執行EPC (設計、採購、建造)統包工程專案，由於企業實體可能缺乏足夠的當地環境資訊和在地的執行經驗，在專案過程中很容易出現許多不確定性的風險，影響專案目標的達成。因此，必須應用適當的管理方法來交付EPC專案並在過程中儘早辨識和控制潛在風險的發生。不確定性風險的發生對專案成本和時程的變化有著極大的衝擊性，進而導致對投標價格及預期完工時程的低估或高估。所以，為達到專案目標，執行風險管理是絕對必要的。

本研究對專案風險管理的過程進行了全面性系統化的分析與探討。首先提出了風險分類的分層結構，辨識出在專案執行過程中可能發生的風險項目與探討對主要風險項目的預防性對策。在風險分析的基礎上，為未開拓新領域市場的風險管理規劃提供了參考，系統化地研究關鍵成功因子（CSF）、專案風險管理和EPC專案執行績效之間的因果關係，提出ITTO(輸入，工具和技術以及輸出)概念模型來交付EPC專案，用多元迴歸分析的方法來估算路徑係數以證明三者之間確實存在顯著的關連性。接下來，經由實際的案例研究，使用風險登錄表進行定性分析，再用模擬方法進行量化分析。提出了一種數學混合方法用於專案的綜合評估，以描述專案風險的成本效應與時程影響。藉由蒙地卡羅模擬的結果提出詳細和合理的預期完工成本與時程來探討專案的執行方式及風險應變管理計畫的決定，並實現對估算的時程及成本不確定性的有效管理；在本研究中亦發展出一套考慮風險和趕工計畫以及趕工成本和延遲罰款之間關係的數學模型，使用CPLEX編碼的整數線性規劃方法來評估在時間和成本的限制條件下專案執行的適當策略分析及優化專案可行性。在以前的研究中，專案風險與趕工策略的相關性鮮少被同時評估，這個研究透過量化專案可行性的評估來填補這一部分研究的空缺，利用風險，時程和成本的綜合數據作為評估指標。

本研究的結果為專案執行風險應變管理計畫和時程-成本權衡分析提供了綜合性的評估策略參考，並幫助專案經理在執行EPC專案時能事先有效地評估潛在風險的影響及其回應對策，以避免造成專案時程延遲及成本超支。

In the implementation of EPC (engineering, procurement, and construction) turnkey projects, the business entity may have insufficient local environmental information and execution experience. As a result, several uncertain risks might occur during the project, thereby affecting the achievement of project objectives. Appropriate management methods must be applied in delivering EPC projects to identify and control potential risks as early as possible in the process. Uncertain risks considerably affect the cost and schedule variations of the project, thereby underestimating or overestimating the tender price and expected completion schedule. Thus, risk management must be implemented to achieve the project objectives.

In this study, a comprehensive and systematic analysis is conducted for the process of project risk management. Initially, a hierarchical structure of risk classifications with the identified risk factors that may occur during implementation is proposed and the preventive countermeasures are discussed as well. On the basis of risk analysis, the cause-effect relationship among the critical success factor (CSF), project risk management, and EPC project performance is studied systematically to provide reference points for risk management planning in an unexplored market. An input, tool and technique, and output (ITTO) conceptual model is proposed to deliver the EPC project. A multiple regression analysis is adopted to estimate the path coefficients for proving the significant correlation among the abovementioned three factors. Subsequently, an actual case study is conducted to perform a qualitative analysis using risk register and a quantitative analysis with simulation method. A mathematical hybrid approach is proposed for comprehensively evaluating the project to describe the effect of project risk on the cost and schedule. Via Monte Carlo simulation, detailed and reasonable expected completion cost and schedule are provided to discuss the project execution method and determine the risk contingency management plan. In this manner, an effective management can be achieved on the estimated schedule and cost uncertainty. Furthermore, a mathematical model considering the relationship among risk, crashing plan, crashing cost, and delay penalty is developed. A mathematical integer linear programming model coded using CPLEX is developed to assess appropriate strategies for optimizing the feasibility of project execution under time and cost constraints. In previous researches, the correlation between project risk and crashing strategy has been rarely evaluated simultaneously. This work fills this research gap by quantifying the feasibility of a project, with combined data on risk, schedule, and cost as evaluation indicators.

The results of this study provide a comprehensive assessment strategy reference for project risk contingency plan and time–cost trade-off analysis. These results also help project managers effectively assess the effect of potential risks and their response strategies in the implementation of EPC projects in advance. As such, the schedule delays and cost overruns in project execution can be avoided.

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