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研究生: 黃兪婷
Yu-Ting Huang
論文名稱: 需求資訊對報童問題決策偏誤之影響
Impact of Demand Information on Decision Bias in the Newsvendor Problem
指導教授: 林希偉
Shi-Woei Lin
口試委員: 曹譽鐘
Yu-Chung Tsao
陳威志
Wei-Chih Chen
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業管理系
Department of Industrial Management
論文出版年: 2020
畢業學年度: 108
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 86
中文關鍵詞: 行為決策理論決策偏誤受限需求報童問題單期季節性商品
外文關鍵詞: Behavioral operations, Decision bias, Censored information, Newsvendor problem, Single-Period Problem
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報童問題探討季節性商品或易腐性商品在需求不確定下的單期最佳訂購量,為存貨與供應鏈管理之重要模型。雖現有研究已推導出可極大化利潤的訂購量,然而實證研究發現決策者具有系統性偏誤,其訂購量往往介於平均需求與最佳訂購量,進而導致不良的存貨管理決策。縱然學者已針對報童問題之決策偏誤進行廣泛研究,但多數研究假設決策者具有完整的需求資訊,此條件未必符合真實管理情境。因此本研究旨在透過實驗探討需求資訊對於報童問題決策之影響,研究中依決策者在進行決策時所取得之資訊以及市場需求資訊是否為受限資料(censored data)分別設計兩個實驗,並探討風險態度的調節作用。研究結果指出決策者在決策過程中要求的資訊明顯影響其訂購決策,而市場需求資訊受限與否在高利潤情況中亦顯著影響訂購量,且當需求資訊受限時,趨至均值效應(pull-to-center effect)在高利潤決策情境中益發顯著,而低利潤決策情境中則相對減緩。此外,可能因錨定於前期需求之作用,研究結果指出風險態度無明顯調節效應。相較於過去研究多採用完整的需求資訊,本研究考量決策資訊之可得性以及受限需求資訊等,更符合實際管理情境,其結果可供企業管理者之重要決策參考。


The newsvendor problem, an inventory decision problem under uncertain demand for a perishable product, is a fundamental model in inventory and supply chain management. Extensive studies regarding optimal order quantities that maximize expected profits have been conducted. However, a growing number of studies pointed out that inventory or order quantities made by the decision makers systematically deviated from those that maximize expected profits, and a pull-to-center (PtC) effect has been observed (i.e., the order quantity tends to fall between mean demand and the normative order quantity). This systematic bias leads to non-optimal or suboptimal inventory decisions. Although scholars in this field have conducted extensive research on the decision bias in the newsvendor problem, most studies assumed that decision makers have comprehensive demand information, which does not accurately reflect real-world decision making. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to explore the impact of demand information on newsvendor decision making behavior. We conducted two experiments, one focuses on the availability of information and one focuses on censored demand, to investigate decision biases. We also considered risk attitude as a possible covariate. Results of this study show that the availability of information significantly affect the order quantity. Whether market demand is censored or not also has a significant effect in high profit condition. In particular, when the demand information is censored, the PtC effect becomes even more significant in high-profit condition, and becomes less significant in low-profit condition. However, no obvious moderating effect of risk attitude is observed. Comparing with the previous experimental research where participates usually are given comprehensive demand information, results of this study can better help the practitioners in the field to improve their decision making.

摘要 i ABSTRACT ii 誌謝 iii 目錄 iv 圖目錄 vii 表目錄 viii 符號說明 ix 第一章、 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 4 1.3 論文架構 4 第二章、 文獻回顧 6 2.1 報童問題之經典模型 6 2.2 報童問題之相關實證研究 7 2.3 報童決策偏誤之行為理論與原因 11 2.4 需求資訊對於決策偏誤之影響 15 2.4.1 需求相關資訊 16 2.4.2 受限需求資訊 17 2.5 研究定位 19 第三章、 研究方法 20 3.1 研究設計 20 3.1.1 實驗設計 20 3.1.2 實證研究受試者 22 3.1.3 實驗計畫與細節 22 3.1.4 研究工具 26 3.2 研究假設 28 3.2.1 需求相關資訊之可得性 28 3.2.2 受試者之訂購量決策 29 3.2.3 受限與非受限需求資訊 29 3.3 研究流程 30 3.3.1 第一個假設之檢定流程 34 3.3.2 第二個假設之檢定流程 35 3.3.3 第三個假設之檢定流程 36 第四章、 研究結果與分析 38 4.1 實驗1:紙筆實驗(需求相關資訊) 38 4.1.1 高利潤情況 38 4.1.2 低利潤情況 42 4.1.3 風險態度之影響 47 4.1.4 紙筆實驗之小結 48 4.2 實驗2:程式實驗(受限需求資訊) 49 4.2.1 高利潤情況 49 4.2.2 低利潤情況 55 4.2.3 高與低利潤情況 59 4.2.4 風險態度之影響 62 4.2.5 程式實驗之小結 63 第五章、 結論與建議 64 5.1 結論 64 5.2 管理意涵 65 5.3 研究限制與未來建議 65 參考文獻 67 附錄一、 紙本實驗之任務背景 72 附錄二、 前測問題 73 附錄三、 額外測驗(風險量測) 74

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