中國和美國的貿易談判歷經將近二年時間，雙方於 2020 年 1 月 15
日簽屬第一階段貿易協定，美中貿易戰影響層面，不僅是二國互徵關稅
可能帶來的經濟蕭條，也為全球貿易帶來嚴重的衝擊。中國長期以來在
國際貿易與市場，以強迫技術轉移來換取獲得進入中國市場的資格、竊
取外國企業知識財產權與商業機密及國家操作貨幣市場等行為，讓中國
對全球的改革承諾變成了空洞而這不僅是貿易協定，實質上可能影響到
中國共產黨管理階層的控制力與執政穩定性。本研究藉由彙整美中貿易
經貿談判歷程至第一階段貿易協定簽訂的相關文獻，深入觀察中國與美
國之間多回合的貿易談判策略，分析中美雙方如何在磋商後，不斷修正
原始信念以應對下一次交手，達到雙方談判收益的最大化。以賽局工具
分析中國與美國雙方進行貿易談判的戰略目標下，雙方的經濟目的與動
機，透過賽局理論模型探討雙方貿易談判的過程，以及在不同情境下預
測的可能收益，進而推判出美中雙方的最適策略。

After two years of confrontation, the United Stage and China signed the firststage trade agreement in January 2020. The United Stage and China tariff war not
only create economically effects on both business and individual living cost in two
countries, and also bring globally impact with that act. For a long time, in the
international trading business and marketing, china force foreign countries
corporations to do the technology transfer as the get in ticket to china market. Stealing
foreign countries intellectual property and business trade secret, manipulating
currency market made china’s promise to global reformation worthless. In fact, this is
not only a trade agreement, the intensifying trade war between China and the United
States is causing a massive rift within Communist Party of China. The essence of this
study is to deeply observe the multi-round trade negotiations between China and the
United States through the relevant literature from the process of consolidating the USChina trade and economic negotiations to the first-stage trade consensus
breakthrough. This study uses the game theory and non-competitive game strategy to
analyze the strategic goals of the trade negotiations, the economic goals and motives
of the two parties. Through the game theory model to discuss the process of the two
parties' easy negotiations, and the possible benefits predicted in different situations,
and then conclude The best strategy for both the US and China.

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