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研究生: 楊珺婷
Chun-Ting Yang
論文名稱: 期貨投資者之存活分析—以台灣指數期貨為例
Survival Analysis of Futures Investors— Evidence from Taiwan Index Futures
指導教授: 陳俊男
Chun-Nan Chen
口試委員: 王澤世
Tse-Shih Wang
林軒竹
Hsuan-Chu Lin
鄭仁偉
Jen-Wei Cheng
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2017
畢業學年度: 105
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 48
中文關鍵詞: 蛇咬效應存活分析期貨市場
外文關鍵詞: Once Burned and Twice Shy Effect, Survival Analysis, Futures Market
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此研究分析交易者的交易行為以及損失獲利如何影響其存活結果。交易資料使用台灣期貨市場中的台灣股票指數期貨。此研究討論交易者是否會在經歷損失以後離開期貨市場。此研究發現交易者的交易經驗、交易次數以及累計報酬會正面影響交易者的存活。交易者交易次數越頻繁,交易者因為損失而離開市場的可能性越小。此外,交易者的累計損失、GSLL (Gains Short Loss Long)以及GFLM (Gains Few Loss Many) 會負向影響交易者的存活。研究發現當越接近離開市場的損失次數越多,交易者因為損失而離開市場的風險則越高。另一方面而言,當交易者持有獲利部位在較短的期間且持有損失部位在較長的期間時,會使得交易者因為投資行為偏誤而在期貨市場中存活時間較短。另外,當交易者獲利的數量較少而損失的數量較多時,交易者因為損失而存活時間較短。最後,長期投資者、境外投資者以及機構投資者會因為損失而更傾向於離開期貨市場。


This study is to analyze the impact of several traders trading behavior and gains or losses on the survival of traders. Our sample is from Taiwan Stock Index Futures (TX) Contract. We study whether traders may leave the market after experience losses. This study find that the survival of traders is positively influenced by trader experience, number of round trip and cumulative payoff. The more often traders trade, the less likely they will leave the market as the results of losses. Besides, the survival of traders is negatively affected by cumulative frequency of losses, GSLL and GFLM. When the nearest frequency of losses increases, the risk of leaving the market because of losses might also increase. On the other hand, when traders hold gaining positions in shorter period and hold losing positions in longer period, traders will survive shorter in the futures market because of the irrational behavior. Moreover, as traders gain in few amount and loss in many amount, traders will survive shorter in the futures market owing to losses. Finally, position traders, foreign and institutional traders are more prone to leave the market due to losses.

Abstract I 摘 要 II 誌 謝 III Contents IV List of Figures VI Lists of Tables VII Chapter1 Introduction 1 1.1 Research Background 1 1.2 Research Objectives 1 1.3 Research Flowchart 2 Chapter 2 Literature Review 3 2.1 Theoretical Part 3 2.2 Empirical Part 3 2.2.1 Experience 3 2.2.2 Number of Round Trips 4 2.2.3 Duration and Payoff 4 2.2.4 Frequency of Losing 4 2.2.5 Trading Style 4 2.2.6 Trader Sophistication 5 2.2.7 Once Burned and Twice Shy Effect 5 2.3 Methodology 6 Chapter 3 Data and Methodology 8 3.1 Data 8 3.2 Methodology 9 3.2.1 Variables and Hypothesis 9 3.2.2 Analysis of Trader Survival 13 Chapter 4 Empirical Result 15 4.1 Descriptive Statistics 15 4.2 Survival Curve 21 4.3 Kaplan-Meier estimator 22 4.4 Log-Rank Test (Comparison of two survival curves) 23 4.5 Cox Proportional Hazards Model 24 4.6 Sensitivity Analysis 26 Chapter 5 Summary 34 5.1 Conclusion 34 5.2 Research Recommendations 35 References 36

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