半導體積體電路製程技術的進步，造就了近五十年電腦產業的蓬勃發展；通訊技術與電腦科技的結合，創造了由電腦所組成網際網路的榮景。發展多年的人工智慧、雲端與邊緣運算技術，也在物聯網找到可以發揮的舞台。這些現代的科技革新，半導體積體電路都扮演著非常關鍵性的角色。
本研究由半導體通路商的技術研發部門出發，利用波士頓矩陣，定位個案公司主要網路通訊產品線之未來推廣策略，再透過對國際政治、經濟、社會與技術趨勢的掃描，與高德納公司的技術成熟度曲線（Gartner’s Hype Cycle）的預測，聚焦出3年之內即將在智慧物聯網引爆的可能商機。透過技術策略藍圖的快速導入法，歸納出市場與產業面所需求的產品特徵，進一步剖析產品結構，收斂出個案公司2～3年之內必須具備的關鍵技術，進行未來3年的技術佈局的規劃。本研究並將整個研究步驟與架構，彙整成一套可資依循的策略分析模型。藉由模型的每年檢視，與產業趨勢的再同步，為個案公司技術研發部門，進行年度的願景規劃與目標設定。冀能在詭譎多變的世界局勢中，刻劃出適合個案公司技術發展的軌跡，維持個案公司技術競爭力，跳脫通路商經營困境，再創事業榮景！

The advancement of semiconductor integrated circuit process technology has created the vigorous development of the computer industry in the past fifty years; the combination of network communication semiconductors and computer technology have created a glorious view of the Internet composed of computers. Artificial intelligence, cloud and edge computing technologies that have been developed for many years have also found a stage to play in the Internet of Things. These modern technological innovations, semiconductor integrated circuits have played a very critical role.
This research starts from the Technical Research and Development department of a semiconductor distributors and uses Boston matrix analysis to locate the major network communication product lines of the case-study company and set the future promotion strategy. Then, by scanning the international political, economic, social, technological trends and Gartner ’s Hype Cycle prediction for the emerging technologies, it figured out the possible business opportunities that will soon be detonated in the intelligent Internet of Things within 3 years. Then, through the rapid introduction of the technical strategy plan method (TPLAN), the product characteristics required by the market and industry are summarized, the product structure is also analyzed, the key technologies that worth the case company to invest within 2 to 3 years are selected, and the technical layout planning for the next 3 years is carried out . This study summarizes the entire research and analyzed steps and structure into a set of strategy models that can be followed. Through the annual review of the model and resynchronization with industry trends, the Technical Research and Development department performs annual vision planning and goal setting for the case company. In a treacherous and ever-changing world situation, create a trajectory suitable for the case company's technological development, maintain the case company's technological competitiveness, get rid of the distributor's business difficulties, and create a career prosperity!

[1] 國立交通大學奈米中心. "世界與我國半導體演進史." http://www.nfc.nctu.edu.tw/history/history1.htm.
[2] Gordon E. Moore, "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits," Electronics, vol. 38, April 19 1965.
[3] Rabia Shakeel Sabeen Rashid, Huma Bashir, Khadija Malik, Kainat Wajib, "Moore’s Law Effect on Transistors Evolution," vol. 5, no. 7, pp. 495-499, 2016.
[4] ISTI, "2019年台灣產業地圖," Industry Science and Technology International Strategy Center, 2019.
[5] CTIMES, "News : IC Insights: Semi Content in Electronic Systems Forecast to Drop to 26.4% in 2019," 2019. [Online]. Available: https://en.ctimes.com.tw/DispNews.asp?O=HK37ICDZ2FISAA00NM.
[6] David Silver, Aja Huang, Chris J Maddison, Arthur Guez, Laurent Sifre, George Van Den Driessche, Julian Schrittwieser, Ioannis Antonoglou, Veda Panneershelvam, and Marc Lanctot, "Mastering the game of Go with deep neural networks and tree search," nature, vol. 529, no. 7587, p. 484, 2016.
[7] 李開復，王詠剛, "人工智慧來了," Book p. 47, 2017.
[8] "Semiconductor Acquisitions Regain Momentum in 2019," IC Insights RESEARCH BULLETIN, Sep 18 2019. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/RUVLQ.
