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研究生: 劉育良
Yu-Liang Liu
論文名稱: 數據誤差之資料同化技術於營建工程應用
Application of Data Error for Data Assimilation in Multi-Engineering Models
指導教授: 呂守陞
Sou-Sen Leu
口試委員: 辛其亮
施俊揚
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工程學院 - 營建工程系
Department of Civil and Construction Engineering
論文出版年: 2020
畢業學年度: 108
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 69
中文關鍵詞: 資料同化變量分析最佳化演算法集成卡爾曼濾波器資料誤差
外文關鍵詞: Data Assimilation, Variable Analysis, Optimization Algorithm, Data Errors, Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF)
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在過去針對資料誤差的處理,往往使用常見的統計分析量值來進行誤差處理,但資料的誤差有包含測量造成的誤差,以及預測模型造成的狀態誤差,在針對誤差時往往是結合在一起討論及處理,本研究使用資料同化的概念,將資料透過三維變量分析(3DVAR)以及四維變量分析(4DVAR)的代價函數(Cost Function)的建立,釐清在資料處理中,資料本身的測量誤差以及透過該物理量建立的數學模型中演算法內參數對於資料誤差的個別影響,並透過集成卡爾曼濾波器(Ensemble Kalman Filter)的計算,將資料進行過濾分析,並觀察資料的收斂情形。
資料同化系統可以使用在各個營建工程領域的應用,在本研究將使用自來水一字單管段,由文獻回顧創建一個實驗設計場域,藉由觀察管內的流態以及透過水力軟體的計算以及數學最佳化演算法的幫助,提供給資料同化系統帶有混合誤差的資料,並且針對實驗設計理面的參變數造成的差異進行評估,使用發展的集成卡爾曼濾波器(Ensemble Kalman Filter)來得到優化後的資料,並且使用基於3DVAR以及4DVAR的邏輯之EnKF來評估誤差收斂。發現兩者實際上可以同時處理測量誤差以及模型誤差。


In the past, statistical analysis was used to deal with data errors. However, data errors include measurement and state errors caused by prediction models. To deal with both errors simultaneously, this study applies the concept of data assimilation, in which three-dimensional variable analysis (3DVAR) and four-dimensional variable analysis (4DVAR) are available. Both can clarify the measurement error of the data itself and the analytical model. By the calculation of Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), it is observed that data error generally converges.
In this study, a simulation case of pipe segment was generated. With the use of the hydraulic software and the optimization algorithm, the output with mixed both errors (measurement error, model error) are provided to the data assimilation model. EnKF was used to evaluate the error convergence based upon the logic of 3DVAR and 4DVAR. It is found that both can practically deal with the measurement and state errors at the same time.

中文摘要 I 英文摘要 II 致謝 IV 目錄 V 圖目錄 VIII 表目錄 X 第一章 緒論 1 1.1研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的與限制 2 1.3 研究架構與流程 3 第二章 文獻回顧 6 2.1 資料同化概述 6 2.2 各種研究中改進的卡爾曼濾波方法 9 2.3 不確定性量化及誤差 10 2.4 自來水管段檢測技術探討 11 第三章 研究方法 15 3.1 資料同化與成本函數 15 3.1.1 代價函數概述 15 3.1.2 代價函數各參數變數之意義 16 3.1.3 代價函數之背景場/觀測場探討 17 3.2 集成卡爾曼濾波器 18 3.3 水力分析軟體以及流體力學守恆式 21 3.3.1 EPANET水力分析軟體 21 3.3.2 流體力學守恆式 22 3.4 數學模型之最佳化演算法 25 第四章 實驗設計與分析 27 4.1 模型建構與實驗設計 27 4.3 資料同化與卡爾曼濾波測試 37 4.3.1. 集成卡爾曼濾波在測量誤差之測試 41 4.3.2 集成卡爾曼濾波在背景誤差之測試 43 第五章 評估與研究發現 45 5.1 三維變量分析導入研究 45 5.1.1 管徑差異 45 5.1.2 管長差異 47 5.2 四維變量分析導入研究 50 第六章 結論與建議 53 6.1 研究成果 53 6.2 研究限制與建議 54 參考文獻 55

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