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研究生： 莊凱翔
Kai-hsiang Chuang
論文名稱： 營造廠國際市場專案決策模式建立-應用多目標展望模式(MCPM)
International Market Entry Decisions for Construction Company Using Multi Criteria Prospect Model (MCPM)
指導教授： 鄭明淵
Min-yuan Cheng
口試委員: 楊亦東
I-Tung Yang
曾景琮
none
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 工程學院 - 營建工程系
Department of Civil and Construction Engineering
論文出版年： 2009
畢業學年度： 97
語文別： 中文
論文頁數： 112
中文關鍵詞： 國際市場 、營造廠 、模糊偏好關係 、多目標展望模式 、投標決策
外文關鍵詞： international market, contractor, FPR, MCPM, bidding decision
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  •  上一筆

    • 由於近年來台灣基礎建設日趨成熟，公共工程量也急劇減少，國內營造廠商面臨經營困難與生存的競爭；反觀國際，沙烏地阿拉伯、中國、越南、菲律賓、印度、馬來西亞等國，正積極建設、大興土木，因此國內營造業者為因應國內外市場的變化，正積極改組及思考尋求投注海外市場的合作發展機會，值此之際，國內營造廠商卻又面臨如何選擇適合國家及國際專案的難題。
    本研究發展─「營造廠於國際市場專案投標決策模式」，針對營造廠投入國際市場投標所面臨之風險，分為國家層級風險以及專案層級風險，並以此基礎將本決策模式區分為兩個階段作為考量：（1）國家層級階段：進入不同國家之風險評估；本階段應用模糊偏好關係（Fuzzy Preference Relations , FPR），針對經營企業的決策者進行風險偏好評估，藉此找到決策者所能承受的風險容忍度，提供符合決策者風險偏好之建議，做為第一階段先行篩選適合進入的國家，以縮短決策評估時間。（2）專案層級階段：國際市場專案投標決策模式選擇專案階段，決定參與投標之專案評估，本階段應用多目標展望模式（Multi Criteria Prospect Model , MCPM），配合符合決策者的機率權重函數（Probability Weighting Function）及效用函數（Utility Function）所得之效用值，作為最佳的評估準則，提供營造廠在進行國際市場專案投標決策的參考，找到符合需求之專案進行投標。

    As Taiwan’s infrastructure has improved a great deal in recent years, the number of public works required has decreased drastically. Local contractors are confronted with problems in management and finance, and competition has become keener than ever. By contrast, the construction industry is flourishing in countries such as Saudi Arabia, China, Vietnam, the Philippines, and India. Seeing a potential in the globalized market, construction companies in Taiwan seek to reorganize their structure and find an opportunity to bid into international projects in the form of cross-country cooperation. The choice of countries to invest and the ensuing problems related to international cooperation have become issues to be dealt with immediately.
    This paper “Building a Bid Decision Model for International Market Construction Projects in Contractor Using Multi Criteria Prospect Model” focuses on the risks entailed when a contractor enters the international market, and discriminates the factors from a macro level and a project level. (1) Macro level phase: Risk analysis on difference countries. This phase employs the Fuzzy Preference Relations (FPR) method to find the risk preference of industry manager, and is the first step for selecting suitable country entry. (2) Project level phase: Selecting the projects. This phase utilizes the Multi Criteria Prospect Model (MCPM), which finds the utility value for reference by using manager’s Probability Weighting Function and Utility Function when a company makes decisions.

    第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究動機 1 1.2 研究目的 3 1.3 研究範圍與限制 5 1.4 研究內容與流程 6 1.4.1 研究內容 6 1.4.2 研究流程 7 1.5 論文架構 10 第二章 文獻回顧 11 2.1 營造廠於國際市場投標之探討 11 2.1.1 營造廠現況概述 11 2.1.2 營造廠於國際市場投標之概述 16 2.1.3 國際市場專案投標決策模式之研究 18 2.2 效用函數理論 21 2.2.1 效用函數之定義 21 2.2.2 效用函數之基本假設 21 2.2.3 效用函數 24 2.3 修正的期望效用理論 25 2.3.1 期望效用理論的演進 25 2.3.2 相依排列期望效用理論(Rank-Dependent Expected Utility Theory) 26 2.3.3 免參數法導出效用函數值和機率權重函數值 27 2.4 多目標展望理論（MULTI CRITERIA PROSPECT MODEL－MCPM） 32 2.4.1模糊偏好關係（Fuzzy Preference Relations, FPR） 34 2.4.2累積展望理論（Cumulative Prospect Theory, CPT） 37 第三章 營造廠國際市場專案投標 決策模式建立 40 3.1 營造廠於國際市場專案投標之風險因子確立 40 3.1.1 探討國際市場專案投標風險因子 40 3.1.2 確立國際市場投標風險因子 45 3.1.3 確立國際市場風險因子層級 46 3.2 營造廠於國際市場專案投標之決策模式建立 48 3.2.1 第一階段：評估國家層級 50 　　3.2.1.1 確定國家層級影響因子相對權重 50 　　3.2.1.2 風險因子評分 55 　　3.2.1.3 計算各風險因子重要性程度 57 　　3.2.1.4 整體國家層級風險值計算 58 　　3.2.1.5 國家層級篩選機制 58 3.2.2 第二階段：評估專案層級 59 　　3.2.2.1確立影響預期獲利達成之風險因子 59 　　3.2.2.2計算專案層級風險因子相對權重 60 　　3.2.2.3 計算專案成功之預期機率 62 　　3.2.2.4 確立獲利之效用函數曲線 66 　　3.2.2.5 確立機率權重函數曲線 74 　　3.2.2.6 各國際專案效用值計算 85 　　3.2.2.7 確定最後投標方案 86 第四章 模式驗證與應用 87 4.1 案例分析 87 4.1.1 基本資料分析 87 4.1.2 國際市場專案投標方案擬定 87 4.2 國家層級風險評估 88 4.2.1 確定國家層級影響因子相對權重 88 4.2.2 進行國家風險因子評分 92 4.2.3 計算各風險因子重要性程度 94 4.2.4 整體國家層級風險值計算 95 4.2.5 國家市場可行性評估 95 4.3 國際市場專案投標決策模式 96 4.3.1計算專案層級風險因子相對權重 96 4.3.2 計算專案之預期成功機率 97 4.3.3 確立獲利之效用函數曲線 102 4.3.4 確立機率權重函數曲線 104 4.3.5 各國際專案效用值計算 106 4.3.6 確定最後投標方案 107 第五章 結論與建議 108 5.1 結論 108 5.2 建議 109 參考文獻 110 <附錄1> I-1

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