營建產業工程技術隨著科技不斷進步，然而營建專案成本管理的技術與手段卻時常拘泥於傳統的書面作業程序，大部分的成本管理手段著重於事後的查核與管制，而並未以整體的角度分析專案成本的趨勢與走向。因此本研究利用動態貝氏網路建置專案成本超支預測模型，將成本管理中成本估算的概念融入成本控制的技術中，亦即藉由對未來成本狀態的預測，評估當下可能造成影響的因子，並隨時彈性的調整管理的重點，達到提前預防的效果，並可提升整體專案管理的效益。
本研究探討靜態貝氏網路機率推理的模式，並運用動態模擬的方式，建構動態貝氏網路，藉由各種不同的運算架構，找出最精確的預測效果，以供管理者提早採取措施，降低成本超支發生的機率。

The technologies using in construction engineering industry progress with the development of science and technology. However, most of the management methods used for cost control in constructional projects are rigidly conventional written operating procedures, which focus only on checking and control as an afterthought instead of analyzing the tendency of the constructional project cost with an integrated view.
As a result, the purpose of this study is to establish a model that is cable to estimate the overhead possibility of project cost using a dynamic Bayesian network and integrating the concept of cost estimating into the technologies of cost control Moreover, by estimating the future cost tendency, evaluating possible influential factors, and adjusting the focus of management, the efficiency of project management and avoidance of overhead in project cost will be increased.
This study focuses on discussing the theory of static Bayesian network, and establishing dynamic Bayesian network by using dynamic simulation. According to different calculation processes, a precise result of the estimation of project cost can be found, and that offers managers more information to reduce the possibility of cost overruns.

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