在建築物生命週期裡，預測其可能遭遇的強風是一項很重要的工作。若要求得長回歸週期的設計風速，直接利用所量測的短年份風速資料進行統計分析並不夠準確。因此本研究先進行人造颱風的模擬，隨後根據人造颱風參數，利用高斯過程模型進行台北測站風速的預測。本研究的人造颱風模型與高斯過程模型都是根據觀測資料所建立的機率模型。本論文的人造颱風模型共分生成模型、侵台前傳遞模型、侵台時期氣壓傳遞模型以及侵台後氣壓傳遞模型。高斯過程模型主要依照颱風侵台路徑進行分類。根據人造颱風模型我們可以發現過去歷史上不同月份的颱風特性以及不同區域的變化情形；而根據高斯過程模型的超參數大小，我們可以了解到不同路徑的颱風參數對於台北測站風速的影響度。人造颱風模型與高斯過程模型的準確性經過驗證後，可預測台北測站未來長時間的風速，並且求出各風向的設計風速。

One of the most critical tasks in evaluating structural performance is determination of possible strong wind in the structural lifetime. However, the estimation of occurrence frequency and intensity for strong wind events is a challenging research topic, especially for typhoon or hurricane prone region. Direct statistical analyses of observed wind speeds are not accurate enough for predicting long-return-period design wind speeds or for assessing wind-induced risk; therefor, a typhoon simulation based wind hazard analysis is developed. The study first simulates artificial typhoons and then predicts Taipei wind speeds and directions based on simulated typhoon parameters

[1]中央氣象局 (CWB)網站 http://www.cwb.gov.tw/
[2]台灣防災颱風資料庫網頁系統 (TDB)網站 http://rdc28.cwb.gov.tw/
[3]洪維恩 ，「Matlab 7程式設計」，旗標出版股份有公司，2009
[4]徐偉誌，「應用高斯過程模型於風速之回歸分析與隨機數值模擬」，博士論文，國立台灣科技大學營建工程系，臺北，2008
[5]高士哲，「人造混合風速例時在極值風速上的應用」，碩士論文，國立台灣科技大學營建工程系，臺北，2004
[6]黃嘉美，呂國臣，「颱風強度預報作業化研究---JTWC及JMA之颱風強度比較及統計預報校驗」，中央氣象局，2007
[7]李承謙，「台北地區颱風危害度分析」，碩士論文，國立台灣科技大學營建工程系，臺北，2010
[8]Ang, A. H-S., and Tang, W.H.,“Probability Concepts in Engineering Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering”,John Wiley & sons,2nd Edition，2007
[9]Chen, Jun, Zhang and Xiaoqin,“An Empirical Joint Probability Density Function of Wind Speed and Direction”, The Seventh APCWE, 2009
[10]CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Group網站 http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/
[11]Mary, A. S., Brown, G. M., and Leftwich, P. W.,“A Tropical Cyclone Data Tape for the Eastern and Central North Pacific Basins, 1949-1983: Contents, Limitations, and Uses”, National Hurricane Center, 1984
[12]Emanuel, Kerry, 吳俊傑、金棣譯，「颱風」，天下文化，2007
[13]Graf, Mathias, Nishijima, Kazuyoshi, and Fabe, Michael Havbro, “A Probabilistic Typhoon Model for the Northwest Pacific Region”, The Seventh APCWE, 2009
[14]group for hight resolution sea surface Temperature (GHRSST)網站http://www.ghrsst.org/index.htm
[15]Hui, YU, Chunmei, HU, and Leyi, JIANG,“Comparison of Three Tropical Cyclone Intensity Datasets”, ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA, vol.21 pp.121-128, 2007
[16]Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)網站 http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html
[17]Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)網站 http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC
[18]Rwey-Hua Cherng,Wei-Chih Hsu,“Prediction of Taipei WindSpeeds Conditional on Typhoon Parameters”,Life-Cycle of Civil Engineering Systems, Taipei, Taiwan, 2010
[19]Lander, Mark A.,“A Comparison of Typhoon Best-Track Data in the Western North Pacific: Irreconcilable Difference, 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 2008
[20]Lee, Young-Kyu, Lee, Sungsu, and Kim, Hak-Sun, “Evaluation of Wind Hazard Over JEJU Island”, The Seventh APCWE, 2009
[21]Met Office Hadley Centre observations網站 http://hadobs.metoffice.com/index.html
[22]National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)網站http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/
[23]Nishijima, Kazuyoshi, Graf, Mathias, and Fabe, Michael Havbro, “Optimal Evacuation and Shut-down Decision in the Face of Emerging Natural Hazards”, ICOSSAR2009, 2009.
[24]Rasmussen, C. E., & Williams, C. K. I., “Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning”, the MIT Press, 2006, http://www.gaussianprocess.org/
[25]Song, Fang-Fang, and Ou, Jin-Ping,“Wind Hazard Damage Estimation of Industrial Buildings”, The Seventh APCWE, 2009
[26]Vickery, P. J., Skerlj, P. F., and Twisdale, L. A.,“Simulation of Hurricane Risk in the U.S. Using Empirical Track Model”, Journal of Structural Engineering, pp. 1222-1237, 2000a
[27]Vickery, P. J., Skerlj, P. F., Steckley, A. C., and Twisdale, L. A., “Hurricane Wind Field Model for Use in Hurricane Simulations”, Journal of Structural Engineering, pp.1203-1221, 2000b
[28]Vickery, P. J., Lin, Jason, Skerlj, Peter F., Twisdale Jr., Lawrence A., and Huang, Kevin,“HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model Methodology. I: Hurricane Hazard, Terrain, and Wind Load Modeling”, Natural Hazards Review, ASCE, pp.82-93, 2006a
[29]Vickery, P. J., Skerlj, Peter F., Lin, Jason, Twisdale Jr., Lawrence A., Young, Michael A., and Lavelle, Francis M., “HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model Methodology. II: Damage and Loss Estimation”, Natural Hazards Review, ASCE, pp.94-103, 2006b
[30]Webster, P. J, Holland, G. J., Curry, J. A., and Chang, H.-R., “Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment”, Vol.309 Science, pp1844-1846, 2005
[31]Xiao, Y.F., & Duan, Z.D.,“Typhoon hazard analysis in southeast China coastal region with the CE wind field model”, ICOSSAR, 2010
[32]Xiao, Y.Q., Li, L.X., and Song, L.L.,“Study on Typhoon Wind Characteristics Based on Field Measurements”, The Seventh APCWE, 2009
[33]Xiao, Yu-Feng, Xiao, Yi-Qing, and Duan, Zhong-Dong,“The Typhoon Wind Hazard Analysis in Hong Kong of China with the New Formula for Holland B Parameter and the CEWind Field Model”, The Seventh APCWE, 2009
[34]Yin, Jianming, Welch, Michael B., Yashiro, Harumi, and Shinohara, Mizuki, “Basin Wide Typhoon Risk Modeling and Simulation for Western North Pacific Basin”, The Seventh APCWE, 2009