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Author: 曾仲鳴
Chung-Ming Tseng
Thesis Title: 面板破片可靠度規格及風險評估預測模型之研究
Reliability Specification and Risk Estimation Prediction Model Research for Display Broken
Advisor: 陳正綱
Cheng-Kang Chen
Committee: 欒斌
Pin Luarn
葉穎蓉
Ying-Jung Yeh
Degree: 碩士
Master
Department: 管理學院 - 管理研究所
Graduate Institute of Management
Thesis Publication Year: 2019
Graduation Academic Year: 107
Language: 中文
Pages: 62
Keywords (in Chinese): 可靠度面板預測風險評估
Keywords (in other languages): Reliablity, Display, Prediction, Risk Estimatioon
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  • 失效模式的風險評估一直是企業的一個重要的課題,如何在產品出貨前對失效模
    式的風險評估,更是一個需要謹慎處理的重要課題,一旦對問題的評估錯誤對於公司
    的經營損失更是難以估計的,尤其在這數位時代,社群媒體傳遞的力量與速度更是不
    容小歔,所造成的雪球效應,更讓企業要小心的處理市場上產品品質問題,避免錯誤
    評估失效模式,造成後續在市場上的影響力,本論文研究主題將探討台灣電子業界,
    企業是否能有機會在產品出貨前對所有的問題,做一正確的風險評估與正確的可靠度
    驗證計畫規格。

    為何會提到可靠度驗證規格?一般消費性電子產品製造商在產品研發階段,都會
    將其研發產品做一系列之可靠度驗證,期許藉由可靠度驗證計劃,盡可能找所有影響
    產品壽命之潛藏失效模式問題,並將其問題在設計階段解決,但也可能有一些問題並
    未能再量產前解決,或因錯誤的風險評估而決定不處理那些潛藏的失效模式問題,因
    此產生出另一課題,即為經由驗證之後找到的問題。企業如何去正確判斷評估問題在
    市場上將會造成之影響,這問題是否真正需要正視它,還是只是一個非常微小的問題
    對使用者一點影響都沒有,此研究將針對落摔測試之失效模式來探討如何評估,失效
    模式在市場影響程度及其風險評估。

    本研究有主要三個重點如下:第一個重點為找出落摔測試後面板破片問題與市場
    主要面片版破片反映的關係,進而產品設計特徵、可靠度驗證條件及可靠度驗證結果
    的相關自變數,與市場主要潛藏面板破片問題應變數之關係,繼而利用相關自變數去
    對應變數做相關的迴歸分析,使其應變數可以變成一個風險評估重要因子。也可利用
    這樣的迴歸預測分析做更深入的研究,去了解目前產品的可靠度驗證計畫與標準是否
    符合市場上使用者對此產品的品質要求與使用者行為模式,若不符合我們可以利用此
    模型來調整可靠度驗證規格與標準。

    最後,本研究將投入 46 個產品評測資料,其資料包含自變數產品設計特徵、產品
    落摔高度、落摔結果、變數面板破片失效模式以及面板破片概率。由於產品可靠度驗
    證計畫範圍過廣,本次研究將集中在特定落摔測試計畫、條件、結果及市場失效率,

    若研究成功可以將此邏輯概念想法做典範轉移並應用在其他的可靠度驗證計畫及市場
    失效模式後續研究。研究主題將著重在討論智慧型手機其市場潛藏面板破片率、產品
    設計特徵以及落摔試驗條件及測試結果探討,藉由此研究找到失效模式風險因子的預
    測模型可以當作在初期階段對產品的特定失效模式做正確的風險評估,與可靠度驗證
    計驗證條件的修正。


