為了紓解辛勤的工作壓力以及日常生活的喧鬧嘈雜，旅遊成為人們生活不可或缺的一環。由於鐵路運輸的便利與經濟效益性，鐵路成為多數人旅遊時考量的主要運具，導致每逢假期時，鐵路運輸系統不易負荷龐大數量的旅客，據此本論文重點為從旅行社角度評估鐵路運輸系統的網絡可靠度(network reliability)以衡量該系統是否能滿足旅客需求，且此一網路可靠度可被視為運輸系統的承載績效指標。本研究將鐵路運輸系統建構為多階鐵路運輸網路(multistate railway transportation network, MRTN)，其中列車停靠站視為網路中之節點，連接兩停靠站間的傳輸邊則表示行駛於兩站間之列車；首先探討多階鐵路運輸網路在列車準點情況下滿足單一鐵路旅遊需求，因此多階鐵路運輸網路可靠度定義為鐵路運輸系統得以成功乘載一個特定的旅客車廂需求量從起站到訖站的機率；接著，為更貼近現實生活中繁忙擁擠的鐵路系統，本論文進一步將每列火車可能具有延遲的情況納入考量，當列車延遲下每條最小列車路徑(minimal train-path)將存在一連接機率性。本研究的兩個模型皆利用最小路徑的概念發展其演算法以評估鐵路運輸網路可靠度，而在延伸模型的可靠性計算中將另外加入最小路徑的連接機率;最後，並透過實際臺灣鐵路系統的案例來演示所提出演算法之程序，由旅行業者的角度針對此可靠度訊息進一步去探討其決策與管理意涵。

In order to relieve working pressure and daily hustle, tourism plays an indispensable role in people’s lives. For most travelers, railway transportation is the primary conveyance because of its convenience and cost-effective. Accordingly, it’s difficult to provide lots of travelers with train service, especially on holidays and special festivals. Significantly, to measure whether the railway transportation system can meet travelers’ requirements, this thesis focuses on investigating the network reliability of a railway transportation system from a travel agency perspective. In which, such network reliability can be treated as a carrying performance indicator. A railway transportation system can be modeled as a multistate railway transportation network (MRTN), in which each node represents a transfer station and each arc denotes a train carrying passengers between a pair of stations. This dissertation first considers a MRTN meeting single railway travel demand while trains are on schedule. Therefore, the network reliability of the MRTN is defined as the probability that a requested number of train carriages can be carried successfully from an origin to a final destination station. Moreover, a MRTN is further extended to each train may have delay conditions in the busy congested rail system. Under train delay consideration, a minimal train-path (MP) has a working probability that the connection still keeps. Regarding two models this study, the algorithms are proposed in terms of minimal paths to evaluate the network reliability. Additionally, the working probability of a MP is added to the reliability calculation in the extended model. Finally, a case study of the Taiwanese railway transportation system is utilized to demonstrate how to implement the proposed algorithms, and then discuss the managerial implications of the reliability to travel agency in their decision-making.

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