自人口與技術迅速成長開始，建築物質材料大量流入城市地區，大多數城市地區對這些主要是不可再生材料的消耗量大幅增加。且城市的擴張同時對環境會造成許多影響，從提取、轉化、運輸，在經過長時間的儲存在社會中，最終達到使用壽命終點。但存量的數量、組成等，決定了未來廢棄物流向與回收潛力，更深入的了解使用中的材料存量及其動態對於可持續發展至關重要。
本研究欲針對臺北市建築物質存量及其未來進行分析與預測，首要透過66個建築個案分析，分析臺灣四大建築類別(住宅類、工業類、文教類、商辦類)，以及住宅類別中鋼筋混凝土構造(RC)和鋼骨鋼筋混凝土構造(SRC)之建築物質強度並了解其差異。後以四大建築類別之物質強度為基礎，結合其他公開資料，進行臺北市建築物質存量的分析。首先，使用實際新建與拆除面積可得知歷年建築物質存量變化，結合人口、社會經濟指標與相關文獻，推估未來存量流入與流出以及建築物質存量，另為符合實際情況及不確定性，採情境分析以瞭解因不同發展情境之下，對存量變化造成之影響。
藉由歷年存量計算結果比較後，得知臺北市各區現有建築物質存量多有增加，亦指年度平均物質流入量高於流出量。另以文獻之建築壽命分布為基礎推估年度拆除量與建築存量變化。其預測結果顯示老舊建築持續進行拆除但年度流出量呈現緩和現象，且受到臺北市整體人口未來成長趨緩而有下滑趨勢，如在2041年因需求驅動與拆除活動的減少，建築物質存量的流動較過往趨緩。研究結果如臺北市各區的建築存量差異與變化，可供政府和相關決策者制定城市發展策略、推動環保措施以及促進建築可持續發展。

Rapid growth of population and urbanization accelerate the construction of urban buildings and infrastructure to support the basic socioeconomic activities in cities. Tones and tones of construction materials have been used and stored in urban areas until the end of the service life. These construction materials are identified as parts of the urban material stocks. The quantity and composition of the urban material stock determine the future waste flow and recycling potential. A comprehensive understanding of in-use construction material stocks and flows is crucial for urban sustainable development.
This study aims to analyze and predict the building material stocks and flows of Taipei City from 1980 to 2041. First, 66 real case studies are used to estimate the building material intensity among Taiwan's four major building types (residential, industrial, educational, and commercial), as well as for reinforced concrete (RC) and steel-reinforced concrete (SRC) of typical residential buildings. Combined with actual newly constructed and demolished area statistics, the historical flows and variations of building material stock are identified. With demographic and socio-economic indicators, the inflow and outflow of building material stocks in the future are estimated, in order to predict the building material stocks for 12 districts within Taipei City until 2041. Scenario analysis is adopted to understand the impacts of different developments on stock variations to accommodate real-world situations and uncertainties.
The results reveal that the building material stocks in 12 districts of Taipei City have generally increased from 1980 to 2020, indicating the annual average inflow of building materials is higher than the annual outflow. Moreover, based on the distribution and length of building lifespan from previous studies, the annual demolition quantity and changes in building stock are estimated. Influenced by the declining trend in Taipei City's population growth from 2021 to 2040, the annual growth of building material inflow is expected to slow down by 2041 due to the slowdown of demand-driven activities and the demolition of existing buildings.
Based on these estimated results, scenario analysis is conducted to compare the difference in building stock volume under different scenarios in the future. The comparison and the predicted outcome provide valuable insights for the government and decision-makers in formulating urban development strategies, promoting environmental measures, and facilitating sustainable building development. These findings also serve as a reference for future research.

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