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研究生: 陳和恭
He-kung Chen
論文名稱: 應用螞蟻族群最佳化求解專案風險處置資源分配之問題
Optimal project risk treatment resource allocation with Ant Colony optimization algorithm
指導教授: 黃世禎
Sun-jen Huang
口試委員: 王有禮
Yue-li Wang
鄭景俗
Ching-hsue Cheng
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 資訊管理系
Department of Information Management
論文出版年: 2008
畢業學年度: 96
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 88
中文關鍵詞: 風險管理風險處置資源分配螞蟻演算法
外文關鍵詞: risk management, risk treatment, resource allocation, ant colony algorithm
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  • 目前有關專案風險管理的相關研究都只著重於風險處置的制訂,而在選擇一個最有效的風險處置策略,卻沒有考慮到專案的資源,隱含著『資源充份供應』的假設。但在實務上,專案的資源是受到限制的,同一時間會有許多風險超過專案的可接受範圍,此時必須考慮到所有風險因子之處置方法所需耗用的資源與所能達到的效益,才能使整體專案的風險處置效益達到最大。
    因此基於上述的問題,本研究主要的目的是在探討在有限的資源下,如何選擇最佳的風險處置策略組合,使專案由開始到結束的整體風險可以降至最低。本研究根據過去的風險管理相關文獻,建立一個風險管理流程,並使用螞蟻族群最佳化演算法針對風險處置階段進行塑模,求解如何在專案有限的資源下,使專案的風險處置效益達到最佳化,並且在風險處置邊際效用遞減時,能即時重新評估專案整體最佳處置策略,以幫助專案經理了解專案風險的發展趨勢,並能採取最佳的風險處置策略組合,使專案的風險處置效益達到最大並整體風險降至最低,達到更有效的風險管理。


    Most of the past research studies on software project risk treatment put emphasis on the method of selecting most appropriate risk treatment strategies without considering the limited project resource which assumes the unlimited resource of a software project. However, the resources of a software project are limited in practice. Meanwhile, it is often for any of software projects that more than one software risk exceeds the acceptable threshed. Therefore, in order to maximize the effectiveness of project risk treatment strategies, it is essential for software project managers to consider the exhausted resource and earned benefit of each of risk treatment strategies.
    To address to the above problem, the study aims to research how to choose the best risk treatment portfolio under the constraint of the project’s limited resource, which can mitigate the risks of a software project most at each stage of the project life cycle. Based on the software risk management-related literature, this study proposes a software risk management process, which utilizes an optimization algorithm of ant colony for modeling and find out the best risk treatment strategy portfolio within the limited project resource, thus maximizing the effectiveness of the project risk treatment strategies. In addition, the proposed process can re-evaluate the risk treatment strategy portfolio in time when the marginal effect of a risk treatment strategy is decreased. This provides software project managers with the ability to choose the best project risk treatment strategy portfolio and further mitigate the project risks to the lowest degree, and thus attaining the purpose of an effective risk management.

    摘 要 I ABSTRACT III 誌謝 V 目 錄 VII 圖 目 錄 IX 表 目 錄 X 表 目 錄 X 第一章 緒論 1 1.1研究背景與動機 1 1.2研究目的 3 1.3研究架構及步驟 5 1.4研究範圍與前提 9 1.5本文架構 9 第二章 文獻探討 11 2.1專案風險管理之相關文獻探討 11 2.2風險處置之相關文獻探討 15 2.3資源分配之相關文獻探討 16 2.4螞蟻最佳化演算法之相關文獻探討 18 第三章 研究方法 27 3.1問題定義 27 3.2模式建構流程 28 3.2.1風險辨識 29 3.2.2風險定性分析 30 3.2.3擬定風險處置策略 31 3.2.4選擇最佳風險處置策略 32 3.2.5風險監控 33 3.3螞蟻族群最佳化模式建立 33 3.3.1數學符號說明 33 3.3.2目標式 35 3.3.3螞蟻演算法求解流程 36 第四章 實例驗証 47 4.1參數最佳化設定 47 4.2實例驗証 47 4.2.1第一期風險管理活動 47 4.2.2第二期風險管理活動 56 4.3與現況方法比較分析 65 第五章 結論與建議 69 5.1研究貢獻 69 5.2研究困難 70 5.3後續研究建議 70 參考文獻 71 作者簡介 75

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