營造產業屬傳統產業，長期標案競爭下，承包廠商對於工程之工料成本、管理資金及風險控管日益精細，各競標決策人員進行競標金額估算費時冗長，又因材料價格變動、工作環境良莠不齊等變因，造成價格計算不易，故競標廠商多利用主觀經驗判斷法(Experienced Judgment Method)進行初期成本推估。但不同的專業人員主觀判斷容易造成估算結果有所差異，無法有效精算成本參考值進行標案競爭，亦或工程進行中發現與經驗衝突及人為估算的錯誤，反致公司陷入虧損的窘境。本年度計畫(第二年度)研究延續並改良上年度所提出之研究方法，從政府電子採購網站針對橋梁工程下載民國97年至98年橋梁新建、改建、修建的營建專案資料，應用問卷調查、專家訪談、案例研究及層級分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process ; AHP)結合模糊理論(Fuzzy Set)決定影響成本屬性之權重，其次結合蒙地卡羅模擬法( Monte Carlo Simulation)所得之累積機率分佈曲線(Cumulative Distribution Functions；CDF)提供不同信心水準下的成本資訊，推求成本可靠度(Reliability)，模型的系統化建構流程與機率曲線期能作為推估成本與評估價格風險的分析工具。

Construction industry in one of the conventional industries. Through severe competitions, contractors have been spending lots of effort in the management and control of not only material cost but also running capital and risk. Due to the limited availability of tools or any reliable methodology, executives need to rely largely on their experience and make judgments about a lot of uncertainties before they can come up with a viable bidding price to win projects. Such a subjective approach could make contractors vulnerable to incidences or events which cannot be anticipated or even in total confliction with their experience. In this study, bridge construction projects data were collected from the government e-procurement system, covering not only new but also rebuild and repair constructions. Fuzzy Set and Analytic Hierarchy Processes are applied on these data to identify the weight of various factors that could affect the cost which were further substantiated by questionnaire survey, expert consultancy and case studies. The Cumulative Distribution Functions derived from Monte Carlo Simulation is then used to offer viable cost estimates at different confidence levels; along with the associated reliability. The contribution of this study is therefore to offer a structured and systematic cost estimate model to support cost/bidding decision as well as risk management.

Al-Harbi, K. M. A.-S. (2001). "Application of the AHP in project management." International Journal of Project Management, 19(1), 19-27.
Alberto Reficea, D. C. (2002). "Probabilistic modeling of uncertainties in earthquake induced landslide hazard assessment." Computers & Geosciences.
Alissa, K., Gregory, A. K., and Gloria, E. H. (2008). "Integrated Life-Cycle Assessment and Life-Cycle Cost Analysis Model for Concrete Bridge Deck Applications." Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 14(3), 214-222.
Arslan, T. (2009). "A hybrid model of fuzzy and AHP for handling public assessments on transportation projects." Transportation, 36(1), 97-112.
B.A. Kitchenham, L. P., S. Linkman, P. Jones. (2005). "A framework for evaluating a software bidding model." Information and Software Technology, 747-760.
Buckley, J. J., Feuring, T., and Hayashi, Y. (2001). "Fuzzy hierarchical analysis revisited." European Journal of Operational Research, 129(1), 48-64.
Chang, D.-Y. (1996). "Applications of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP." European Journal of Operational Research, 95(3), 649-655.
Cheng, C.-H., and Mon, D.-L. (1994). "Evaluating weapon system by Analytical Hierarchy Process based on fuzzy scales." Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 63(1), 1-10.
Chou, J.-S., Wang, L., Chong, W. K., and O'Connor, J. T. "Preliminary cost estimates using probabilistic simulation for highway bridge replacement projects." San Diego, CA, United States, 939-948.
Cooper, D., Grey, S., Raymond, G., and Walker, P. (2005). Project Risk Management Guidelines: Managing Risk in Large Projects and Complex Procurements, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., West Sussex, England.
Duran, O., and Aguilo, J. (2008). "Computer-aided machine-tool selection based on a Fuzzy-AHP approach." Expert Systems with Applications, 34(3), 1787-1794.
Elkjaer, M. (2000). "Stochastic budget simulation." International Journal of Project Management, 18(2), 139-147.
Fishman, G. S. (1996). Monte Carlo: concepts, algorithms, and applications Springer-Verlag, New York.
Friedman, L. (1956). "A Competitive Bidding Strategy." Operations Research, pp.104-112.
Grann, J. G. D. (1980). "Extensions to the multiple criteria analysis of T. L. Saaty." Report National Institute of Water Supply.
Katalin Eged, Z. K., Gabriele Voigt. (2006). "Review of dynamical models for external dose calculations based on Monte Carlo simulations in urbanised areas." Journal of Environmental Radioactivity 85.
