可再生能源被認為是應對全球暖化及其後果的最重要能源之一。無論它們的潛力如何，在它們完全取代傳統的發電方式包括煤炭、天然氣和核電廠之前，它們都伴隨著一系列的挑戰。其中一個問題是，太陽能和風能都不是按需求提供的，而是取決於當下的天氣，但是為了確保電網穩定，需求和供應總是必須匹配，這就要求電網運營商提前知道可用的電量。這項研究提出了一個實用的解決方案，它可以利用電池儲能提前確定發電量，而且在當前的技術和市場機制方面也適用。研究表明，將多個太陽能發電系統視為一個單一的組成，可以提高預測的平均精度、誤差分佈並減少預測中的異常值。這反過來又導致了對誤差所需的補償需求減少。利用這種構成，此研究提出了一種基於模擬決定電池容量的方法。該方法考慮了緩衝區、轉換損失、循環壽命、最大放電深度和自放電。其結果是對所需電池容量的估計以完全補償任何預測錯誤，包括優化電池操作的電池管理政策。

Renewable Energy is regarded as one of the most important ways to combat global
warming and its consequences. No matter their potential they come with a series of
challenges that need to be addressed before they are ready to fully replace the traditional means of power production, which nowadays mainly consists of coal, gas and nuclear power plants. One of these issues is that both solar and wind energy are not available on demand but rather depend on the current weather. But to ensure grid stability demand and supply always must be matched, which requires the grid operator to known the available amount of power ahead of time. This research proposes a practical solution, which allows to reliably determine power production ahead of time utilizing battery storage and that is also applicable under current circumstances in regards to technology and market mechanisms. The research shows how considering multiple solar power systems as a single composition can improve a forecast’s average accuracy, error distribution and reduce the occurrence of outliers in the prediction. This in turn leads to a reduced need for capacity to compensate for made errors. Using the composition, a simulation-based approach on determining storage capacity is presented. The approach considers buffers, conversion losses, cycle life, maximum depth of discharge and self-discharge. The result is an estimate for required battery capacity to fully compensate any forecast errors made including a battery management policy for optimized battery operation.

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