本篇研究考量橋梁結構在生命週期內的材料劣化，並試圖模擬其在地震威脅及河川沖刷等複合災害下的破壞機率。為模擬橋梁結構在劣化狀態下的反應，由劣化程度重新定義材料的應力應變組成律，再以轉換後的塑性鉸性質定義於數值模型之中，並進行非線性動力分析。而橋梁的可靠度由已考慮變異性的外力與需求計算之，探討橋梁結構在特定劣化程度、沖刷深度、地動強度下的易損性。結構生命週期中在河流沖刷事件與地震事件發生下的破壞機率，以矩陣形式建立兩危害類型之聯合發生機率，其中在建立沖刷深度與事件發生機率時，已將沖刷量的不確定性考量其中；而在探討地震強度與事件發生機率關係的過程中，也考量了震源強度衰減的變異性，再取保守計算得之。最後綜合結構易損性與威脅發生機率取得破壞機率，以較為廣義的角度，提供一套評估橋梁生命週期內安全性與可靠度的方法。

This study aims to assess the failure probability under seismic and scour risks considering the degradation of substructure material within its design service period. To simulate the performance of a deteriorated bridge structure, developing the constitutive law of materials behavior for evaluating the hinge properties of piers is needed. Furthermore, the aforementioned data is utilized to construct a bridge model for performing nonlinear time-history analyses. Based on analysis results, structural demand is acquired. The structural capacity can be determined from design guideline. With information of demand and capacity, the fragility of bridge under specific material degradation, scouring depth, and seismic intensity can be evaluated. In addition, the joint occurrence probability of scour and seismic hazards is built as a matrix form, in which the uncertainty of scour depth is taken into account using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). On the other hand, the variability of intensity attenuation is considered to calibrate the relationship between seismic intensity and occurrence probability. By combining the conditional probability and the occurrence probability of hazard events, a reliability-based method to assess the bridge performance under scour and seismic attacks is established.

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