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研究生: 范武宏山
Pham - Vu Hong Son
論文名稱: Hybrid Bayesian Fuzzy Game Model for Improving the Negotiation Effectiveness of Construction Material Procurement
Hybrid Bayesian Fuzzy Game Model for Improving the Negotiation Effectiveness of Construction Material Procurement
指導教授: 呂守陞
Sou-Sen Leu
口試委員: 楊亦東
I-Tung Yang
謝佑明
Yo-Ming Hsieh
黃榮堯
Rong-Yau Ethan Huang
余文德
Yu, Wen-Der
潘乃欣
none
荷世平
Shih-Ping Ho
林建良
Lin, Chien-Liang
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 工程學院 - 營建工程系
Department of Civil and Construction Engineering
論文出版年: 2015
畢業學年度: 103
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 149
外文關鍵詞: Bilateral Negotiation, Construction Procurement
相關次數: 點閱:485下載:1
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Price negotiation is commonly required to reach a final contractual agreement during the construction material procurement. However, the uncertain and limited supplier information as well as complex correlations among various factors affects supplier behaviors, making learning a supplier’s negotiation strategy and deciding the appropriate offer price difficult for contractors. Therefore, a hybrid multi-strategy Bayesian fuzzy game model that can be applied in forecasting a supplier’s negotiation strategy was developed in this study. A validation analysis revealed that incorporating limited objective data and previous knowledge from experts into the Bayesian learning process can facilitate effectively determining causal relationships in a network as well as improving the accuracy of a learned model. By using the proposed model, contractors can effectively foresee the relationship between its alternative offer prices (OPs) and a supplier’s future bidding strategies. An experiment in which construction practitioners participated revealed that contractors can benefit by applying the forecasting ability of the model to increase the success rate and profit, reduce the time spent in unnecessary negotiation, and improve negotiation efficiency in the construction material procurement process.

Table of Contents ABSTRACTII ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSIV TABLE OF CONTENTSVII NOTATIONSIX LIST OF FIGURESXII LIST OF TABLESXV CHAPTER 11 1.INTRODUCTION1 1.1 INTRODUCTION: THE IMPORTANCE OF NEGOTIATION IN CONSTRUCTION PROCUREMENT1 1.2 RESEARCH SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES3 1.3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY5 1.4 MANAGEMENT RELEVANCE6 1.5 DISSERTATION ORGANIZATION7 CHAPTER 211 2.LITERATURE REVIEW11 2.1 GENERAL OVERVIEW OF PRICE NEGOTIATION IN CONSTRUCTION PROCUREMENT11 2.2 THE NEED AND REQUIREMENTS OF THE NEGOTIATION SUPPORT MODEL16 2.3 PREVIOUS STUDIES ON NEGOTIATION SUPPORT MODEL21 CHAPTER 328 3.MODEL CONSTRUCTION28 3.1 FACTORS AFFECTING NEGOTIATION PROCESS AND NEGOTIATION OUTCOMES.29 3.2 REASON FOR ADOPTING BAYESIAN FUZZY GAME PROCESS35 3.3 GAME THEORY (GT) MODEL38 3.4 FUZZY INFERENCE46 3.5 BAYESIAN ALGORITHM48 3.6 HYBRID FUZZY BAYESIAN GAME MODEL (BFGM)69 3.7 MULTI-STRATEGY BAYESIAN FUZZY GAME MODEL (MBFGM)73 3.8 HYBRID EXPERT-BASED STRUCTURAL EXPECTATION MAXIMIZATION GAME THEORY MODEL (EXSEM-GT)81 CHAPTER 487 4.MODEL IMPLEMENTATION87 4.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF GWAK AND SIM (2011) MODEL87 4.2 MODEL INITIAL INPUTS88 4.3 MODEL VALIDATION90 CHAPTER 5110 5.MODEL APPLICATION110 5.1 REAL EXPERIMENT STRUCTURE110 5.2 EVALUATION RESULTS111 5.3 APPLICATION OF PROPOSED MODEL IN DIFFERENCE ENVIRONMENT114 CHAPTER 6120 6.CONCLUSION AND FUTURE DIRECTION120 6.1 CONCLUSION120 6.2 FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTION121 REFERENCES124 APPENDIX138

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