本研究焦點主要運用統計科學方法建立財務預警模型，有助於在企業財務危機發生前，即可預測出公司可能發生危機之機率高低。實證分析上，本研究首次嘗試使用財務比率與非財務比率變數分析集團企業，且透過常態性檢定(K-S檢定)、平均數(M-U)檢定，建構Logit迴歸模型。研究發現預測企業財務危機之變數主要仍以財務比率變數為主，經由台灣集團企業財務危機發生前一至三年預測變數發現，前一、二年以財務比率變數為主，至前三年則以一個財務變數、二個股權結構變數呈現顯著差異。財務比率變數以財務結構、償債能力、獲利能力、現金流量等指標為主。股票質押後董監事持股比率財務危機公司與正常公司呈現顯著差異。設置獨立董監事可降低發生財務危機的可能性。因此，儘早設置獨立董監事，公司治理能力愈高，則公司的經營狀況相對穩健，愈不容易發生財務危機。準此，本文的研究與實證價值焦點在財務風險管理及公司治理之意涵。

This paper primarily uses statistical methods to establish financial early-warning models that make it possible to predict, in advance, the probability of a company experiencing financial distress. In its empirical analysis, this is the first study that attempts to use financial ratios and non-financial ratios as variables to analyze business groups, and in the present study we use the (K-S tests), and (M-U tests) and logit regressions model. Findings- Financial ratio variables remain the primary variables for predicting corporate financial distress. Upon examining the predictor variables for corporate financial distress at one, two, and three years prior to distress, we found that financial ratio variables were the main ones at one and two years prior to distress, while at three years prior to distress there was one financial ratio variable and two ownership structure variables that showed significant differences. Financial structure, solvency, profitability, and cash flow indicators are the principal financial ratio variables. Ratios of director and supervisor ownership stakes after pledging of shares differed significantly between financially distressed and non-distressed companies. Establishing independent directors and supervisors can lower the likelihood of financial distress. Originality/value- the mean contribution of this paper is that establishing independent directors and supervisors can lower the likelihood of financial distress. The paper is useful to any researchers or practitioners who are focused on financial risk management and corporate governance implementation.

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