簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

回結果列表
研究生： 艾瑪蘇
Erma - Suryani
論文名稱： 需求情境分析與產能擴充規劃:系統動態架構
Demand Scenario Analysis and Planned Capacity Expansion: a System Dynamics Framework
指導教授： 周碩彥
Shuo-Yan Chou
口試委員: 王孔政
Kung-Jeng Wang
王福琨
Fu-Kwun Wang
陳振明
Jen-Ming Chen
謝中奇
Chung-Chi Hsieh
謝光進
Kong-King Shieh
張聖麟
Sheng-lin Chang
學位類別： 博士
Doctor
系所名稱： 管理學院 - 工業管理系
Department of Industrial Management
論文出版年： 2010
畢業學年度： 98
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 103
中文關鍵詞： 需求預測 、動態系統 、模擬 、容量规划 、情境
外文關鍵詞： Demand forecasting, System dynamics, Simulation, Capacity planning, Scenario
相關次數： 點閱：454  下載：48 
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報

    • 本論文目的在於發展水泥與航空旅客需求預測之模型，該模型藉由發展出未來需求的不同情境並評估之，以達產能規劃之目的。本研究以系統動態模型來決定未來需求之情境，並且，分別基於樂觀與悲觀決策方式去預測二個案例研究的未來需求。
    在第一個案例研究裡，本文建立了一個由基礎建設、國內生產毛額與投資成長率等三要主要因素之國際消費需求模型。該模型評估了二個情境，第一個情境是假設每年需求成長約7%之下，個案是否進行產能擴充計畫。第二個情境是加入考量樂觀與悲觀決策方式，去修改基礎建設、國內生產毛額與投資成長率。研究發現，如果每年需求成長7%而個案沒有擴產計畫的話，在2011年將發生產能不足。假設年需求量以7%的速率成長，且公司可多提高500萬的產能；那麼，公司將能滿足其市場需求於2017年。相對地，當經濟成長緩慢時，在2020年之前，個案即便沒有擴產也可滿足市場需求。
    第二個研究案例是針對航空旅客的需求預測與產能擴充。本研究首先建立了一個測預未來航空旅客的需求模式，並進而分析各個情境之下的跑道與航廈之產能規劃。為了更健全本模型的敏感性分析，本文結合了結構性與參數性的情境以利分析。在結構性情境方面，本研究針對航空運費的因素來分析航廈內旅客流量的變化。在參數性情境方面，本研究建立樂觀與悲觀情境以預測未來的航空旅客量。研究結果發現，影響航空客運量最主要的因素包括航空運費、服務水準、國內生產毛額、人口數、每日航班數與等候時間。

    The purpose of this dissertation is to develop models for demand forecasting and capacity planning (for cement and air passenger). The models were used to evaluate some scenarios related to planned capacity expansion to meet the future demand. This research is focus on using system dynamics modeling to determine the future behavior of demand. Two case studies had been utilized to forecast demand based on optimistic and pessimistic projections.
    In the first study, we established a model of the national demand consumption consisting of three main drivers such as construction, GDP, and investment growths. The model is used to evaluate two scenarios. The first scenario depicted the structure scenario if demand is expected to grow around 7% annually without and with capacity expansion. The second scenario depicted the parameter scenario if we modified the value of the GDP growth, investment growth, and construction growth by considering the optimistic and pessimistic projections. We found that, if demand grows 7 % annually, without capacity expansion, there would be a shortage capacity in 2011. By expanding the capacity 5 million tonnes, with demand growth 7 % annually, the firm can cover the market demand until 2017. On the other hand, under slow growth in economic condition, with planned capacity expansion, firm can always satisfy the demand at least until 2020.
    The second case study is demand forecasting and terminal capacity expansion for the air passenger. This study is used to develop a model to forecast air passenger demand and to evaluate some scenarios related to runway and passenger terminal capacity expansion to meet the future demand. We combined between structure and parameter scenarios to generate more robust sensitivity analysis. In the structure scenario, we modified the structure of airfare impact and add new structure to determine the flow of passenger in terminal building. As parameter scenario, we developed optimistic and pessimistic scenarios to predict the future of air passenger demand. We found that airfare impact, level of service impact, GDP, population, number of flights per day and dwell time play an important roles in determining the air passenger volume.

