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研究生: 黃日德
Nhat-Duc Hoang
論文名稱: Decision Support System for Construction Management Based on Evolutionary Least Squares Support Vector Machine
Decision Support System for Construction Management Based on Evolutionary Least Squares Support Vector Machine
指導教授: 鄭明淵
Min-Yuan Cheng
口試委員: 周瑞生
Jui-Sheng Chou
晁立中
晁立中
姚乃嘉
Nie-Jia Jerry Yau
曾惠斌
曾惠斌
郭斯傑
郭斯傑
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 工程學院 - 營建工程系
Department of Civil and Construction Engineering
論文出版年: 2013
畢業學年度: 101
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 179
中文關鍵詞: Construction ManagementArtificial IntelligenceDecision Support SystemLeast Squares Support Vector MachineDifferential EvolutionAdaptive Time FunctionFuzzy Logic
外文關鍵詞: Construction Management, Artificial Intelligence, Decision Support System, Least Squares Support Vector Machine, Differential Evolution, Adaptive Time Function, Fuzzy Logic
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  • Problems in the field of construction management are sophisticated, highly uncertain, and context-dependent. Thus, the application of artificial intelligence (AI) to tackle such problems can be a promising research direction. Considering the features and advantages of each AI technique, this research integrates various prevalent advanced approaches to establish a novel decision support system that utilizes Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM), Differential Evolution (DE), Adaptive Time Function (ATF), and Fuzzy Logic (FL). At the first stage, LS-SVM is incorporated with DE to create Evolutionary Least Squares Support Vector Machine Inference System (ELSIS) in which LS-SVM is utilized as a supervised learning method used for regression analysis/ classification in high dimensional space and Differential Evolution is employed to identify the optimal set of tuning parameters. At the second stage, ATF is integrated into ELSIS to establish Adaptive Time-Dependent Evolutionary Least Squares Support Vector Machine Inference System (ELSIST). In ELSIST, ATF is deployed to deal with the unbalanced nature of time series data. At the final stage, ELSIS incorporates FL to develop Evolutionary Fuzzy Least Squares Support Vector Machine Inference System (EFLSIS) in which FL aims at facilitating the system capability of approximate reasoning and coping with vague information. Experimental results obtained from system applications demonstrate that the newly established inference system can be a highly beneficial for decision-makers when solving various problems in the field of construction management.


    Problems in the field of construction management are sophisticated, highly uncertain, and context-dependent. Thus, the application of artificial intelligence (AI) to tackle such problems can be a promising research direction. Considering the features and advantages of each AI technique, this research integrates various prevalent advanced approaches to establish a novel decision support system that utilizes Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM), Differential Evolution (DE), Adaptive Time Function (ATF), and Fuzzy Logic (FL). At the first stage, LS-SVM is incorporated with DE to create Evolutionary Least Squares Support Vector Machine Inference System (ELSIS) in which LS-SVM is utilized as a supervised learning method used for regression analysis/ classification in high dimensional space and Differential Evolution is employed to identify the optimal set of tuning parameters. At the second stage, ATF is integrated into ELSIS to establish Adaptive Time-Dependent Evolutionary Least Squares Support Vector Machine Inference System (ELSIST). In ELSIST, ATF is deployed to deal with the unbalanced nature of time series data. At the final stage, ELSIS incorporates FL to develop Evolutionary Fuzzy Least Squares Support Vector Machine Inference System (EFLSIS) in which FL aims at facilitating the system capability of approximate reasoning and coping with vague information. Experimental results obtained from system applications demonstrate that the newly established inference system can be a highly beneficial for decision-makers when solving various problems in the field of construction management.

    ABSTRACT 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 7 ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS 11 Abbreviations 11 Symbols 13 LIST OF FIGURES 17 LIST OF TABLES 19 CHAPER 1: INTRODUCTION 23 1.1 Research Motivation 23 1.2 Research Objectives 29 1.3 Scope Definition 30 1.3.1 Boundary Identification 30 1.3.2 Research Assumptions and Hypotheses 31 1.4 Research Methodology 32 1.5 Study Outline 38 CHAPER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 40 2.1 Least Squares Support Vector Machine 41 2.1.1 Basic Concepts 41 2.1.2 Advantages and Disadvantages 44 2.2 Differential Evolution 45 2.2.1 Basic Concepts 45 2.2.2 Advantages and Disadvantages 48 2.3 Unbalanced Learning for Time Series Prediction 50 2.3.1 Basic Concepts 50 2.3.2 Advantages and Disadvantages 54 2.4 Fuzzy Logic 56 2.4.1 Basic Concepts 56 2.4.2 Advantages and Disadvantages 60 2.5 Object-Oriented System Development 61 2.5.1 Basic Concepts 61 2.5.2 Advantages and Disadvantages 63 CHAPER 3: MODEL CONSTRUCTION 65 3.1 Model Architecture 67 3.1.1 EFLSIMT Model Architecture 67 3.1.2 ELSIM Model Architecture (The 1st Phase) 75 3.1.3 ELSIMT Model Architecture (The 2nd Phase) 76 3.1.4 EFLSIM Model Architecture (The 3rd Phase) 80 3.2 Model Application Process 82 3.2.1 Feasibility Study 83 3.2.2 Identifying Influencing Factors 84 3.2.3 Collecting Data 84 3.2.4 Processing Data 84 3.2.5 Training the Inference Model 85 3.2.6 Obtaining Prediction Results 85 3.2.7 Validation Method 85 3.2.8 Evaluating Prediction Results 86 3.2.9 Applying the Derived Solution 86 3.3 Model Limitations 87 3.4 Potential Application Areas 87 CHAPER 4: SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT 88 4.1 System Planning 90 4.2 System Building 91 4.3 System Deploying 105 CHAPER 5: CASE STUDIES AND SYSTEM VALIDATION 108 5.1 Estimating Groutability Using ELSIS 109 5.1.1 Problem Statement – Case 1 109 5.1.2 System Validation – Case 1 111 5.2 Predicting Construction Project Cost at Completion Using ELSIS 117 5.2.1 Problem Statement – Case 2 117 5.2.2 System Validation – Case 2 120 5.3 Estimating Construction Cost Index Using ELSIS 128 5.3.1 Problem Statement – Case 3 128 5.3.2 System Validation – Case 3 131 5.4 Forecasting Construction Project Cash Flow Demand Using ELSIST 139 5.4.1 Problem Statement – Case 4 139 5.4.2 System Validation – Case 4 142 5.5 Prioritizing Bridges for Maintenance Projects Using EFLSIS 151 5.5.1 Problem Statement – Case 5 151 5.5.2 System Validation – Case 5 153 CHAPER 6: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 163 6.1 Review Research Purposes 163 6.2 Research Accomplishments 164 6.3 Conclusions 165 6.4 Research Contributions 166 6.5 Future Research Directions and Recommendations 167 REFERENCES 169 CURRICULUM VITAE 178

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