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研究生: 許育銘
Yu-Ming Hsu
論文名稱: 散戶投資人交易行為分析─以台指期貨為例
The Analysis of Individual Investors’ Trading Behavior:Evidence from Taiwan Futures Market
指導教授: 陳俊男
Chun-Nan Chen
口試委員: 張琬喻
Woan-Yuh Jang
郭啟賢
Chii-Shyan Kuo
余士迪
Shih-Ti Yu
陳榮欽
Carl R. Chen
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2015
畢業學年度: 103
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 60
中文關鍵詞: 期貨市場交易頻率交易行為交易績效
外文關鍵詞: Futures market, Trading frequency, Trading Behavior, Trading performance
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  • 本研究旨在探討投資人在期貨市場上進行交易時,是否會因自身交易頻率的不同,對於績效結果產生落差,因此透過選取2007年7月至9月共三個月之期貨交易期間做為樣本,並且將每個帳戶皆視為個別獨立投資人,依據帳戶下單成交的交易口數區分為五個層級,利用每口平均報酬計算出各層投資人的績效,藉此分析在不同交易頻率下對於投資表現的影響。
    研究結果顯示,散戶投資人進入臺灣期貨市場所獲得的績效報酬,與交易頻率間並無直接關係,然而績效報酬相對於交易操作,將與投資勝率、下單種類呈現正向關係;報酬標準差及持有時間則呈現負向關係,此外五個交易頻率層級下的散戶投資人,在投資勝率、持有時間、交易時段以及報酬標準差,各層級間皆存在顯著性的差異。
    最低交易頻率層級雖然因交易次數低造成持有期貨部位的時間長,然而勝率表現卻優於其他四者,下單交易集中於開盤或收盤期間的比重也較高,至於在最高交易頻率層級,雖然樣本期間內買賣次數多造成持有期貨部位的時間短,在勝率表現上也無市場上其他散戶投資人佳,然而在報酬標準差的評估上,明顯優於其他四者,同時下單交易集中於盤中時段,這些因素為兩者在交易操作上最大差異。


    The purpose of this study is to examine whether there are any differences between trading frequency and performance for investors at futures market. A selected sample of volatile trading days is chosen from July to September 2007, including intraday detailed transaction and order data from the TAIFEX. To achieve the research purpose, there are five levels made which are distinguished by average trading lots, and all accounts are seen as an individual investor. The return on investment of five levels will be evaluated by average return per lot, in order to analyze the investment performance between different trading frequency.
    The empirical result demonstrates that for individual investors at TAIFEX, there is no relationship between return and trading frequency. Furthermore, the return earned by individual investors has a positive relation with winning rate and target of ordering. Besides, it also has negative relation with standard deviation of returns and holding periods. For individual investors, there is a significant difference among five levels in terms of winning rate, holding periods, trading timing and standard deviation of returns.
    There are differences of trading behavior between highest and lowest trading frequency. Even though low frequency causes longer holding periods, winning rate of the level with lowest trading frequency is outstanding, and the orders are placed much close to opening trade or closing trade compared with other levels. For the level with highest trading frequency, the holding periods are short, but the winning rate does not outperform compared with other levels. However, the standard deviation of returns under this level is good and most of the orders are placed during the trading session.

    第壹章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與背景 1 第二節 研究目的 3 第三節 研究架構與流程 4 第四節 研究限制 5 第貳章 文獻探討 6 第一節 過度自信 6 第二節 過度自信與交易行為 7 第三節 交易頻率與投資績效 9 第參章 研究方法 12 第一節 研究資料 12 第二節 變數定義 14 第三節 假說建立 16 第四節 研究方法 19 第肆章 實證結果分析 24 第一節 各層散戶投資人交易績效 24 第二節 交易頻率與績效報酬關係檢定 27 第三節 交易操作與績效報酬關係檢定 30 第四節 不同交易頻率層級間差異分析 34 第伍章 結論與建議 46 第一節 研究結論 46 第二節 研究建議 47 參考文獻 48 (一) 中文部分 48 (二) 英文部分 48 附錄 50

    (一) 中文部分
    1.邱懷青(2010),以日內資料探討臺股期貨交易人之交易績效,國立中央大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
    2.楊純華(2007),期貨市場過度自信交易者交易行為之探討,國立成功大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
    3.陳立智(2008),頻繁交易者的淘汰與生存法則─針對台灣指數期貨契約,國立成功大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
    (二) 英文部分
    1.Barber, Brad M., and Terrance Odean (1999). “The Courage of Misguided Convictions.” Financial Analysts Journal (Special Issue on Behavioral Finance), pp.773-806.
    2.Barber, Brad M., and Terrance Odean (2000). “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors.” Journal of Finance, vol.55, pp.773-806.
    3.Barber, Brad M., and Terrance Odean (2001). “Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment.” Quarterly Journal of economics, vol.116, pp.261-292.
    4.Barber, Brad M., Yi-Tsung Lee, Yu-Jane Liu, and Terrance Odean (2006), “Who Loses from Trade? Evidence from Taiwan.” The 2006 Annual Meeting of American Finance Association, AFA, Boston.
    5.Barber, Brad M., Yi-Tsung Lee, Yu-Jane Liu, and Terrance Odean (2006), “Just How Much Do Individual Investors Lose by Trading?” Working Paper.
    6.Chuang, Wen-I, and Bong-Soo Lee (2006). “An Empirical Evaluation of the Overconfidence Hypothesis.” Journal of Banking and Finance, vol.30, pp.2489-2515.
    7.Daniel, Kent, David Hirshleifer, and Avanidhar Subrahmanyam (1998), “Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions.” Journal of Finance, vol.53(6), pp.1839-1985.
    8.De Bondt, W.M.F., and R.H. Thaler (1995). “Financial Decision-Making in Markets and Firms: A Behavioral Perspective.” Robert A. Jarrow, V. Maksimovic and W.Z. Ziemba(Eds.).: Finance, Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science, vol.9, pp.385-410.
    9.Gervais, Simon, and Terrance Odean (2001). “Learning to be Overconfident.” Review of Financial Studies, vol.14(1), pp.1-27.
    10.Gervais, Simon, J.B.Heaton, and Terrance Odean (2002). “The Positive Role of Overconfidence and Optimism in Investment Policy.” Working Paper, University of California, Berkeley.
    11.Han, Bing, Yi-Tsung Lee, and Yu-Jane Liu (2009). “Investor Trading Behavior and Performances: Evidence of Taiwan Stock Index Options.” Working paper.
    12.Hirshleifer, David, and Guo Ying Luo (2001). “On the Survival of Overconfident Traders in a Competitive Securities Market.” Journal of Financial Markets, vol.4, pp.73-84.
    13.Kahneman, Daniel, and Mark W. Riepe (1998), “Aspects of Investor Psychology.” Journal of Portfolio Management, vol.24, pp.52-65.
    14.Nicolosi, Gina, Liang Peng, and Ning Zhu (2008) “Do Individual Investors Learn from Their Trading Experience?” Journal of Financial Markets, vol.12, pp.317-336.
    15.Odean, Terrance (1998). “Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average.” Journal of Finance, vol.53, pp.1887-1934.
    16.Odean, Terrance (1999). “Do Investors Trade too much?” Journal of Finance, vol.55, pp.773-806.
    17.Statman, M., Steven Thorley, and Keith Vorkink (2006). “Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume.” Review of Financial Studies, vol.19(4), pp.1531-1565.
    18.Wang, F. Albert (2001). “Overconfidence, Investor Sentiment and Evolution.” Journal of Financial Intermediation, vol.10, pp.138-170.

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