    The risk assessment of failure mode has always been an important issue for
    enterprises. How to assess the failure mode before the product is shipped, which is
    an important issue that needs to be handled with caution. Once the evaluation of the
    problem goes wrong, it is even more difficult for the company to lose business. It is
    estimated that, especially in this Network generation, the power of social media
    transmissions should not be underestimated. The snowball effective caused by
    enterprises should be more careful to deal with product quality problems in the market
    and avoid the mis-evaluation of failure modes. In the market's influence, the research
    theme of this paper will explore the Taiwan electronics industry, whether the company
    has the opportunity to make a correct risk assessment and correct reliability
    verification plan specifications for all problems before the product is shipped.
    Why do we mention reliability verification specifications here? In general, consumer
    electronics manufacturers will perform a series of reliability verification tests on their
    products during the product development phase. It is expected that the reliability
    verification plan will find all the potential failure modes that affect the life of the product
    as much as possible, and try to solve the problem in the development stage. But there
    may be some problems and it is not possible to solve the problem before the mass
    production or decide to do not deal with the potential failure mode problems due to the
    wrong risk assessment. Therefore, another problem arises, which is the problem found
    after verification. How to correctly judge and evaluate the impact of these problems on
    the market, whether the issue is a real problem needs to face it and solve it, or is it just
    a very small problem that has no any impact on the user, so the research will be based
    on drop test verification. The failure mode explores how to assess the impact of failure
    modes on the market and its risk assessment.

    Therefore, this paper has three main focuses. The first one focuses on finding the
    relationship between the failure mode problem and the main quality problems of the
    market after drop test verification and finding out its related to product design features,
    reliability verification conditions and reliability verification results. The relationship
    between the relevant independent variables and the number of strains related to the

    market's main return problem, and then using the relevant independent variables to
    correspond to the variables to make relevant regression analysis, so that the strain
    number can become an important factor of risk assessment, and can also use such
    regression prediction analysis to do more In-depth research to understand whether
    the current product reliability verification plan and standards could meet the quality
    requirements and user behavior patterns of users on the market. If so, we can use this
    model to adjust the reliability verification specifications and standards.
    Finally, this study will invest 46 sets of marketing products test data from related
    forums and websites, including the independent variable product design features,
    product drop test verification conditions, product verification results and strain number
    product failure mode potential display broken rate from user data. Due to the wide
    scope of product reliability verification programs, this study will focus on the drop test
    plan, conditions, results and market failure rate. If the research is successful, this
    logical, concept and idea can be transferred as a model and applied to other reliability.
    Follow-up study on verification plans and market failure modes. The research topic will
    focus on discussing the potential display broken ratio on the smartphones, the product
    design features, and the drop test conditions and test results in the research and
    development stage. The prediction model of the failure mode which risk factors is also
    studied. It can be used as a correct risk assessment for the specific failure mode of
    the product at the initial stage, and adjust with the drop test method, conditions and
    judgement criteria.

    目 錄 摘要 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 Abstract ---------------------------------------------------------------- 0 致謝 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 目錄 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 表目錄 ------------------------------------------------------------------ 3 圖目錄 ------------------------------------------------------------------ 4 第一章 緒論 ----------------------------------------------------------- 5 第一節 研究背景與動機 ---------------------------------------------- 5 第二節 研究目的 --------------------------------------------------- 6 第三節 研究範圍與資料來源 ------------------------------------------ 6 第四節 研究流程 ---------------------------------------------------- 8 第二章 文獻探討 -------------------------------------------------------- 9 第一節 統計回歸分析 ------------------------------------------------ 9 第二節 液晶面板強度研究相關文獻 ------------------------------------ 9 第三章 研究方法 -------------------------------------------------------- 13 第一節 資料初步檢視及剖析----------------------------------------------- 13 第二節 變數檢定 ---------------------------------------------------- 16 第三節 簡單線性回歸 ------------------------------------------------ 16 第四節 簡單線性回歸移除離群值--------------------------------------- 17 第四章 迴歸模型分析 ---------------------------------------------------- 19 第一節 雙變數複線性回歸模型 ---------------------------------------- 19 第二節 複線性回歸模型 ---------------------------------------------- 21 第三節 複回歸模型診斷 ---------------------------------------------- 22 第五章 新迴歸預測模型運用 ---------------------------------------------- 27 第一節 可靠度規格調整方法 ------------------------------------------ 27 第二節 風險因子制定 ------------------------------------------------ 28 第六章 結論與建議 ------------------------------------------------------ 30 第一節 結論 -------------------------------------------------------- 30 第二節 建議 -------------------------------------------------------- 31 第七章 附錄 ------------------------------------------------------------ 32 第八章 參考文獻 -------------------------------------------------------- 52

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