    摘 要 I ABSTRACT II ACKNOWLEDGEMENT III CONTENTS IV LIST OF FIGURES VII LIST OF TABLES IX CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Demand forecasting and capacity expansion 1 1.2 Research purpose 1 1.3 Research objective 2 1.4 Research scope 2 1.5 Research questions 2 1.6 Hypothesized system behavior over time 2 1.7 Research contribution 3 1.8 Outline of document 4 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 5 2.1 Demand forecasting 5 2.2 Capacity expansion 8 2.3 Related research on demand forecasting and capacity management 10 2.4 Systems thinking 13 CHAPTER 3 SYSTEM DYNAMICS 16 3.1 System dynamics definition 16 3.2 System dynamics terminology and tools 17 3.2.1 Fundamental concepts of system dynamics 18 3.2.2 System dynamics modeling tools 21 3.3 Model boundary 21 3.4 Why use system dynamics 22 3.5 The system dynamics modeling process 24 3.5.1 Ford’s eight-step system dynamics modeling process 26 3.5.2 Sterman’s five-step system dynamics modeling process 28 3.6 Model validation 30 3.6.1 Types of models and model validity 31 3.6.2 Aspects of formal model validation 32 3.7 System dynamics software 35 CHAPTER 4 DEMAND SCENARIO ANALYSIS AND PLANNED CAPACITY EXPANSION(Case Study 1: Cement Manufacturing) 37 4.1 A Brief history of cement industry 37 4.2 Base model development of demand scenario analysis and planned capacity expansion 38 4.2.1 Order sub-model 40 4.2.2 Production sub-model 42 4.2.3 Inventory sub-model 43 4.2.4 Planned capacity sub-model 43 4.3 Parameter estimation (case study 1) 44 4.4 Model validation of cement demand 45 4.4.1 Base model run results 45 4.4.2 Validation of simulation based model 48 4.5 Scenario development of case study 1 50 4.5.1 Structure scenario 50 4.5.1.1 Demand is expected to grow 7% annually, without capacity expansion 50 4.5.1.2 Demand is expected to grow 7% annually, with planned capacity expansion 53 4.5.2 Parameter scenario 56 4.5.2.1 Optimistic scenario 56 4.5.2.2 Pessimistic scenario 59 4.6 Conclusion of case study 1 63 CHAPTER 5 DEMAND FORECASTING AND TERMINAL CAPACITY EXPANSION (Case Study 2: Air Passenger) 64 5.1 A brief history of air travel demand 64 5.2 Base model development of air passenger demand forecasting and passenger terminal capacity expansion 66 5.2.1 Airfare impact sub-model 68 5.2.2 Level of service impact sub-model 70 5.2.3 Population sub-model 70 5.2.4 GDP sub-model 71 5.2.5 Runway utilization sub-model 71 5.3 Main relationships of the model 72 5.4 Parameter estimation (case study 2) 72 5.5 Base model run results of case study 2 73 5.6 Model validation of air passenger demand 77 5.7 Scenario development of case study 2 80 5.7.1 Structure scenario 80 5.7.2 Parameter scenario 81 5.7.2.1 Optimistic scenario 81 5.7.2.2 Pessimistic scenario 82 5.7.3 Scenarios run results 83 5.8 Conclusion of case study 2 91 CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSION AND FURTHER RESEARCH 93 6.1 Conclusion 93 6.2 Further Research 95 REFERENCES 96 VITA 102

    AIAA, (1998). Guide for the verification and validation of computational fluid dynamics simulations, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, AIAA-G-077-1998, Reston, VA.
    Amstrong, J. S., (1978). Long-range forecasting: From crystal ball to computer. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
    Albin, S., (1997). Building a System Dynamics Model Part 1: Conceptualization, Education Project in MIT System Dynamics.
    Anylogic user’s manual, (2005). XJ Technologies Company Ltd.
    Bafail, A.O., Abed, S.Y., and Jasimuddin, S.M. (2000). The determinants of domestic air travel demand in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Journal of Air Transportation World Wide, Omaha 5 (2), 72-86.
    Barlas, Y., (1989a). Tests of Model Behavior That Can Detect Structural Flaws: Demonstration with Simulation Exp. International System Dynamics Conference, Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
    Barlas, Y., (1989b). Multiple tests for validation of system dynamics type of simulation models. European Journal of Operational Research, 42 (1), 59-87
    Barlas, Y., (1994). Model validation in system dynamics, International system dynamics conference, Stirling, Scotland.
    Barlas, Y., (1996). Formal aspects of model validity and validation in system dynamics. System Dynamics Review, 12 (3), 183-210. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Belobaba, P., (2001). Characteristics of Air Transportation Markets and Demand for Air Travel. Lecture notes from The Airline Industry course taught at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
    Blanchard, B. & Fabrycky, W., (1998). Systems Engineering and Analysis. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
    Brunetta L., Righi L. & Andreatta G., (2000). An operations research model for the evaluation of an airport terminal. European Union Research, DG VII R95 - B67161 - SIN000326.
    Booth, D. and Vertinsky, I., (1993). The strategic capacity-expansion model for a newsprint firm. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 40 (2), 162-174.
    Chakravarty, A.K., (2005). Global plant capacity and product allocation with pricing decisions. European Journal of Operational Research, 165 (1), 157–181.
