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研究生: Billy Adhi Poetra
Billy Adhi Poetra
論文名稱: 使用優化混合深度學習進行風險偏好決策的預測施工成本-時間權衡
Predicted Construction Cost-Time Tradeoff Using Optimized Hybrid Deep Learning for Risk Preference Decision
指導教授: 鄭明淵
Min-Yuan Cheng
口試委員: 楊亦東
I-Tung Yang
王懷田
Huai-Tien Wang
吳育偉
Yu-Wei Wu
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工程學院 - 營建工程系
Department of Civil and Construction Engineering
論文出版年: 2023
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 81
外文關鍵詞: Earned Value Management, Optical Magnification Algorithm, NN-BiLSTM, Multiple Objective Optimization, Earned Value Management, Optical Magnification Algorithm, NN-BiLSTM, Multiple Objective Optimization
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The construction industry always strived for a successful project that is able to achieve its goals within the designated cost and time. Earned Value Management (EVM) is the common method to control project performance by forecasting the cost and time to completion (ECAC & ESAC). Previous studies have been conducted to calculate ECAC and ESAC using machine learning. However, due to the lack of optimization and the single-objective limitation, an improvement and development is needed. Using the optimizing model of Optical Microscope Algorithm (OMA) and applying bidirectional method, creates a new prediction model of OMA-NN-BiLSTM. Because of its conflicting nature and the interdependencies towards each other, cost and time are considered a tradeoff problem. A multi-objective algorithm, MOOMA, is developed to create a Pareto Curve that display the cost and time tradeoff values. Indifference Curve (IC) can be determine using triangular preference function to represents the decision-maker’s preference. The tradeoff result can be analyzed to calculate ECAC and ESAC based on the tangent point between Pareto Curve and Indifference Curve. Based on the selected project case period, the optimal tradeoff indicates that at the 4th period of the project, it is forecasted to be completed (ESAC) in 572 days with an estimated cost (ECAC) of approximately $2,332,958.70.

ABSTRACT i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii TABLE OF CONTENTS iii ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS vi LIST OF FIGURES xi LIST OF TABLES xiv Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Research Objective 3 1.3 Research Scope of Study 4 1.4 Research Methodology 5 1.5 Research Outline 8 Chapter 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 10 2.1 Related Research 10 2.2 Earned Value Method (EVM) 11 2.3 Neural Network (NN) 12 2.4 Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) 13 2.5 Optical Microscope Algorithm (OMA) 14 2.5.1 Naked Eye Phase 17 2.5.2 Objective Lens Magnification Phase 17 2.5.3 Eyepiece Magnification Phase 18 2.6 OMA-NN-BiLSTM 18 2.7 Multi-Objective Optical Microscope Algorithm (MOOMA) 19 2.7.1 Monte Carlo Simulation 19 2.7.2 Pareto Curve 20 2.8 Indifference Curve 21 Chapter 3 METHODOLOGY 25 3.1 OMA-NN-BiLSTM Model Architecture 25 3.2 Research Flowchart Overview 26 3.2.1 OMA-NN-BiLSTM Model Framework 28 3.2.2 MOOMA Model Framework 43 3.2.3 Tradeoff Analysis Flowchart 53 Chapter 4 MODEL IMPLEMENTATION AND EVALUATION 56 4.1 OMA-NN-BiLSTM Prediction Result 56 4.2 MOOMA Cost-Time Trade-off 67 4.3 Creating Indifference Curve (IC) 68 4.4 Identifying Tangent Point 71 4.5 Extreme Case 71 4.6 Tradeoff Analysis 72 4.7 Discussion 74 Chapter 5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 75 5.1 Conclusion 75 5.2 Recommendation 76 REFERENCES 77

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全文公開日期 2027/02/06 (校外網路)
全文公開日期 2027/02/06 (國家圖書館:臺灣博碩士論文系統)
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