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研究生: 鄭竹均
Chu-Chun Cheng
論文名稱: 公司特質、意見分歧與反向利潤:臺灣股票市場的實證研究
Firm-specific attributes, dispersion of opinions, and contrarian profits: Evidence from the Taiwan stock market
指導教授: 劉代洋
Day-Yang Liu
黃彥聖
Yen-Sheng Huang
口試委員: 周賢榮
none
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 管理研究所
Graduate Institute of Management
論文出版年: 2011
畢業學年度: 99
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 100
中文關鍵詞: 過度反應假說反向策略
外文關鍵詞: overreaction hypothesis, contrarian strategy
相關次數: 點閱:200下載:2
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  • 本研究採用De Bondt and Thaler(1985)實證研究反向策略的方式,檢視反向策略績效及調查反向利潤(contrarian profits)是否與公司特質(firm-specific attributes)及意見分歧(dispersion of opinions)等特性有關。研究資料為1990-2008年期間臺灣證券交易所列舉的所有上市公司的股票資料。研究發現,採取買入前期(三年形成期)累積異常報酬(CAR)最差的輸家組合(losers)股票,且賣出前期(三年形成期)累積異常報酬(CAR)最好的贏家組合(winners)股票的反向策略,可以獲得約19.39%顯著平均累積異常報酬。
    此外公司特質及意見分歧可以用來加強反向策略績效。買入前期市價淨值比(M/B)最低層級25%中績效較差的輸家組合股票,且賣出前期市價淨值比(M/B)最高層級25%中績效較好的贏家組合股票的反向策略,可獲得41.18%顯著平均累積異常報酬。同樣的,買入前期報酬標準差最高層級25%中績效較差的輸家組合股票,且賣出其中績效較好的贏家組合股票的反向策略,可獲得41.57%顯著平均累積異常報酬。


    This paper follows the the contrarian profits of De Bondt and Thaler (1985)to examines the performance of contrarian strategies and investigates whether such contrarian profits are related to firm-specific attributes and dispersion of opinions. Using data from all listed stocks on the Taiwan Stock Exchange over the period 1990-2008, this paper finds a significant abnormal return of 19.39% earned by the contrarian strategy of buying prior losers and selling prior winners ranked by the cumulative abnormal returns over the three-year performance period.
    Moreover, both firm-specific attributes and dispersion of opinions can be utilized to enhance the performance of the contrarian strategy. The contrarian strategy of buying the losers in the bottom market-to-book quartile and selling the winners in the top market-to-book quartile earns a significant abnormal return of 41.18%. Similarly, the contrarian strategy of buying the losers and selling the winners in the top quartile ranked by standard deviation of returns earns a significant abnormal return of 41.57%.

    中文摘要 Ⅰ 英文摘要 Ⅱ 誌謝 Ⅲ 目錄 Ⅳ 圖表索引 Ⅵ 第壹章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的 6 第三節 論文架構與研究流程 6 研究流程圖 7 第貳章 文獻回顧 8 第一節 國外過度反應假說與反向策略相關研究 10 第二節 國內過度反應假說與反向策略相關研究 14 第三節 國外股票報酬與公司特質相關研究 18 第四節 國內股票報酬與公司特質相關研究 23 第五節 國外股票報酬與投資人意見分歧相關研究 32 第六節 國內股票報酬與投資人意見分歧相關研究 34 第參章 研究假說與研究方法 36 第一節 研究假說 36 第二節 研究設計 38 研究期間 38 選樣標準 38 資料來源 38 名詞界定與解釋 38 第三節 實證方法 39 子期間分割 39 單一排序法 39 雙重排序法 46 第肆章 實證結果與分析 49 第一節 單一排序法的反向利潤 49 第二節 雙重排序法的反向利潤 55 第伍章 結論與建議 71 第一節 結論 71 第二節 建議 73 參考文獻 74 國內文獻 74 國外文獻 78 作者簡介 96 圖 表 索 引 圖4.1 一年持有期10%CAR之走勢(一年形成期) 50 圖4.2 二年持有期10%CAR之走勢(二年形成期) 50 圖4.3 三年持有期10%CAR之走勢(三年形成期) 51 表1.1 集中交易市場成交金額投資人類別比例表 2 表1.2 臺灣股票市場成交值及成交量週轉率 2 表1.3 世界主要證券市場成交值週轉率 3 表4.1 不同形成期及持有期反向策略的累積異常報酬 52 表4.2 反向策略報酬:單一排序法 54 表4.3 雙重排序反向策略報酬:先以形成期的市價淨值比(M/B)排序,再以累積異常報酬(CAR)排序 57 表4.4 雙重排序反向策略報酬:先以形成期的本益比(P/E)排序,再以累積異常報酬(CAR)排序 60 表4.5 雙重排序反向策略報酬:先以形成期的公司規模(M)排序,再以累積異常報酬(CAR)排序 62 表4.6 雙重排序反向策略報酬:先以形成期的報酬標準差(σ(RET))排序,再以累積異常報酬(CAR)排序 65 表4.7 雙重排序反向策略報酬:先以形成期的異常報酬標準差(σ(AR))排序,再以累積異常報酬(CAR)排序 68 表4.8 雙重排序反向策略報酬:先以形成期的週轉率(TurnOver)排序,再以累積異常報酬(CAR)排序 70

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