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研究生: 洪瑞光
Randy Aditya Putra Ariussanto
論文名稱: APPLICATION OF MODIFIED KALMAN FILTER FOR ENSEMBLE ENGINEERING MODELS
APPLICATION OF MODIFIED KALMAN FILTER FOR ENSEMBLE ENGINEERING MODELS
指導教授: 呂守陞
Sou-Sen Leu
口試委員: 謝佑明
Yo-Ming Hsieh
李欣運
Hsin-Yun Lee
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工程學院 - 營建工程系
Department of Civil and Construction Engineering
論文出版年: 2018
畢業學年度: 106
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 72
中文關鍵詞: ensemble modelmodified kalman filterleak detectionsymbiotic organisms search
外文關鍵詞: ensemble model, modified kalman filter, leak detection, symbiotic organisms search
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In the recent years, the use of ensembles model in forecasting and assessing the uncertainty in engineering field has become more common, especially in weather forecasting. The main idea of ensemble model is to reduce the model and measurement error caused by the measurement data noises or even the structural uncertainty. This issue has been studied as an uncertainty quantification problem and the main goal is to assess the uncertainty from either model or measurement device so that they can be anticipated and reduced to obtain the almost optimal result. One of the ground breaking techniques to deal with this is, called filtering, which used for data assimilation method. Kalman Filter had been studied and developed throughout the years and has touches many fields in the engineering field such as weather forecasting, GPS system, and even leak detection techniques. It has gained popularity because of its simple conceptual formulation, relative ease implementation and versatile to be implemented and adjusted in certain problem. This research uses a modified Kalman Filter for ensemble models to calibrate hydraulic parameters. Water is the most essential element for human and every living creature. Water scarcity becomes one of the global major problem. Because of this, the need of a well-developed leak detection system is to reduce the water loss due to leak is needed for a better water distribution system. Depart from this issue, this research implements a modified Kalman Filter combined with the Symbiotic Organism Search Algorithm for an internal leak detection system technique in a pipeline system.


In the recent years, the use of ensembles model in forecasting and assessing the uncertainty in engineering field has become more common, especially in weather forecasting. The main idea of ensemble model is to reduce the model and measurement error caused by the measurement data noises or even the structural uncertainty. This issue has been studied as an uncertainty quantification problem and the main goal is to assess the uncertainty from either model or measurement device so that they can be anticipated and reduced to obtain the almost optimal result. One of the ground breaking techniques to deal with this is, called filtering, which used for data assimilation method. Kalman Filter had been studied and developed throughout the years and has touches many fields in the engineering field such as weather forecasting, GPS system, and even leak detection techniques. It has gained popularity because of its simple conceptual formulation, relative ease implementation and versatile to be implemented and adjusted in certain problem. This research uses a modified Kalman Filter for ensemble models to calibrate hydraulic parameters. Water is the most essential element for human and every living creature. Water scarcity becomes one of the global major problem. Because of this, the need of a well-developed leak detection system is to reduce the water loss due to leak is needed for a better water distribution system. Depart from this issue, this research implements a modified Kalman Filter combined with the Symbiotic Organism Search Algorithm for an internal leak detection system technique in a pipeline system.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS i ABSTRACT ii TABLE OF CONTENTS iii LIST OF FIGURES v LIST OF TABLES vii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Research Background 1 1.2 Research Scope and Objectives 3 1.3 Research Outline 4 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 7 2.1 Uncertainty Quantification 7 2.2 Modified Kalman Filter Practices in Various Research 9 2.3 EPANET for Water Network Simulation 11 2.4 Conventional Methods for Leak Detection System 12 2.4.1 External Method based Leak Detection System 12 2.4.2 Internal Method based Leak Detection System 15 CHAPTER 3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 18 3.1 Hydraulic Engineering Model and Simulation 18 3.2 Robust Design 19 3.3 Symbiotic Organism Search Algorithm 20 3.3.1 Mutualism Phase 24 3.3.2 Commensalism Phase 26 3.3.3 Parasitism Phase 27 3.4 Modified Kalman Filter for Model Ensemble 29 3.5 Chi Squared Minimization 31 CHAPTER 4 DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS 33 4.1 Design of Experiment Implementation for Modelling 33 4.2 Calibration and Ensemble Model for Parameter Determination 35 4.3 Model Analysis with Measurement Error Inclusion 45 CHAPTER 5 EVALUATION AND RESEARCH FINDING 47 5.1 Post Processing Phase Calculation 47 5.2 Summary of Performance Evaluation of Leak Detection System 53 CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSION AND FUTURE RESEARCH 55 6.1 Conclusion 55 6.2 Suggestion for Future Research 56 REFERENCES 57

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