Kaufmann, and Gupta, M. M. (1991). "Introduction to Fuzzy Arithmetic Theory and Applications " Van Nostrand Reinhold.
Khedr, M. K. (2006). "Project risk management using Monte Carlo simulation." 2006, p RISK.02.1-RISK.02.10.
Lai, Y.-T., Wang, W.-C., and Wang, H.-H. (2008). "AHP- and simulation-based budget determination procedure for public building construction projects." Automation in Construction, 17(5), 623-632.
Law, A. M., and Kelton, W.D. (1991). "imulation Modeling and Analysis, Second Edition. ." McGraw Hill, New York.
Law, A. M., and Kelton, W. D. (2007). Simulation modeling and analysis, 4th Ed., McGraw-Hill, New York.
P. J. M. Laarhoven, W. P. (1983). "A fuzzy extension of Saaty's priority theory." Fuzzy Sets and Systems.
Pan, N.-F. (2008). "Fuzzy AHP approach for selecting the suitable bridge construction method." Automation in Construction, 17(8), 958-965.
R.Y., (1981). " Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, John Wiley and Son." McGraw Hill, New York.
Robinson, S. (2004). Simulation :the practice of model development and use John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, West Sussex, England
Saaty, T. L. (1980). "The Analytical Hierarchy Process." 2-30.
Saaty, T. L. (1986). "Axiomatic foundation of the analytic hierarchy process." Management Science, 32(7), 841-855.
Saaty, T. L. (1990). "How to make a decision: The analytic hierarchy process." European Journal of Operational Research, 48(1), 9-26.
Saaty, T. L. (1993). "What is relative measurement? The ratio scale phantom." Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 17(4-5), 1-12.
Saaty, T. L., Vargas, L. G., and Wendell, R. E. (1983). "Assessing attribute weights by ratios." Omega, 11(1), 9-13.
Shahata, K., and Zayed, T. "Simulation as a tool for life cycle cost analysis." Miami, FL, United states, 2497-2503.
Shou K J., C. Y. L. (2005). "Spatial risk analysis of Li-shan landslide in Taiwan." Engineering Geology 80
Thoft-Christensen, P. (2009). "Life-cycle cost-benefit (LCCB) analysis of bridges from a user and social point of view." Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 5(1), 49-57.
Touran, A. (1993). "Probabilistic cost estimating with subjective correlations." Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 119(1), 58-71.
Touran, A., and Suphot, L. (1997). "Rank correlation in simulating construction costs." Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 123, 297-301.
Uher, T. E. (1996). "Probabilistic cost estimating model." Cost Engineering (Morgantown, West Virginia), 38(4), 33-40.
van Laarhoven, P. J. M., and Pedrycz, W. (1983). "A fuzzy extension of Saaty's priority theory." Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 11(1-3), 229-241.
Wall, D. M. (1997). "Distributions and correlations in Monte Carlo simulation." Construction Management and Economics, 15 241-258.
Wei-Chih,Wang., Ren-Jye, D., and Yu-Huang, L. (2007). "Integration of Simulation-Based Cost Model and Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model for Bid Price Decisions." Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 22(3), 223-235.
Yang, I. T. (2008). "Distribution-free Monte Carlo simulation: Premise and refinement." Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 134(3), 352-360.
內政部營建署. (2002). "政府採購法."
交通技術標準規範公路類公路工程部. (1993). "公路養護手冊."
余家祥. (2001). "以案例式推理建構建築工程成本估算系統." 國立中央大學土木工程研究所碩士論文.
翁祖炘, 林., 呂騏竹. (2007). "應用複迴歸與倒傳遞類神經網路模式探討排水溝工程成本預測之相依性—以南投地區為例." Taiwan Highway Engineering, 17, pp2-18.
翁祖炘、林利國、呂騏竹. (2007). "應用複迴歸與倒傳遞類神經網路模式探討排水溝工程成本預測之相依性—以南投地區為例." Taiwan Highway Engineering, 17, pp2-18.
陳維東, 潘., 劉述舜, 虞順逸. (2005). "應用迴歸分析預測道路工程之最低標價." 技術學刊, 387-397.
黃國平、林振國、許慶祥. "模糊理論與層 級分析法之結合與應用." 國立成功大學交通管理科學研究所.
潘南飛. (2005). "公路工程進度延誤之風險分析." Journal of Technology, Vol. 20, No. 3, pp. 249-260.
鄧振源、曾國雄. (民國 78 年). "層級分析法（AHP）的內涵特性與應用（下）." 中國統計學報, 第 27 卷，第7 期，頁1-2.
謝文山. (2002). "演化式建築工程成本概算模式之研究." 國立台灣科技大學營建工程系碩士論文.