    Chien, C. F., Chen, Y. J., and Peng, J.T., (2008). Demand forecast of semiconductor products based on technology diffusion. Proceedings of the 2008 Winter Simulation Conference.
    Coyle, R., (1996). System Dynamics Modeling: A Practical Approach. London: Chapman & Hall.
    Cyrillus, H., (2008). Indonesia’s promising economic outlook 2009.
    Das, A. and Kandpal, T.C., (1999). A model to estimate energy demand and CO2 emissions for the Indian cement industry, International Journal of Energy Research, 23 (7), 563-569.
    Department of Finance Canada, (2008). Air travel demand elasticity: concepts, issues and measurement.
    Fernandes E. and Pacheco R. R., (2002). Efficient use of airport capacity. Transportation Research Part A, 36 (3), 225-238.
    Ford, A., (1999). Modeling the Environment: an Introduction to System Dynamics Modeling of Environmental Systems. Washington, D.C.: Island Press.
    Forrester, J. W., (1998). Designing the Future. Speech given at the Universidad de Sevilla, December 15.
    Forrester, J. W., (1994). System dynamics, system thinking, and soft OR. System Dynamics Review, 10 (2), 245-255.
    Forrester, J. W., (1991). System Dynamics and the Lessons of 35 Years. A Chapter for K. De Greene (Ed.), The Systemic Basis of Policy Making in the 1990s.
    Forrester, J. W., (1989). Tests of Model Behavior That Can Detect Structural Flaws. International System Dynamics Conference, Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
    Forrester, J. W., and Senge P., (1980). Tests for Building Confidence in System Dynamics Models, Amsterdam: North-Holland.
    Forrester, J. W., (1971). Principles of Systems. New York: Wright-Allen Press, Inc.
    Forrester , J. W., (1961). Industrial Dynamics, The MIT Press, Cambridge.
    Gaimon, C. and Burgess, R.H., (2003). Analysis of the lead time and learning for capacity expansion. Production and Operations Management, 12 (1), 128–140.
    Garzia R.F., and Garzia M.R., (1990). Network modeling, simulation, and analysis, Marcel Dekker, New York,
    Giannanasi, F., Lovett, P., and Godwin, A. N., (2001). Enhancing confidence in discrete event simulations, Computers in Industry, 44 (2), 141-157.
    Haan J. and Yamamoto M., (1999). Zero inventory management: facts or fiction? Lessons from Japan, Journal of Production Economics, 59 (1), 65 -75.
    Hannon, B. M. and Matthias, R., (1994). Dynamic Modeling. New York: Springer Verlag.
    Hayes, R.H. and Wheelwright, S.C., (1984). Restoring our Competitive Edge - Competing Through Manufacturing, Wiley, New York.
    Homer, J., (1996). Why we iterate: scientific modeling in theory and practice. System Dynamics Review, 12(1), 1-19.
    Hsu, V.N., (2002). Dynamic capacity expansion problem with deferred expansion and age-dependent shortage cost. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 4 (1), 44–54.
    IATA, (1981). Guidelines for Airport Capacity / Demand Management. Geneva, Switzerland.
    ICAO: Impact of Civil Aviation on State’s Economies, (1998). World-wide CNS/ATM Systems Implementation Conference, Rio de Janeiro.
    Ingram F., (2004). Flights options. International directory of company histories, 75.
    Inzerilli F. & Sergio R., (1994). Uncertain demand, modal competition and optimal price-capacity adjustments in air transportation. Transportation, 21 (1), 91-101. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands.
    Jifeng, W., Huapu, L., and Hu, P., (2008). System dynamics model of urban transportation system and its application. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 8 (3), 83-89.
    Karlaftis, M. G., 2008. Demand forecasting in regional airports: dynamic Tobit models with garch errors. Sitraer 7, 100-111.
    Kessides C., (1996). A review of Infrastructure’s Impact on Economic Development, Infrastructure and the Complexity of Economic Development. Springer Verlag, Berlin.
    Larson, R. and Odoni A. R., (1981). Urban Operation Research, Prentice Hall, New Jersey.
    Lyneis, J., (1998). System Dynamics in Business Forecasting: A Case Study of the Commercial Jet Aircraft Industry.
    Lyneis, J., (1999). System Dynamics for Business Strategy: A Phased Approach. System Dynamics Review, 15(1): 37-70.
    Lyneis, J., (2000). System dynamics for market forecasting and structural analysis. System Dynamics Review, 16(1), 3-25.
    Maani, K. and Cavana, R., (2000). Systems Thinking and Modeling – Understanding Change and Complexity. New Zealand: Pearson Education.
    Mabry, J. C., (1995). Regulation, industry structure, and competitiveness in the U. S. Portland Cement Industry.
    Marris, R., (1964). The Economics of Capital Utilization: A Report on Multiple Shift Work. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
    Martis, M. S., (2006). Validation of simulation based models: a theoretical outlook, The Electronic Journal of Business Research Methods, 4 (1), 39-46.
