臺灣四大都會區房價泡沫與經濟因素的探討｜國立臺灣科技大學博碩士論文系統

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研究生：	黃俊雄 Jyun-syong Huang
論文名稱：	臺灣四大都會區房價泡沫與經濟因素的探討 Economic Factors and House Price Bubbles: Evidence from Four Taiwan Metropolitan Areas
指導教授：	張光第 none
口試委員:	張順教 none 張逸民 none
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	管理學院 - 財務金融研究所 Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年：	2012
畢業學年度：	100
語文別：	英文
論文頁數：	30
中文關鍵詞：	基本價值、泡沫、房價
外文關鍵詞：	fundamental values, bubble, house price
相關次數：	點閱：455 下載：2
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查詢本校圖書館目錄查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統勘誤回報

本研究主要探討台灣四大都會區和台灣整體的房價泡沫現象，並分析影響房價和房價泡沫的經濟要素。接著，我們分析不同縣市的泡沫狀況。資料時間為1998年至2010年的季資料，資料來源包含信義房價指數、貨幣供給量、消費者物價指數、家戶可支配所得及股價指數。我們應用家戶可支配所得的研究方法，估計房屋的基本價值。接著利用狀態空間模型判斷房價泡沫是否存在。我們的研究結果顯示出台灣和四大都會區存在房價泡沫的現象，而房價和房價泡沫兩種變數在台北和台中皆受到貨幣供給的影響。在台灣區域、新北市和高雄市影響因素皆不同。

This study is aimed to investigate house price bubbles for four Taiwan metropolitan areas and Taiwan area as a whole and to analyze the possible economic factors that affect the fluctuation of house prices and house price bubbles. Then, we analyze the difference of influence factors between house price and house price bubbles among cities of Taipei, New Taipei, Kaohsiung and Taichung from Q1/1998 to Q4/2010. The data include the Sin-Yi Price Index, money supply, consumer price index, household disposable income and stock price. We apply the household disposable income methodology to estimate fundamental house values by using the state space model to measure house price bubbles. Our findings conclude that house price bubbles exist in Taiwan and four cities and both house prices and bubbles are significantly influenced by the money supply in Taipei and Taichung. In Taiwan area, New Taipei and Kaohsiung, the influence factors are not the same.

Content
Section 1: Introduction --------------------------------------------------------------------4
Section 2: Literature Review
  2.1 Bubble Economy ----------------------------------------------------------------------6
  2.2 Fundamental Value of House Price ------------------------------------------------8
  2.3 The Classification of Bubbles -------------------------------------------------------9
  2.4 Factors that Influence Bubbles ----------------------------------------------------10
Section 3: Data and Methodology
  3.1 Data------------------------------------------------------------------------------------12
  3.2 Unit Root Test-------------------------------------------------------------------------13
  3.3 Time-Varying Present Value Methodology----------------------------------------17
  3.4 State Space Mode and the Kalman filter------------------------------------------19
  3.5 Empirical Results---------------------------------------------------------------------20
Section 4: Conclusion ---------------------------------------------------------------------27
References------------------------------------------------------------------------------------28

List of Tables and Figures
Table 1: Data Description of Variables ------------------------------------------------------13
Table 2: Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test ----------------------------------------------------14
Table 3: House Price Bubble and Test of the State Space Model ------------------------21
Table 4: House Price and the Regression Test ---------------------------------------------25
Table 5: House Price Bubble and the Regression Test ------------------------------------26
Figure 1: House Price Per Ping in Taiwan Area and Four Cities ------------------------15
Figure 2: Household Income in Taiwan Area and Four Cities ---------------------------16
Figure 3: House Price-Household Income Ratio in Taiwan Area and Four Cities----16
Figure 4: The ratio of house price bubbles to the Taiwan house price-------------------22
Figure 5: The ratio of house price bubbles to the Taipei house price--------------------22
Figure 6: The ratio of house price bubbles to the New Taipei house price-------------23
Figure 7: The ratio of house price bubbles to the Taichung house price----------------23
Figure 8: The ratio of house price bubbles to the Kaohsiung house price--------------24

                                

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全文公開日期 2017/07/24 (校內網路)
全文公開日期本全文未授權公開 (校外網路)
全文公開日期本全文未授權公開 (國家圖書館：臺灣博碩士論文系統)

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