研究生: |
劉育良 Yu-Liang Liu |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
數據誤差之資料同化技術於營建工程應用 Application of Data Error for Data Assimilation in Multi-Engineering Models |
指導教授: |
呂守陞
Sou-Sen Leu |
口試委員: |
辛其亮
施俊揚 |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
工程學院 - 營建工程系 Department of Civil and Construction Engineering |
論文出版年: | 2020 |
畢業學年度: | 108 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 69 |
中文關鍵詞: | 資料同化 、變量分析 、最佳化演算法 、集成卡爾曼濾波器 、資料誤差 |
外文關鍵詞: | Data Assimilation, Variable Analysis, Optimization Algorithm, Data Errors, Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) |
相關次數: | 點閱:187 下載:0 |
分享至: |
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
在過去針對資料誤差的處理,往往使用常見的統計分析量值來進行誤差處理,但資料的誤差有包含測量造成的誤差,以及預測模型造成的狀態誤差,在針對誤差時往往是結合在一起討論及處理,本研究使用資料同化的概念,將資料透過三維變量分析(3DVAR)以及四維變量分析(4DVAR)的代價函數(Cost Function)的建立,釐清在資料處理中,資料本身的測量誤差以及透過該物理量建立的數學模型中演算法內參數對於資料誤差的個別影響,並透過集成卡爾曼濾波器(Ensemble Kalman Filter)的計算,將資料進行過濾分析,並觀察資料的收斂情形。
資料同化系統可以使用在各個營建工程領域的應用,在本研究將使用自來水一字單管段,由文獻回顧創建一個實驗設計場域,藉由觀察管內的流態以及透過水力軟體的計算以及數學最佳化演算法的幫助,提供給資料同化系統帶有混合誤差的資料,並且針對實驗設計理面的參變數造成的差異進行評估,使用發展的集成卡爾曼濾波器(Ensemble Kalman Filter)來得到優化後的資料,並且使用基於3DVAR以及4DVAR的邏輯之EnKF來評估誤差收斂。發現兩者實際上可以同時處理測量誤差以及模型誤差。
In the past, statistical analysis was used to deal with data errors. However, data errors include measurement and state errors caused by prediction models. To deal with both errors simultaneously, this study applies the concept of data assimilation, in which three-dimensional variable analysis (3DVAR) and four-dimensional variable analysis (4DVAR) are available. Both can clarify the measurement error of the data itself and the analytical model. By the calculation of Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), it is observed that data error generally converges.
In this study, a simulation case of pipe segment was generated. With the use of the hydraulic software and the optimization algorithm, the output with mixed both errors (measurement error, model error) are provided to the data assimilation model. EnKF was used to evaluate the error convergence based upon the logic of 3DVAR and 4DVAR. It is found that both can practically deal with the measurement and state errors at the same time.
[1] Toth, Z. and E. Kalnay, Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Monthly Weather Review, 1997. 125(12): p. 3297-3319.
[2] Palmer, T., et al., The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) program on extended-range prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1990. 71(9): p. 1317-1330.
[3] Houtekamer, P., et al., A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction. Monthly Weather Review, 1996. 124(6): p. 1225-1242.
[4] Gneiting, T., et al., Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Monthly Weather Review, 2005. 133(5): p. 1098-1118.
[5] Emannuel, K., Tropical cyclone activity downscaled from NOAA-CIRES reanalysis, 1908-1958.Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2010. 2(1): p. 113.
[6] Charney, J. G., Fjörtoft, R., and Neumann, J. V., Numerical integration of the barotropic vorticity equation. Tellus, 1950. 2(4): p. 237-254.
[7] Bergthórsson, P., and Döös, B.R., Numerical Weather Map Analysis. Tellus, 1955. 7(3): p. 897-914.
[8] 曾腊梅, 背景場誤差斜方差模擬對資料同化及數值預報效果的影響, 南京信息工業大學大氣科學學院氣象專業, 碩士論文, 2014。
[9] Gandin, L. S., Objective Analysis of Meteorological Fields. Israel Program for Scientific Translation, 1996. 242(53): p. 447.
[10] Sasaki, Y., Some basic formalisms in numerical vibrational analysis. Monthly Weather Review, 1970. 98(12): p. 875-883.
[11] Lorenc, A. C., Analysis methods for numerical weather prediction. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 1986. 112(474): p. 1177-1194.
[12] D. M. Barker, W. Huang, Y-R Guo, A.J. Bourgeois, Q.N. Xiao, A three-dimensional vibrational (3DVAR)data assimilation system for use with MM5:Implementation and Initial Results. Monthly Weather Review, 2004. 132(4): p. 897-914.
[13] 張華、薛紀善、庄世宇、朱國富、朱宗, GRAPeS 三維變分同化系統的理想試驗,氣象學報,2004,第62卷,第1期,頁31-41。
[14] Lewis, J. M., and Derber, J. C., The use of ad joint equations to solve a vibrational adjustment problem with advecitive constraints. Tellus A, 1985. 37(4): p. 309-322.
[15] 龔建東、邱崇踐、王強、陳偉民, 區域四維變分資料同化的數值試驗,氣象學報,1999,第57卷,第2期,頁131-142。
[16] Delgado-Aguiñaga, J.A., et al., Multi-leak diagnosis in pipelines based on Extended Kalman Filter. Control Engineering Practice, 2016. 49: p. 139-148.
[17] Ganesh, C., et al., Leak Identification using Extended Kitanidis-Kalman Filter. Computer Aided Chemical Engineering. 2015, Elsevier. p. 1817-1822
[18] Wu, X., et al., A modified Kalman filter algorithm for fractional system under Lévy noises. Journal of the Franklin Institute, 2015. 352(5): p. 1963-1978.
[19] Laveti, G., G.S. Rao, and B. Bidikar, Modified Kalman Filter for GPS Position Estimation over the Indian Sub Continent. Procedia Computer Science, 2016. 87: p. 198-203.
[20] Sullivan, T.J., Introduction to uncertainty quantification. Springer. 2015. Vol. 63.
[21] Marzouk, Y. and K. Willcox, Uncertainty quantification. The Princeton Companion to Applied Mathematics, 2015: p. 131-134.
[22] Zhang, J., Statistical pipeline leak detection for all operating conditions. Pipeline & Gas Journal, 2001: p. 42-45.
[23] Corvallis Forestry Research Community, 2009.
[24] M. S. Ghidaoui, A.A. Kolyshkin, F.C. Chan, J.H. Liang, and K. Xu, "Linear and Nonlinear Analysis of Shallow Wakes," Journal of Fluid Mechanics, vol. 548, pp. 309-340, 2006
[25] A.N., T., Locating Leaks with acoustic technology. American Water Works Association Journal, 2000. 92: p. 57-66.
[26] M.-Y. Cheng, D.P., Symbiotic Organisms Search: A new metaheuristic optimization algorithm. Computers & Structures, 2014. 139: p. 98-112.