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研究生: 林書儀
Shu-yi Lin
論文名稱: 美國都會區房價分析
A Study of Housing Price in U.S.A. Metropolitan Areas
指導教授: 林維熊
Wei-Shong Lin
口試委員: 葉明義
Ming-Yih Yeh
梅國忠
Kuo-Chung Mei
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 企業管理系
Department of Business Administration
論文出版年: 2012
畢業學年度: 100
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 77
中文關鍵詞: 房價房價變動異質房地產市場美國大都會區
外文關鍵詞: Housing price appreciation rate, Heterogeneity
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  • 本研究探討影響美國大都會區房屋價格與房價波動之因素,且分析各地區之房屋市場的差異為同質或異質市場。實證結果顯示,大都會區的總人口數、老年人口比例、亞洲人口比例、家戶中位數所得、租金所得比率對房價有正向影響;而暴力犯罪率、法拍屋率、空屋率或固定抵押貸款利率對房價有負向影響。本研究亦發現,大都會區的房價變動指數、估計房價變動比、老年人口比例、學歷為大學或以上的比例、人均國內生產毛額或上班通勤時間對房價變動有正向影響;而失業率、空屋率、家庭中位數所得或租金所得對房價變動有負向影響。考量區域差別,總人口數、老年人口比例、暴力犯罪率與拍屋率對房價的影響力在東北部都會區較西部大;總人口數與抵押貸款利率對房價的影響力在東北部都會區較中西部大;總人口數、老年人口比例、租金所得比對房價的影響力在東北部都會區較南部大。此外,相對於東北部都會區,家庭所得對房價變動的影響力在南部較小。


    The objective of this research is to find the determinants which influence housing price and housing price appreciation rate among MSAs in the United States. According to the suggestion of Reichert (1990), it is better to separate a real estate market into 4 regions to analysis whether the markets are homogeneous or not.
    The objective of this research is to examine both the determinants which influence housing price and housing price appreciation rate among metropolitan areas (MSAs) in the United States and whether the U.S.A. real estate markets are homogeneous or not.
    The empirical results show that the factors, total population of the MSAs, the proportion of elderly population, the proportion of Asian population, median household income, and rental income ratio, have a positive impact on house prices; however, the factors, violent crime rate, foreclosure rate, vacancy rate and fixed mortgage rate, have negative impact on house prices. This study also find the following factors, the change of the house price index, the estimated ratio of the housing price appreciation in the future, the proportion of elderly population, the proportion of the degree of bachelor or above ratio, per capita gross domestic product, and the commute time to work, have a positive impact on housing price appreciation. While the unemployment rate, vacancy rate, median family income and rental income ratio on housing price appreciation have a negative effect.
    Furthermore, this paper shows that the effects of total population, the proportion of elderly population, violent crime rate and foreclosure rate on housing price in Northeastern MSAs are greater than those in Western MSAs. The effects of total population and mortgage rate in Northeastern MSAs are greater than those in Midwestern MSAs. The effects of total population, the proportion of elderly population and rental income ratio in Northeastern MSAs are greater than those in Southern MSAs. In addition, the effect of median household income on housing price appreciation in Southern MSAs is smaller that in Northeastens.

    第一章 緒論.............................. 01 第一節 研究背景與動機.................. 01 第二節 研究目的....................... 02 第三節 研究流程....................... 03 第二章 文獻探討........................... 04 第一節 決定房價與房價波動之因素.......... 04 第二節 基要價值....................... 06 第三章 研究方法........................... 09 第一節 研究結構....................... 09 第二節 研究推導....................... 10 第三節 資料蒐集....................... 12 第四節 研究變項之定義與衡量方式.......... 13 第四章 研究結果........................... 18 第一節 樣本描述性統計分析............... 18 第二節 複迴歸分析..................... 25 第三節 實證總結與分析.................. 37 第五章 結論與建議......................... 41 第一節 研究結論....................... 41 第二節 研究限制與未來研究之建議.......... 43 參考文獻................................. 44 附錄一................................... 47 附錄二................................... 70 附錄三................................... 71

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