研究生: |
林俊傑 Jiun-Jie Lin |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
存活分析運用於路燈維護庫存管理之研究 Research on Survival Analysis Applied to Street Light Maintenance Inventory Management |
指導教授: |
呂守陞
Sou-Sen Leu |
口試委員: |
李欣運
詹榮鋒 |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
工程學院 - 營建工程系 Department of Civil and Construction Engineering |
論文出版年: | 2020 |
畢業學年度: | 108 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 110 |
中文關鍵詞: | 需求預測 、可靠度分析 、存活分析 |
外文關鍵詞: | demand forecasting, reliability analysis, survival analysis |
相關次數: | 點閱:291 下載:0 |
分享至: |
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
適當的路燈零件庫存量可以減少不必要的庫存成本或是缺貨風險,而要能找出最適當的庫存量,則需要能更為精確的預估路燈零件的損壞數量,然影響路燈零件損毀之因素甚多,包括零件本身、外在環境與使用頻率等等,這都會造成零件失效期之變化。目前評估零件失效期之方法包括因果關係法、回歸模式及時間序列法等類型,但因路燈零件眾多,零件損壞機率也不盡相同,運用數學模型來預估未來需求量可能可以得到較佳的準確率,而在可靠度領域裡,有很多機率分佈可以作為描述失效發生時間(time to failure)或壽命(life)的隨機特性,本研究即採可靠度分析方法:存活分析,藉由準確地預測各種路燈零件的需求量來降低零件的庫存成本,使路燈維護經費因庫存造成的不必要浪費能有效地減低,避免存貨過高造成成本增加或存貨不足造成服務水準降低等問題,進而提升路燈維護管理的維護品質及服務滿意度。
Appropriate inventory of street lamp parts can reduce unnecessary inventory costs or the risk of stock-outs. To find the most appropriate inventory, you need to be able to more accurately estimate the damage quantity of street lamp parts, which will affect the damage of street lamp parts. There are many factors, including the part itself, the external environment and the frequency of use, etc., which will cause changes in the expiration date of the part. The current methods for assessing the expiration date of parts include types such as causality, regression models, and time series methods. However, due to the large number of street light parts, the probability of part damage is also different. Using mathematical models to estimate future demand may be better. Accuracy, and in the field of reliability, there are many probability distributions that can be used to describe the random characteristics of time to failure or life . This study adopts the reliability analysis method: survival analysis, by accurately Forecasting the demand for various street lamp parts to reduce the inventory cost of parts, so that unnecessary waste caused by inventory due to street lamp maintenance expenses can be effectively reduced, avoiding problems such as increased costs caused by excessive inventory or reduced service levels caused by insufficient inventory, and further improve street lamps Quality and service satisfaction of maintenance management.
朱道鵬(2009),TFT-LCD Panel壽命研究,台灣科技大學工業管理系碩士論文。
呂傳豪(2015),水庫設施可靠度分析與更新機制之探討,台灣科技大學營建工程系碩士論文。
林建甫(2008),存活分析,雙葉書廊有限公司。
林新展(2006),汽車保修廠零件需求預測之研究-以XX汽車公司為例,華梵大學工業工程與經營資訊學系碩士論文。
林翰輝(2007),考慮需求不確定下庫存管理模式-以汽車維修零件為例,國立臺灣大學商學研究所碩士論文。
胡培中(2016),新北市徵求民間參與節能路燈換裝暨維護案推動經驗,中國工程師學會會刊。
袁國榮(2004),強化限制理論Demand-Pull補貨模式之研究,國立交通大學工業工程與管理學系博士論文。
張維友(2017),需求分群與預測模式之研究-以汽車維修零組件為例,國立台灣大學商學研究所碩士論文。
陳玫容(2012),應用癌症資料庫之線上存活分析系統,國立成功大學工業科學系碩士論文。
黃士逢(2001),產品壽命為混合分配的存貨模型之研究,淡江大學統計學系碩士論文。
黃自強(2000),服從韋伯分配的退化性商品在時變需求及缺貨部分待補假設下的存貨模型,真理大學數學科學系碩士論文。
黃燦盛(2002)產品配合使用介質的可靠度性能數據蒐集規畫與分析之研究,國立高雄第一科技大學機械與自動化工程系碩士論文。
劉冠群(2000),以可靠度方法配合裝備壽期失效曲線估算備份件之研究,國防大學中正理工學院兵器系統工程研究所碩士論文。
潘曉葦(2000),需求預測模式之建立,國立台灣科技大學資訊管理系碩士論文。
Altay, N., & Litteral, L. A. (2011). Service parts management: Demand forecasting and inventory control. London: Springer.
Brown, R. G. (1959). Statistical forecasting for inventory control. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Chambers, J.C. , Mullick, S.K. and Smith, D.D. (1971) “How to choose the right forecasting technique, ” Harvard Business Review.
D.R.Cox and D.Oakes(1984),Analysis of Survival Data,CRC Press.
Dieter Bartmann, Martin F. Bach(1992),Inventory Control: Models and Methods,Springer-Verlag.
Holt,C.C., (1975) “Forecasting Seasonal and Trends by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages.” Carnegie Institute of Technology, Pittsburgh,Pa.
John, P.K., and Melvin, L.M. (1997). Survival Analysis Techniques for Censored and Truncated Data. New York : Springer-Verlag.
Peter J. Brockwell , Richard A. Davis, (1996) “Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting .”Springer Texts in Statistics.
Peter J. Smith(2017),Analysis of Failure and Survival Data,CRC Press。
Plossl, G.W. (1973) “Getting the most from forecasts,” Production and Inventory Management, Vo l. 14, pp. 1-16.
Ross, S.,(1997)“Introduction to Probability Models”, Academic Press Inc.