[9] "Top-15 Semiconductor Suppliers’Sales Fall by 18% in 1H19," IC Insights, 2019. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/RUK2R.
[10] 芯智訊, "接連取消安富利/文曄/世平代理權，TI到底打的什麼算盤？," KKnews 每日頭條, Oct.8 2019. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/PFPNM.
[11] 吳家豪, "大聯大：延長收購文曄至明年元月底 無須事前申報," 中央通訊社, Dec. 4 2019. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/RWJZ3.
[12] 莊國基, "新產品創新過程中，半導體通路商支援活動之研究－台灣筆記型電腦製造商為例," 碩士, 國際創業與經營管理學程碩士在職專班, 輔仁大學, 新北市, 2008. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11296/x33de7
[13] 藍清廉, "台灣半導體通路商技術支援服務之4C交換成本分析," 碩士, 經營管理碩士學程, 國立政治大學, 台北市, 2006. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11296/wt4txq
[14] WSTS, "Semiconductor Market Forecast Fall," Nov 19~21 2019. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/QR89G.
[15] "Semiconductor Unit Shipments Exceeded 1 Trillion Devices in 2018," IC Insights, 2019. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/SJAY2.
[16] Ray Kurzweil, "Microprocessor Cost per Transisitor Cycle," The Sigularity Is Near:$/Transistor/Hz, Logarithmic Plot p. 62, 2019. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/NFRC9.
[17] Gordon E. Moore, "Average transistor price," Intel and Dataquest reports - Our Revolution, December 2002. [Online]. Available: http://tinyurl.com/y9ey53u2.
[18] E. R. Dulberger E. R. Berndt, and N. J. Rappaport, "Clock Speed," Price and Quality of Desktop and Mobile Personal Computers: A Quarter Century of History, July 17 2000. [Online]. Available: http://www.nber.org/~confer/2000/si2000/berndt.pdf.
[19] 電子與系統組研究群，工研院產業科技國際策略發展所, "智慧新世界 2019產業關鍵解密," July 2019.
[20] Wikipedia, "Gartner," 2019. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/S9ABY.
[21] A.Linden and J. Fenn, "Understading Gartner’s Hype Cycles," Strategic Analysis Report, vol. R-20-1971, 30 May 2003.
[22] Kurt Shuler, "The Gartner Hype Cycle & Technology Adoption Lifecycle Explained (using NoC Technology)," 10 Sep 2012. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/N84XB.
[23] Wikipedia, "Boston Consulting Group," 2019. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/S7KHV.
[24] NetMBA, "The BCG Growth-Share Matrix," 2019. [Online]. Available: http://www.netmba.com/strategy/matrix/bcg/.
[25] 陳榮芳, "電腦的發展歷史 " 2020. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/SASSE.
[26] 國立師範大學, "Internet 的發展史," 2020. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/RG7V5.
[27] FCC, "2015 Broadband Progress Report," Federal Communications Commission, Feb.4 2015. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/RTXK3.
[28] Wikipedia, "Heinrich Hertz," 2019. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/QRGW3.
[29] Wikipedia, "Bluetooth," 2019. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/SCJ37.
[30] Wikipedia, "Zigbee," 2019. [Online]. Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zigbee.
[31] Wikipedia, "Ethernet," 2020. [Online]. Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Ethernet&oldid=942401945.
[32] Wikipedia, "Wi-Fi," 2020. [Online]. Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Wi-Fi&oldid=941777022.
[33] WiFi Alliance, "Generational Wi-Fi® User Guide," Oct. 2018.
[34] Wikipedia, "Digital subscriber line," 2020. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/RQBLJ.
[35] Wikipedia, "DOCSIS," 2020. [Online]. Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=DOCSIS&oldid=942413058.
[36] Wikipedia, "Passive Optical Network," 2020. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/RT2AU.
[37] 蘇俊吉, "行動通信的演進歷程," 財團法人電信技術中心檢測認證實驗室, Sep. 2015.
[38] Mohammad Meraj ud in Mir and Dr. Sumit Kumar, "Evolution of Mobile Wireless Technology from 0G to 5G," International Journal of Computer Science and Information Technologies, vol. Vol. 6 (3) , 2015, 2545-2551, 2015.
[39] 3GPP, "The Mobile Broadband Standard," 2020.
[40] Wikipedia, "LPWAN," 2019. [Online]. Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LPWAN.
