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研究生: Tran Thi Ly
Tran Thi Ly
論文名稱: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE, INTEREST RATE AND REAL ESTATE STOCK: A CASE STUDY FOR VIETNAM
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE, INTEREST RATE AND REAL ESTATE STOCK: A CASE STUDY FOR VIETNAM
指導教授: 劉代洋
Day- Yang Liu
口試委員: 張光第
Guang Di Chang
許馨方
Hsu - Fang Hsu
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2018
畢業學年度: 106
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 58
中文關鍵詞: macroeconomic variablesreal estatelong run equilibriumcausalityVietnam
外文關鍵詞: macroeconomic variables, real estate, long run equilibrium, causality, Vietnam
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  • The objective of this study is to examine the association between exchange rate, interest rate and stock price of real estate industry in Vietnam by applying Vector Error Correction Estimates model (VECM). Furthermore, the causality¬ among these variables also is examined by applying pair-wise Granger causality model. Before applying VECM model, the author also run unit root test to check the stationary characteristic of time series and run Johansen co-integration test to check the whether the co-integrating equation exists. The firms relating to real estate sector selected for this study are the top ten firms in terms of market capitalization in Vietnam. The data for the selected firms, exchange rate and interest rate is daily data obtained for the period of January 2016 to March 2018. Findings of this study are useful for investors, managers of real estate firms and policy makers. From the standpoint of investors, they can predict the movements of stock price based on information of exchange rate and interest rate. From the standpoint of real estate’s firms, they can forecast the favorable time for stock price to support the decision of raising capital. Similarly, policy makers can stabilize the stock market fluctuations by adopting appropriate policy towards to exchange rate and interest rate for time and time.
    The results in this study disclose that there exists the long run equilibrium relationship between three time series including stock price of real estate firms, exchange rate and interest rate. Specifically, the correlation of real estate stocks and exchange rate is positive, but the correlation of real estate stocks and interest rate is negative. It is found that the causal relationships which are from foreign exchange rate to interest rate, from real estate stocks to interest rate and from foreign exchange rate to real estate stocks.

    ABSTRACT I ACKNOWLEDGEMENT II TABLE OF CONTENTS III LIST OF FIGURES V LIST OF TABLES VI CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1 1.1. Research background 1 1.2. Research content 4 1.3. Research process 6 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 7 2.1. Framework for stock price and relationship between stock price and macro economic factors 7 2.2. Literature review for relationship between interest rate and stock price 9 2.3. Literature review for relationship between foreign exchange rate and stock price 11 2.4. The summary of extant literatures 12 2.5. Hypothesis 13 CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 16 3.1. Methodology 16 3.2. Data 23 CHAPTER 4: EMPIRICAL RESULTS 30 4.1. Vector error correction model (VECM) of real estate stock price, interest rate and exchange rate 30 4.2. ADF test 34 4.3. Johansen co-integration test 35 4.4. Granger causality test 37 CHAPTER 5 : CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 41 5.1. Conclusion 41 5.2. Recommendation 42 APPENDICES 44 APPENDIX 1. TOP 10 VIETNAM REAL ESTATE COMPANIES 44 APPENDIX 2. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS AND GRAPH OF REAL ESTATE STOCK INDEX (UNIT: POINT) 45 APPENDIX 3. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS AND GRAPH OF INTEREST RATE (UNIT: %) 46 APPENDIX 4. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS AND GRAPH OF EXCHANGE RATE (UNIT: VND/USD) 47 APPENDIX 5. RESULTS OF ADF TEST OF REAL ESTATE STOCK INDEX 48 APPENDIX 6. RESULTS OF ADF TEST OF INTEREST RATE 49 APPENDIX 7. RESULTS OF ADF TEST OF EXCHANGE RATE 50 APPENDIX 8. RESULTS OF COINTEGRATION TEST APPENDIX 9. RESULT OF VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL 51 APPENDIX 11. GRANGER CAUSALITY TESTS 54 REFERENCE 55

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