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研究生: 莊朝崇
Chao-Chung Chuang
論文名稱: 應用類神經網路於信用卡授信決策考量因素之實證分析
Applying Neural Networks to Factors Analysis of Credit Card Loan Decisions
指導教授: 余尚武
Shang-Wu Yu
口試委員: 羅乃維
Nai-Wei Lo
洪政煌
Cheng-Huan Huang
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 資訊管理系
Department of Information Management
論文出版年: 2005
畢業學年度: 93
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 73
中文關鍵詞: 類神經網路授信政策逐步回歸分析信用卡
外文關鍵詞: Neural Network, Credit Policy, Credit Card
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  • 由於台灣地區信用卡的發卡量逐年增加,而且不管是簽帳金額、預借現金或是循環信用金額都逐年快速提高,因此信用卡市場成為金融業的必爭之地。各家金融業者,不論是外商銀行或是本國企業,無不全力搶食這塊大餅。截至94年1月底為止,循環信用金額已高達4,600多億元。
    雖然上述金額之利息收入非常可觀,若以20%之循環利率而言,約略年收入將近有920億元;每月的呆帳金額卻高達將近30億元,一年約略有360億元;每月之逾放比率則在3%之普,催收之逾放比約略為每月138億元;若扣除人事成本費用、催收費用及呆帳金額,金融業者的利潤則是大幅縮水。若是利率隨著降低之時,那麼真的是所剩無幾。
    因此如何找出良好之客戶,並篩選出信用不良之客戶已經是金融業之重要工作;所以制定一套良好的授信政策及使用正確的分析方法是不可或缺的。本研究運用類神經網路與逐步回歸分析授信相關之變數後發現,如果使用過少之變數,則會造成學習範例及測試範例的錯誤比例相當高;另外當學習筆數越多之時,訓練範例及測試範例正確率相對的提高許多。我們相信在目前的授信政策之下,若能搭配類神經網路做二次篩選,應該可以大大提高不良客戶之過濾,並提高金融業者之獲利。


    This project was aimed to apply Neural Networks to enhance factors analysis on credit granting decisions. It is imperative for every financial institution in Taiwan that issues credit cards to attract the customers with decent credits and identify those with poor credits. In order for a credit card issuing institution to become profitable and competitive in Taiwan, establishing viable yet discreet credit-granting policies along with accurate credit analysis is indispensable all along. By applying Neural Networks in factors analysis during credit granting process, it will certainly help each credit card issuing institution make wise yet profitable decisions on granting credits.
    The credit card market in Taiwan is booming rapidly over the last several years. The instances on credit card purchases, cash advance with a credit card and card debts in Taiwan continue to stack up at an accelerating rate. For example, the total amount of card debts incurred, as of January 2005, had already hit NT$460 Billion, and counting. It is easy to understand why every financial institution in Taiwan is eager to get into this credit card business. Almost all of banks, local or foreign, in Taiwan have been actively and aggressively taking on this business opportunity in the credit card market.
    The main profit gained by any credit card issuing institution comes from the debts accrued through compounding interests. The total amount of the credit card delinquency in Taiwan was NT$138 Billion, as of January 2005. This amount represented a 3.0% of delinquency rate. Consequently, a 20% of APR would have resulted into NT$92 billion in a revenue created by the outstanding debts of credit card as a whole. Under the current circumstances, the bad debts would represent a financial burden which is estimated to be at least 3 Billion NT dollars monthly and 36 billion NT dollars annually.
    The revenue generated from credit card interests is enormous by any means. Nonetheless, the profit of a credit card issuing institution tends to be significantly trimmed down by administrative costs, such as personnel and collection expenses, and bad debts assumed by the company. If interest rates ever go down, any single credit card issuing institutions would have gained even less and less profits with such a rate drop. As a result, in order to stay competitive yet still profitable in the market, all of Taiwan’s credit card issuing institutions ought to strengthen the credit granting process and make sound credit decisions that would ultimately lead to financial prosperity.
    This project has demonstrated that applying Neural Networks will enhance the credit granting process for each credit card issuing institution in Taiwan. As Neural Networks and Stepwise Analysis were being utilized, their variables showed that the more learning examples and testing examples were implemented, the greater accuracy of both examples would achieve. On the other hand, the lesser examples of both were employed, the less accurate both examples would become. The correlations depicted on the accuracy of learning and testing examples and the impact of Neural Network were evident and positive. It is proven that any credit card issuing institution in Taiwan would be benefited by applying Neural Networks during credit granting process so as to make profitable decisions on granting credits.

    目錄 摘要 ii Abstract iii 誌謝 v 目錄 vi 圖目錄 ix 表目錄 xi 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 4 1.3 研究架構及方法 5 第二章 文獻探討 7 2.1 信用卡簡介 7 2.1.1 信用卡的定義 7 2.1.2 信用卡的起源 7 2.1.3 信用卡的運作模式 8 2.1.4 信用卡現況 9 2.2 信用風險的評估要素 11 2.3 信用卡信用評估方法 13 2.3.1 經驗法則與主觀判斷法 13 2.3.2 信用評等制度 13 2.3.3 信用評分制 14 2.3.4 混合制度 14 2.3.5 統計方法 14 2.3.6 專家系統方法 14 2.4 相關文獻回顧 15 2.5 類神經網路 18 2.5.1 類神經網路基本架構 19 2.5.2 類神經網路模式 20 2.6 倒傳遞神經網路 23 2.6.1 網路架構 24 2.6.2 網路演算法 26 第三章 研究方法 28 3.1 資料來源及欄位內容 28 3.1.1 資料來源說明 28 3.1.2 欄位內容說明 28 3.2 資料分析 34 3.3 變數正規化處理 39 3.3.1 無序分類變數 39 3.3.2 數值變數 40 3.3.3 範例之數目 41 3.3.4 網路參數設定 41 3.3.5 變數檢定 43 3.4 類神經網路建立 46 第四章 實證分析 48 4.1 類神經網路訓練方式說明 48 4.2 類神經網路參數設定及樣本說明 48 4.3 類神經網路結果分析 49 4.3.1 訓練資料佔母體50%,模擬資料佔母體50% 49 4.3.2 訓練資料佔母體80%,模擬資料佔母體20% 49 4.3.3 逐步選取變數法(Stepwise) 50 4.3.4 所有變數均為類神經網路預測之變數 51 4.3.5 客戶不同之比較,訓練資料佔母體50%,模擬資料50% 51 第五章 結論及建議 69 5.1 結論 69 5.2 研究限制及建議 72

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