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研究生: 黃賴熙
Lai_Shi Huang
論文名稱: 認知價值估算方法__以感覺閾限為例
Cognitive Value Estimation Method __Take sensory threshold as an example
指導教授: 施劭儒
Shao-Ju Shih
口試委員: 王丞浩
Chen-Hao Wang
周育任
yu-jen Chou
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工程學院 - 高階科技研發碩士學位學程
Executive Master of Research and Development
論文出版年: 2022
畢業學年度: 110
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 123
中文關鍵詞: 價值心智模式營銷策略心理物理感覺閾限
外文關鍵詞: value, mental model, marketing, strategy, psychophysical, sensory threshold
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  • AMA(American Marketing Association) 於2011年對營銷(Marketing)的定義中, 點明了價值(Value)才是最終的交易標的, 其受益對象擴大到包含人類以外的群體.

    彼得杜拉克(Peter Drucker)認為對行銷的關注和責任, 必須由企業所有部門共同承擔, 但若無法形塑企業所有人共同的心智模式, 就無法合作有效行動.

    電腦產業全球出貨量自2011年起逐年下滑, 即使Covid-19疫情帶來居家工作對電腦的需求, 展望未來, 不容樂觀, 電腦產業除了展開多角化經營來彌補未來減損的營業額外, 更必須在產品規劃和研究發展提高命中率, 這需要明確的策略來分配資源, 指導行動, 為思考指引方向.

    本研究探討如何由巨觀的遠眺, 到內省自身的方式來產生策略時, 發現當策略要落地時, 我們需要可信的數據來幫助決策.

    Weber, Fechner, Steven 等心理物理學家証明心智模式是可以量測的, 本研究設法找出人類對包括價格在內的, 不同物理刺激的偏好曲線, 以歷史銷售量為基礎, 估算出各項物理刺激對應到產品上的權重, 進而可應用於估算出整體的偏好, 供策略制定及規劃科技技術藍圖之用, 其中發現價格即使容易被模仿而失去競爭力, 但仍是最主要的偏好, 而依經驗, 品質則難以模仿, 是最具價值的競爭力.


    AMA(American Marketing Association) defined 「Marketing」 in 2011, and it pointed out that 「Value」 is the ultimate transaction target, its beneficiaries are expanded to include groups other than humans.
    Peter Drucker believes that the attention and responsibility for marketing must be shared by all departments of the enterprise. But if we cannot shape the common mental model of all business members, you cannot cooperate and act effectively.
    The global shipments of the computer industry have been declining year by year since 2011. Even though the Covid-19 epidemic had increased the demand for computers for work from home, it is not optimistic when looking forward to the future. Besides launching diversified operations to compensate for future revenue losses, the computer industry must increase the hit rate while product planning and research and development of existing operations, which requires a clear strategy to allocate resources, guide actions, and guide thinking.
    When this research explored strategies from the macro view to the introspection of oneself, we found that we need credible data to help building up strategies.
    Psychophysicists such as Weber, Fechner, Steven, etc. proved that mental models are measurable and rigid, this research tended to figure out human preference curves for different physical stimuli, including prices. Based on historical sales, estimates the weights of each physical stimulus of products, which can then be used to estimate overall preferences. It is useful for strategy formulation and planning of technology roadmap, although price is most attractive factor but it can be adapted by competitor easily, and quality is the most reliable competition factor.

    目錄 摘 要 1 Abstract 2 誌 謝 3 目錄 4 圖目錄 6 表目錄 8 第一章 緒論 9 研究動機 12 研究目的 14 論文架構 15 第二章 文獻探討與產業分析 16 2.1電腦產業概況 20 2.2技術發展概況 26 2.3後疫情筆記型電腦產業/市場及生活形態變化 29 2.4 電腦產業更關注ESG 環境 社會 及企業治理 34 2.5個案公司簡介 37 第三章 研究方法 39 3.1.1 PEST 分析 41 政治Political 41 經濟Economic 41 社會 Social 41 科技 Technological 41 3.1.2 五力分析 59 3.1.3 SWOT分析 68 3.1.4 產品生命週期 68 3.1.5 Strategy Canvas 73 3.2 價值估算理論 77 3.2.1 Sensory Threshold 77 3.2.2 Lagrange Polynomial 81 3.2.3 Magic number 7±2 83 第四章 研究分析 84 4.1 後疫情時代NB研發策略藍圖 88 4.2 價值估算方法 99 第五章 結論與建議 111 5.1 結論與未來建議 113 5.2 研究限制 115 分析與檢討 115 研究限制 115 引用文獻 116 圖目錄 圖 1論文架構 15 圖 2 Marketing manager’s framework 18 圖 3 Effect of uncontrollable factors in the external environment on the marketing mix 19 圖 4 2022年NB出貨預估 21 圖 5 電腦產業概況_代工廠出貨概況 22 圖 6 電腦週邊設備產業鏈結構圖 23 圖 7 2010-2021全球PC出貨量 25 圖 8 1970-2030年電腦產業技術發展示意圖 26 圖 9 2021年1月至9月全球每日新增確診人數曁疫苗施打狀況 29 圖 10 2020-2021年NB產業5大重要議題 30 圖 11 2019-2022年Chromebook 家用/商用需求比例 31 圖 12 2020第二季至2022年第1 季NB 出貨預測 31 圖 13 疫情對網路活動的影響 32 圖 14 疫情期間網路活動投入時間變化 33 圖 15 全球風險落點 34 圖 16 華碩永續價值創造 38 圖 17 產業分析工具 40 圖 18 國際標章 48 圖 19 疫情期間生活投入時間改變 50 圖 20 疫情改變未來生活計劃 51 圖 21 全球人口年齡分佈 52 圖 22 中美貿易戰時序 54 圖 23 全球新建晶圓廠 55 圖 24 Intel CPU佔比 60 圖 25 DRAM容量 61 圖 26 NAND 佔比 61 圖 27 顯示晶片VS CPU 市佔 62 圖 28 2020-2021年電腦產業概況_品牌出貨概況 63 圖 29 NB ASP(average sale price) 67 圖 30 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 73 圖 31 Strategy Canvas 76 圖 32 Psychophysical Magnitue functions 80 圖 33 Lagrange Polynomial example 82 圖 34 Roadmapping success factors and barriers to success 88 圖 35 T_plan standard process steps 90 圖 36 Value proposition canvas Tesla 91 圖 37 Value proposition canvas case Toyota 92 圖 38 Stretagy canvas 開心的開會 95 圖 39 QFD(Quality function Deployment) 96 圖 40 TRM(Technology Roadmapping) example 98 圖 41 音量偏好曲線 101 圖 42 重量偏好曲線 104 圖 43 顯示器尺寸偏好曲線 106 圖 44 Training of preference weighting 110 表目錄 表格 1全球暨主要國家資通光電領域專利分佈表 27 表格 2各標章規範分析 48 表格 3 Chromebook 各品牌市占率 63 表格 4 Chromebook 各品牌企業用戶市占率 64 表格 5 NPS(net promoter score) example 87 表格 6 Key pain point workshop feedbacks 93 表格 7 簡易計算例 108

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