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研究生: 許哲睿
Che-Jui Hsu
論文名稱: 董事會特性與分析師盈餘預測
Board's Characteristics and Analysts' Earnings Forecast
指導教授: 張琬喻
Woan-Yuh Jang
口試委員: 黃振豊
Cheng-Li Huang
曾盛恕
Seng-Su Tsang
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2020
畢業學年度: 108
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 45
中文關鍵詞: 董事會特性分析師盈餘預測
外文關鍵詞: board characteristics, analysts' earnings forecast
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  • 由於公司資訊揭露程度會受到董事會特性影響,本研究欲探討董事會特性和分析師盈餘預測的關係。對於董事會特性本研究選定三個方面作為研究的變數,分別為董事性別多元性、席次盈餘偏離程度和家族企業,探討其與分析師盈餘預測準確性與離散性的影響。以台灣上市上櫃普通股公司為研究樣本,資料來源從台灣經濟新報資料庫取得。研究期間為西元2002年至2018年,涵蓋643間上市上櫃公司,樣本共2327筆年資料。
    本研究的實證結果發現,在樣本後期發現當公司具董事性別多元性,可改善分析師預測準確性;席次盈餘偏離程度愈大會降低分析師盈餘預測準確性和擴大其離散性。而本研究又將樣本分為家族企業和非家族企業作比較,發現在家族企業樣本後期,董事性別多元性對分析師預測準確性有正向顯著關係,且席次盈餘偏離差對分析師預測離散性亦呈現正向顯著;然而,在非家族企業樣本中,本研究所探討的董事會特性對分析師盈餘預測,皆呈現不顯著,即對非家族企業而言,影響分析師盈餘預測可能不來自董事會特性。綜合以上結論,董事會特性會影響分析師盈餘預測的準確性和離散性。本研究主要的貢獻在於投資人面對券商報告時,董事會特性可為選取股票之參考依據。


    Since the firm’s information disclosure will be affected by the board’s characteristics, this study intends to investigate the association between the board's characteristics and the properties of analysts' earnings forecast. For the board's characteristics, this study selected three aspects as the independent variables, which are the board gender diversity, the deviation of board seat control and cash flow rights, and family business. To explore the impact of analysts' earnings forecast accuracy and dispersion by the board's characteristics. Companies listed in Taiwan Stock Exchange and Taiwan OTC Exchange are the study samples while related data is from Taiwan Economic Journal. The research period is from 2002 to 2018 with 643 listed companies being included in the sample and the sample is 2327 firm-year observations.
    The empirical evidence of this study finds out that it could improve the analysts' earnings forecasts accuracy when the firm has gender-diverse boards in later sample;the higher the deviation of board seat control and cash flow rights, the lower(higher) the accuracy(dispersion) analysts' earnings forecast. In this study, the sample was divided into the family business and non-family business for comparison. The results of this study show that board gender diversity has a significant positive association with the analysts' earnings forecasts accuracy, and the deviation of board seat control and cash flow rights has a significant positive association with the analysts' earnings forecasts dispersion with a later sample of the family business. However, the variables of the board's characteristics are insignificant with the accuracy and dispersion of analysts' earnings forecast with non-family firm samples, which means that the influence on analysts’ earnings forecast may not arise from the board’s characteristics with non-family firm samples. In conclusion, the board's characteristics would affect the accuracy and dispersion of analysts' earnings forecast. The main contribution of this study is that investors can be based on the board's characteristics as a reference to select the stocks reported by broker research reports.

    摘 要 I ABSTRACT II 誌 謝 III 目 錄 IV 圖目錄 VI 表目錄 VII 第壹章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與背景 1 第二節 研究目的與貢獻 1 第三節 研究架構 3 第貳章 文獻探討 4 第一節 董事性別多元性與分析師盈餘預測 4 第二節 席次盈餘偏離程度對分析師盈餘預測的影響 6 第三節 家族企業和分析師盈餘預測 7 第參章 研究方法 9 第一節 樣本選擇 9 第二節 變數定義 10 第三節 研究模型 14 第肆章 實證結果 17 第一節 敘述性統計 17 第二節 模型分析 23 第伍章 結論與建議 33 第一節 研究結論 33 第二節 研究限制與建議 34 參考文獻 35 (一) 中文部分 35 (二) 英文部分 35

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    無法下載圖示 全文公開日期 2025/07/17 (校內網路)
    全文公開日期 2025/07/17 (校外網路)
    全文公開日期 2025/07/17 (國家圖書館:臺灣博碩士論文系統)
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