簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 王似尹
Szu-Yun Wang
論文名稱: 動能投資策略於台灣股票市場的研究
Study of Momentum Investment Strategy in Taiwan Stock Market
指導教授: 徐中琦
Jon-chi Shyu
口試委員: 張琬喻
Wan-yu Jang
林丙輝
Bing-huei Lin
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2006
畢業學年度: 94
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 159
中文關鍵詞: 動能投資策略動能生命週期
外文關鍵詞: momentum investment strategy, momentum life cycle.
相關次數: 點閱:211下載:4
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • 股票投資者所關心的不外乎就是股票投資績效,而動能策略在台灣股市是否適用則是本文研究的主題。依照Jegadeesh and Titman (1993)方法建構簡單動能投資組合;依照Lee and Swaminathan(2000)方法建構動能生命週期投資組合;依照Moskowitz and Grinblatt(1999-a)橫斷迴歸驗證動能變數和個股報酬的相關性,所有投資策略皆區分景氣循環和股市多空頭下作比較。變數方面延續Jegadeesh and Titman (1993)個股報酬和Moskowitz and Grinblatt (1999-a)產業報酬和Lee and Swaminathan(2000)個股報酬搭配個股週轉率,再另外加上規模、淨值市值比和外資持股比例。
    實證結果顯示:(一)動能生命週期投資組合相較於簡單動能投資組合更可以獲得較大顯著正報酬。(二)比較不同期間下可以獲得顯著正報酬的獲利順序為股市空頭>景氣擴張>全期間>股市多頭。(三)在所有簡單動能投資組合中,比較不同變數下可以獲得顯著正報酬的獲利順序為淨值市值比>產業報酬>個股報酬。(四)在所有動能生命週期投資組合中,比較個股報酬搭配不同變數下可以獲得顯著正報酬的獲利順序為淨值市值比>外資持股比率>週轉率>規模。(五)在比較不同持有期程度下可以獲得顯著正報酬的獲利順序為持有期三個月>持有期六個月>持有期十二個月。


    What stock investors care is the performance of stock investment. The topic of this study is that whether momentum investment strategies are applicatory in Taiwan stock market. According to Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), we build simple momentum portfolios; according to Lee and Swaminathan(2000), we establish momentum life cycle portfolios; and finally according to Moskowitz and Grinblatt(1999-a), we apply cross-sectional regressions to investigate the correlation among individual return and momentum variables. We examine all the momentum investment strategies under different business cycles and situations of the stock market. When it comes to the variables that are focused, we continue to use individual return of Jegadeesh and Titman(1993), industry return of Moskowitz and Grinblatt(1999-a), individual return and turnover of Lee and Swaminathan(2000), and also plus size, book-to-market equity, and the ratio of foreign investment.
    Empirical results are as follows:(1)Momentum life cycle portfolios can more easily create significant positive return than simple momentum portfolios. (2)The order of getting significant positive return is bear market>the expansion of business cycle>all horizon>bull market. (3)The order of getting significant positive return based on all simple momentum portfolios is book-to-market equity>industry return>individual return. (4)The order of getting significant positive return based on all momentum life cycle portfolios is book-to-market equity>the ratio of foreign investment>turnover >size. (5)The order of getting significant positive return based on the different horizon of holding periods is holding periods of 3 months>holding periods of 6 months>holding periods of 12 months.

    中文摘要……………………………………………………………………………Ⅰ 英文摘要……………………………………………………………………………Ⅱ 目錄…………………………………………………………………………………III 圖目錄………………………………………………………………………………V 表目錄………………………………………………………………………………VI 第壹章 緒論………………………………………………………………………1 第一節 研究背景與動機…………………………………………………………1 第二節 研究目的…………………………………………………………………6 第三節 研究限制…………………………………………………………………7 第四節 研究架構…………………………………………………………………7 第貳章 文獻探討…………………………………………………………………10 第一節 動能策略的有效性………………………………………………………10 第二節 動能策略的獲利性來源…………………………………………………15 第參章 研究方法………..………………………………………………………26 第一節 樣本說明…………………………………………………………………26 第二節 變數定義…………………………………………………………………27 第三節 投資組合和形成期與持有期的定義……………………………………32 第四節 實證方法…………………………………………………………………34 第肆章 實證結果與分析…………………………………………………………56 第一節 動能策略的有效性………………………………………………………56 第二節 動能策略的相關性-橫斷面迴歸………………………………………109 第伍章 結論與建議………………………………………………………………123 第一節 研究結論…………………………………………………………………123 第二節 研究建議…………………………………………………………………128 參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………131 中文文獻………………………………………………………………………131 英文文獻………………………………………………………………………132 附錄…………………………………………………………………………………135 附錄一:橫斷面迴歸實證結果第一組迴歸式(全期間)………………………135 附錄二:橫斷面迴歸實證結果第一組迴歸式(股市多頭)……………………138 附錄三:橫斷面迴歸實證結果第一組迴歸式(股市空頭)……………………141 附錄四:橫斷面迴歸實證結果第一組迴歸式(景氣擴張)……………………144 附錄五:橫斷面迴歸實證結果第一組迴歸式(景氣收縮)……………………147 附錄六:橫斷面迴歸實證結果第二組迴歸式(全期間)………………………150 附錄七:橫斷面迴歸實證結果第二組迴歸式(股市多頭)……………………152 附錄八:橫斷面迴歸實證結果第二組迴歸式(股市空頭)……………………154 附錄九:橫斷面迴歸實證結果第二組迴歸式(景氣擴張)……………………156 附錄十:橫斷面迴歸實證結果第二組迴歸式(景氣收縮)……………………158