    Mashayekhi, A. N., (1994) International System Dynamics Conference “A conventional Versus a System Dynamics Approach to Planning” pp. 130-138, Stirling, Scotland.
    Matsumoto, H., 2007. International air network structures and air traffic density of world cities. Transportation Research Part E, 43 (3), 269–282.
    Matthews, L., (1995). Forecasting peak passenger flows at airports. Transportation, 22 (1), 55-72. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands.
    Melo, M.T., Nickel, S. and da Gama, F.S., 2006. Dynamic multi-commodity capacitated facility location: a mathematical modeling framework for strategic supply chain planning. Computers & Operations Research, 33 (1), 181–208.
    Meta Systems Inc., (1975). System analysis in water resources planning, Water Information Centre Inc., Port Washington, New York.
    Miller, B. and Clarke, J. P., (2007). The hidden value of air transportation infrastructure. Technological Forecasting and Social Science, 74 (1), 18 – 35.
    Muetzelfeldt, R. and Massheder, J., (2003). The Simile visual modeling environment. European Journal of Agronomy, 18 (3), 345–358.
    Newell, G.F., (1971). Applications of Queuing Theory, Barnes and Noble, Boston, MA and Chapman and Hall, London, England.
    Orcun, S., Uzsoy, R., and Kempf, K., (2006). Using system dynamics simulations to compare capacity models for production planning, Proceedings of winter simulation conference.
    Palmatier, G. (1998). Forecast Measurement and Evaluation, A journey to business excellence.
    Ratnatunga, A. K. and Stewart, C. J., (1977). Dysmap User’s Manual. University of Bradford, UK: System Dynamics Research Group.
    Reibnitz, U.V., (1987). Szenarien – Optionen fϋr die Zukunft, McGraw-Hill, Hamburg.
    Richardson, G. P., (1995). Loop polarity, loop dominance and the concept of dominant polarity, System Dynamics Review, 11 (1), 67–88.
    Richmond, B., (1993) Systems thinking: critical thinking skills for the 1990s and beyond. System Dynamics Review, 9(2), 113-133.
    Ryan, S.M., (2004). Capacity expansion for random exponential demand growth with lead times. Management Science, 50 (6), 740–748.
    Sargent, R. G., (2003). Verification and validation of simulation models, Proceedings of the 2003 Winter Simulation Conference, 37-48.
    Senge, P., Kleiner, A., Roberts, C., Ross, R., and Smith, B., (1994). The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook: Strategies and Tools for Building a Learning Organization. New York: Doubleday.
    Senge, P., (1990). The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization. New York: Doubleday.
    Seraj Y. A., Abdullah O. B., and Sajjad M. J., (2001). An econometric analysis of international air travel demand in Saudi Arabia. Journal of Air Transport Management, 7 (3), 143-148.
    Skinner S., Dichter A., Langley P., and Sabert H., (1999). Managing growth and profitability across peaks and troughs of the airline industry cycle – an Industry Dynamics Approach.
    Sunarsip, (2007). National cement industry situation and anticipation, Investor Daily.
    System Dynamics Society, (2001). available at http://www.albany.edu/cpr/sds/.
    Sterman, J., (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, Irwin McGraw-Hill, New York.
    Sterman, J., (1994). Learning in and About Complex Systems. System Dynamics Review, 10(2), 291-330.
    Svrcek T., (1994). Planning level decision support for the selection of robust configurations of airport passenger buildings. Ph.D. Thesis, Dept. of Aeronautics & Astronautics, Flight Transportation Laboratory Report R94-6, MIT, Cambridge, USA.
    Swan W. M., (2002). Airline demand distributions: passenger revenue management and spill. Transportation Research Part E, 38 (3-4), 253–263.
    Taipei Times, (2008). Central bank lowers key interest rates.
    “The agroforestry modeling environment.” (1997). Agroforestry Modeling and Research Coordination, Annual Report 1996-97, ODA Forestry Research Programme, Project R5652., NERC/ITE Edinburgh, UK.
    The China Post, (2008). Ma noticeable lacking sound political reason.
    Transportation Research Board (TRB), (1987). Special Report 215: Measuring airport landside capacity. TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
    “Vensim: Ventana simulation environment.” Vensim User’s Guide, Ventana Systems Inc.
    Wexler, A. C., (2006). Demand fluctuations and plant turnover in the ready-mix concrete industry. Ph.D. dissertation at Northwestern University .
    World Bank, (2008). Indonesia’s Economic Growth May Slow to 4.4 % in 2009.
    Zoellick R., (2008). Global slump hits developing countries as credit squeeze impedes growth and trade; tensions in commodity markets ease available at http://web.worldbank.org.

    QR CODE