本研究之目的為建立黏土層進行深開挖引致之連續壁位移的簡化方法。首先針對一基地位置座落於台北盆地的實際開挖案例，以PLAXIS 2D進行數值模擬分析，並與監測結果比較驗證，藉以確定二向度數值模擬分析時，土壤模式的適用性及土壤及結構參數的合理擇取原則。本研究針對開挖深度、開挖寬度、土壤正規化不排水剪力強度、壁體系統勁度及支撐軸向剛度等各項影響因素進行參數研究，假設案例共384組進行黏土層開挖數值模擬分析，統計假設案例的連續壁最大側向位移，選擇及測試合適且合理的回歸分析模型，並剔除不合理的假設案例資料點，最終假設案例留下358組，並利用SPSS進行指數型模型進行複回歸分析，建立於黏土層開挖時連續壁最大側位移量的簡易預測方法。本研究將此簡易預測方法應用於實際開挖案例，並與其他學者所提出之方法的預測結果進行比較及探討。

The purpose of this study is to establish a simplified methods for prediction of the maximum wall deflections caused by a excavation in clay. Initially, the soil model and parameters of soil and structural elements were calibrated with a well-documented deep excavation case, namely TNEC excavation, by using PLAXIS 2D. Then, 384 sets of hypothetical case, with variation of influence factors such as excavation depth, excavation width, normalization undrained shear strength, the system stiffness of the wall, and the axial stiffness of the lateral strut per unit length of the wall, were simulated in order to establish the relationship between the maximum wall lateral deflection and those factors. The multivariate regression analysis with exponential model was selected as a proper model for processing those data. Owing to some data were illogical from practical point of view, only data from 358 sets of hypothetical case were considered as valid data. The SPSS software was used as a tool for data processing. Finally, a simplified method was developed. The result was compared and discussed with the previous proposed methods.

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