    一、中文文獻
    1.呂惠珠(2004),利用外資的公開資訊採行動量策略之研究,朝陽科技大學財務金融所碩士論文。
    2.陳鴻崑(2000),「動量週期與成交量之研究」,淡江大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
    3.莊坤達(2003),股價動量之驅動因子、投資行為、與動量投資策略之建構,國立交通大學經營管理系碩士論文。
    4.郭芝君(2004),「台灣電子類股動能策略之研究」,國立中興大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
    5.劉盈攸(2000),「產業對股市投資策略之影響」,國立中央大學財務管理研究所碩士論文。
    6.鄭中誠(2003),探討公司特徵變數對動能策略之影響,大葉大學事業經營研究所碩士論文。
    7.蘇永裕(2002),「追漲殺跌策略報酬與景氣循環之間互動關係之研究」,雲林科技大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
    8.李淵楷(2003),「以市場參與者行為模型假說解釋動能效果週轉率效果及動能生命週期現象」, 國立臺灣大學財務金融學研究所碩士論文。

    二、英文文獻
    1.Banz, R. W. 1981, The relationship between return and market value of common stocks, Journal of Economics, Vol.6, pp.103-126.
    2.Barberis, N., A. Shleifer, and T. Vishny, 1998, A model of investor sentiment,Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 49, 307-343.
    3.Berk, Jonathan, Richard Green, and Vasant Naik, 1999, Optimal investment, growth options, and security returns, Journal of Finance 54, p 1533-1607.
    4.Chan, L. K. C., Jegadeesh, N., & Lakonishok, J. 1996, Momentum strategies, Journal of Finance, Vol.51, pp.1681-1713.
    5.Conard, J. S. and G. Kaul, 1998, An anatomy of trading strategies, The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 11, 489-519.
    6.Chordia, T. and L. Shivakumar, 2002, Momentum, business cycle, and time-varing expected returns, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 57, 985-1019.
    7.De Bondt, W. F. M. & Thaler, R. 1985, Does the stock market overreact?, Journal of Finance, Vol.40, pp.793-905.
    8.Daniel, K., D. Hirshleifer, and A. Subrahmanyam, 1998, Investor psychology and security market under- and overreactions, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 53,1839-1886.
    9.Daniel, K. & Titman, S. 1999, Market efficiency in an irrational world, Finance Analysts Journal, Vol. 55, pp.28-40.
    10.Edwards, W. 1968, Conservatism in Human Information Processing, in B. Kleinmutz, eds., Formal Representation of Human Judgment, New York: John Wiley and Sons.
    11.Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. 1992, The cross-section of expected stock returns, Journal of Finance, Vol.47, pp.427-465.
    12.Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. 1993, Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.33, pp.3-56.
    13.Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. 1996, Multifactor explanations of asset pricing anomalies, Journal of Finance, Vol.51, pp.55-84.
    14.Grundy, B. and J. S. Martin, 2001, Understanding the nature of the risks and the source of the rewards to momentum investing. Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 29-78.
    15.Hong, H. & Stein, J. C. 1999, A unified theory of underreaction, momentum trading and overreaction in asset markets, Journal of Finance Vol.54, pp.2143-2184.
    16.Hong, H., Lim, T., & Stein, J. C. 2000, Bad news travels slowly: Size, analyst coverage, and the profitability of momentum Strategies, Journal of Finance, Vol.55, pp.265-295.
    17.Hameed, Allaudeen, and Yuanto Kusnadi, 2002, Momentum strategies: Evidence from pacific basin stock markets, Journal of Financial Research, Vol. 25, No.3, pp. 383-397.
    18.Jegadeesh, N. & Titman, S. 1993, Returns to buying winners and selling losers:Implications for stock market efficiency, Journal of Finance, Vol.48, pp.65-91.
    19.Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A., 1982, Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds., Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. London: Cambridge University Press.
    20.Levy, R., 1967, Relative Strength as a Criterion for Investment Selection, Journal of Finance 22, 595-610.
    21.Lo, A. and Mackinlay, C., 1990, When are contrarian profit due to stock market overreaction?, Review of Financial Studies, 3, 175-205.
    22.Lee, C. M. C. & Swminathan, B. 2000, Price momentum and trading volume, Journal of Finance, Vol.55, pp.2017-2069.
    23.Moskowitz, Tobias J., and Mark Grinblatt, 1999-a, Do industyies explain momentum? Journal of Finance, Vol.54, pp.1249-1290.
    24.Moskowitz, Tobias J., and Mark Grinblatt, 1999-b, The cross section of expected returns and its relation to past return:New Evidence, Working paper, University of Chicago.
    25.Rouwenhorst, K. G. 1998, International momentum strategies, Journal of Finance, Vol.53, pp.267-284.
    26.Sharpe, W. F., 1964, Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 19, 425-442.

    無法下載圖示 全文公開日期 2011/06/29 (校內網路)
    全文公開日期 本全文未授權公開 (校外網路)
    全文公開日期 本全文未授權公開 (國家圖書館:臺灣博碩士論文系統)
    QR CODE