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研究生: 鄧人豪
Ren-Hao Deng
論文名稱: 實獲值應用在專案管理人力推論與規劃之研究-以建築工程為例
Earned Value Management based Engineer Resource Allocation Using Inference Model for Construction Project
指導教授: 鄭明淵
Min-Yuan Cheng
口試委員: 曾惠斌
Hui-Ping Tserng
曾仁杰
Ren-Jye Dzeng
洪嫦闈
Cathy C.W. Hung
鄭明淵
Min-Yuan Cheng
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工程學院 - 營建工程系
Department of Civil and Construction Engineering
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 68
中文關鍵詞: 人工智慧管理人力EVMSOS-LSSVMAI HRM
外文關鍵詞: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Inference Model, SOS-LSSVM, Allocation of Engineer Resource,, AI HRM
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  • 目前營建工程 管理人力的配置多是依據人均產能、公司政策、經驗主觀判斷以及專案預算來預估所需管理人力。 但營建工程 隨 著專案的進行管理人力 的需求亦隨之變動 。 目前 傳統 預估管理人力配置的方式,無法適時合理地反映工程現場需要的管理人力數量 。 造成專案管理人力規劃過剩或不足的問題。 本研究導入 實獲值管理 (Earned Value Management, EVM)的績效與指標 有效反映工程項目與工程動員數之多寡,因此能在工程專案進行期間,能適時合理地反映因施工動態與 現場 作業人機料數量變動的管理人力需求。本研究藉由實務案例蒐集彙整分析23件 建築工程 案例中逐月紀錄共867筆歷史資料 篩選過往文獻中的管理人力因子轉換為 實獲值管理的參數與指標 並結合 人工智慧模式 建構營建專案管理人力推論模式, 其結果符合 高準確度預測, 適時客觀地反映管理人力需求,解決傳統依人均產能、公司政策、經驗主觀判斷及專案預算來規劃管理人力造成管理人力配置不適當的問題 ,可作為模式引用者參考。


    The allocation of construction engineer resource is often based on per capita capacity, company policy, subjective judgement and project budgets.However, as a project progresses, construction engineer resource requirements change.The current traditional way of estimating allocation of construction engineer resource does not reflect the allocation of construction engineer resource required on site in a timely and reasonable manner.This has led to the problem of over or under planning of project construction engineer resource.This study introduces EVM performance and metrics to effectively reflect the number of project and project workforce.This will enable the project to reflect the changes in construction dynamics and the number of personnel and materials on site in a timely and reasonable manner during the project.
    A total of 867 monthly historical records from 23 construction projects were collected and analysed through practical case studies.The allocation of construction engineer resource factors from the past literature were selected and converted into EVM variables and indicators.The model was combined with an artificial intelligence model to develop a construction engineer resource inference model for construction project management.The model results are consistent with highly accurate predictions.The results are highly accurate and reflect the management workforce requirements in a timely and objective manner.The problem of inappropriate management workforce allocation based on per capita capacity, company policy, subjective experience and project budgets has been resolved.The results of this study can be used as a reference for model users.

    第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究動機 1 1.2 研究目的 4 1.3 研究範圍與限制 5 1.4 研究方法與流程 6 1.5 論文架構 9 第二章 文獻回顧 10 2.1 人力資源規劃 10 2.2 專案管理人力因素及配置方法探討 11 2.2.1 專案管理人力因素探討 11 2.2.2 專案管理人力配置方法探討 18 2.3 人工智慧 模式 20 2.3.1 人工神經網路 (Artificial Neural Networks , ANNs) 20 2.3.2 支持向量機 (Support Vector Machine, 21 2.3.3 支持向量迴歸 (Support Vector Regression , SVR) 23 2.3.4 邏輯迴歸 (Logistic Regression , LR) 25 2.3.5 分類與回歸樹 (Classification and Regression Tree , CART) 2.3.6 最小平方差支持向量機 (Least Squares Support Vector Machine, LSSVM) 28 2.3.7 演化式支持向量機推論模式 (Evolutionary Support Vector Ma chine Inference Model, ESIM) 31 2.3.8 演化式最小平方差支持向量機 (Evolutionary Least Squares Support Vector Machine Inference Model, ELSIM) 32 第三章 推論模式 33 3.1 確立推論模式 33 3.2 確認管理人力影響因子 34 3.3 管理人力因子預處理 42 3.4 案例分割 44 3.5 生物共生演算法最小平方差支持向量機 (SOS LSSVM)應用 45 3.5.1 生物共生演算法最小平方差支持向量機架構流程 46 3.5.2 生物共生演算法最小平方差支持向量機特性與使用限制 48 3.6 模式預測結果 50 3.7 推論模式對比 52 第四章 案例分析與推論模式驗證案例分析與推論模式驗證 53 4.1 蒐集管理人力歷史案例蒐集管理人力歷史案例 53 4.2 管理人力因子預處理管理人力因子預處理 55 4.3 建立案例資料庫建立案例資料庫 58 4.4 預測結果預測結果 60 4.5 推論模式比對結果推論模式比對結果 61 4.6 動態管理人力規劃結果動態管理人力規劃結果 62 第五章 結論與建議結論與建議 64 5.1 結論 64 5.2 建議 65 參考文獻 66

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