[41] 科學月刊, "機器是如何學習與進步？人工智慧的核心技術與未來," 26 Feb 2019. [Online]. Available: http://scimonth.blogspot.com/2018/03/blog-post_56.html.
[42] 路向陽, "何謂邊緣運算," MakerPro, 5 Dec. 2018. [Online]. Available: https://makerpro.cc/2018/12/what-is-edge-computing/.
[43] 華南永昌, "超有「存在感」邊緣運算," 25 May 2018. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/RAKMM.
[44] Wendy, "重新認識「Iot」，物聯網的由來以及對未來的影響," 13 Mar. 2016. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/RPKY8.
[45] "Correcting the IoT History," Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/SL4NL.
[46] 彭楷翔, "物聯網的概念在 1960 年代就有了! 從 IIoT 到 AIoT，帶你了了解物聯網的發展歷史," 科技報橘 TechOrange, 03, Feb. 2020. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/S4UD9.
[47] ITU, "Ubiquitous Network Socities: Their Impact on the Telecommunication Industry " 6-8 April 2005.
[48] 吳柏寬 and 蘇怡文, "全球化、反全球化與川普保護主義," 中華經濟研究院, Mar. 2017.
[49] "全球超過50家主要企業考慮將⽣產基地移出中國大陸," 經濟部 / 台北駐⽇日經濟文化代表處經濟組, 8 Aug. 2019. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/RRVBB.
[50] 馬紹章, "看懂美中台三角關係：兩岸問題難解決，美國成為最大主因," 天下文化, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/S49TN.
[51] 許茵爾, "全球區域經濟整合發展趨勢," 中華經濟研究院區域發展研究中⼼, 31 Oct. 2019.
[52] 郭⼦菱, "貿易易戰持續延燒 加速短鏈革命," 工研院產業科技國際策略發展所, 19 Jan. 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.itritech.net/blog/supply-chain/.
[53] 黃靖萱and侯良儒, "碎鏈時代," 商業周刊 2020. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/S9UHG.
[54] 溫紹群, "產業數位轉型與智慧製造," 勤業眾信聯合會計師事務所, Nov 2019.
[55] 李瑞瑾, "窩家中躲疫情推升宅經濟！法人看好網通、串流、電商產業後市可期," ETToday, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/PBB64.
[56] 司徒達賢, "從異業結盟中 創造新契機," 天下雜誌, 31 Mar. 2015. [Online]. Available: https://www.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=5066306.
[57] Lorenzo Amicucci, "突破串流周邊傳輸技術，5G雲端遊戲顛覆電玩產業," 新通訊元件, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/S6764.
[58] 謝明珊, "整合5G與物聯網 五大產業受惠最深," Digitimes, 12 Sep 2020. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/RYPQS.
[59] 吳碧娥, "人工智慧演進：從雲端到邊緣 " 北美智權報, June 5 2019. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/SKTHD.
[60] 陳建成and陳昀暄, "多接取邊緣運算MEC技術," Journal of Information and Communication Technology, 2018. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/QTD99.
[61] 涂志豪, "5G商用服務 明年高速成長," 工商時報, Nov 24 2019. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/QVWT4.
[62] 鈦媒體, "IBM Watson科學家：不應把AI理解為人工智慧而是「擴增智慧」 " 數位時代, Oct 28 2016. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/RQQ2C.
[63] "Global Telecommunications Report Includes 10-year forecasts to 2028," Fitch Solutions, pp. 5-9, Q1 2020. [Online]. Available: www.fitchsolutions.com.
[64] "Global fixed broadband take-up forecasts by technology for up to 2025," Point Topics, 2019. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/RJH6D.
[65] 簡永昌, "林百里一張圖妙解5G＋AI商機，點名這3個產業最快落地 " 數位時代, Oct 31 2019. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/RVT6Z.
[66] 林茵薇and侯承劭 溫紹群, "力抗美國製造與紅潮 新台灣「智」造崛起," 勤業眾信 智慧製造大解讀, p. 7, 2016.
[67] 內政部建築研究所, "智慧建築解說與評估手冊," vol. 2011, pp. 1-23~1-37, 2011.
[68] Wikipedia, "李克特量表," vol. 51254014, 2018. [Online]. Available: https://pse.is/QUNBB.