings on total generation cost with a decrease in estimating errors for wind energy forecasts and with an increase in estimating accuracy for the day-ahead unit commitment schedule.
This study is mainly aimed to establish the method of estimating wind speeds, wind power and the profits for offshore wind farms by using Measure-Correlate-Predict (MCP), wind speed frequency distributions and wind turbine power curves. First of all, the main idea of MCP methods lies essentially in the correlation established between the wind data recorded at the target site and those simultaneously recorded at one or several different nearby weather stations as reference stations and where the long-term data are also estimated. Secondly, in order to upgrade the estimating accuracy for both the long-term wind speeds and the wind power at offshore wind farms, we will check the differences between the real results at the target site and the estimating results at reference stations. The maximum absolute error rates between the real results and the estimating results for the average wind speed and for the wind power are 0.00983% and 1.89% respectively. Finally, the research results will be applied to evaluate the investment efficiency for a specific offshore wind farm.

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