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研究生: 曾和順
Ho-sun Tseng
論文名稱: 應用資料探勘技術提升電話行銷成交率之研究—以國內某郵購公司為例
A Study of Using Data Mining Techniques to Promote the Deal Rate of Telemarketing—A Case Study of a Mail-Order Company
指導教授: 周碩彥
Shuo-yan Chou
口試委員: 謝光進
Kong-king Shieh
楊文鐸
Wen-dwo Yang
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業管理系
Department of Industrial Management
論文出版年: 2006
畢業學年度: 94
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 56
中文關鍵詞: 決策樹電話行銷支援向量機
外文關鍵詞: decision tree, telemarketing, support vector machines
相關次數: 點閱:302下載:3
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  • 在大量化生產、銷售以及消費的時代,各企業經營者基於生存之考量想盡辦法促銷自己的產品。郵購買賣為因應這時代而產生之新興交易型態,與一般傳統商店內販賣之行銷手法有所不同,郵購買賣希望透過「消除中間商」的方式直接對消費者銷售。
    而在需要處理龐大資料時代,如何有效提升處理效率且探勘出有用的知識是企業競爭優勢的來源,運用資料探勘技術協助市場區隔與促銷更是目前常用的方法。
    此篇研究目的在於透過資料探勘技術找出會員特性和投保意願的關聯性,幫助提升電話行銷的成功率,使個案公司不必花費資源在購買可能意願不大的客戶上。因此,本研究利用資料探勘技術中之支援向量機及決策樹預測顧客是否接受促銷活動。
    經實驗證明,支援向量機理論有很高的分類能力,而在資訊理解上,決策樹也擁有不錯的分類能力。透過此兩種方法能加速電話行銷人員對客戶進行分類工作,也能找出顧客接受電話促銷活動與否之潛在關鍵因素,以提升電話行銷的有效性。


    In this mass producing, selling and consuming era, each enterprises operator does everything possible based on the survival to promote his own product. Mail-order business is the emerging transaction according to this era. Different to the selling trick in the general traditional store, mail-order business hopes to directly sell to the consumer by eliminating the resellers.
    In the era, people need to process huge material. How to promote the processing efficiency effectively and to explore the useful knowledge is a source of the competition advantage. Using the data mining techniques assistance in market segmentation and promotion is the present commonly used method.
    The purpose of this research is to find the relationship between the personality trait and insuring intensity by data mining techniques. It helps to promote the success rate of telemarketing, and helps the case company not to spend the resources on the customers who has less desire to purchase. Therefore, this research uses the SVM and the decision tree to forecast whether the customer will accept the promotion.
    Proved after the experiment, SVMs theory has the very high classified ability. But in the understanding of information, the decision tree also has the good classified ability. Telemarketing staffs can accelerate the classified work to the customers by these two methods. They also can discover the key latent aspect that if customer accept the telemarketing or not. Finally, this research wishes to promote the validity of the telemarketing.

    摘要 I Abstract II 致謝 III 目錄 IV 圖目錄 VII 表目錄 VIII 第一章 緒論 1 1.1. 研究背景 1 1.2. 研究動機與目的 3 1.3. 研究架構 3 1.4. 研究限制 4 第二章 理論基礎與文獻探討 5 2.1. 決策樹 5 2.2. 支援向量機 6 2.3. 文獻探討 8 2.3.1. 電話行銷在保險業的相關研究 8 2.3.2. 資料探勘在保險業運用之相關研究 10 第三章 產業環境與個案公司簡介 14 3.1. 產業介紹 14 3.1.1. 郵購業介紹 14 3.1.2. 郵購業現況與發展 15 3.2. 保險業介紹 16 3.2.1. 保險的種類 16 3.2.2. 意外險現況與發展 17 3.3. 電話行銷之探討 18 3.3.1. 電話行銷在保險業應用之討論 19 3.4. 個案公司簡介 21 第四章 個案公司研究方法與研究結果 25 4.1. 資料分析範圍 26 4.2. 資料前處理 27 4.2.1. 資料淨化 27 4.2.2. 資料整合 27 4.2.3. 資料轉換 28 4.2.4. 資料正規化 32 4.3. 決策樹之建構過程 33 4.4. 支援向量機之建構過程 34 4.5. 實驗資料k-fold交叉驗證方式 36 4.6. 研究結果分析 39 4.6.1. 實驗前測 39 4.6.2. 支援向量機與決策樹實驗結果 42 第五章 結論與建議 49 5.1. 結論 49 5.2. 建議 50 5.2.1. 對個案郵購公司之建議 50 5.2.2. 對電話行銷策略制定之建議 50 5.2.3. 對後續研究之建議 51 參考文獻 52

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