本研究主要利用VAR計量經濟模型(Vector Autoregression Model,VAR)，探討在奢侈稅實施期間，房價與熱錢的雙向關係。研究期間為2002年11月至2013年9月，進行實證研究分析。其中資料有六個變數，分別為房價、熱錢、股價、每人平均所得、匯率和利差，資料型式為月資料。本研究的結論如下：
1.實施奢侈稅並未影響台灣住宅市場房價結構。
2.奢侈稅後房價的上升會導致熱錢流入的短期增加，房價和熱錢存在單向因果關係。
3.熱錢對房價的影響並未顯著。

This paper presents the relationship between house price and “Hot money”after luxury tax in Taiwan .This paper shows basic methodology of VAR and using the VAR model to analysis the relationships. The research time was from November 2002 to September 2013.The model contains six variables ,which are house price index(HP),hot money(HM),stock price index(SI),per capita income(DPI),interest rate spread(IRS),and exchange rate(EX).All of the six variables are monthly data.
Empirical results suggest three main analysis:
1.There is no structural break in the data of House price after luxury tax.
2.The rise of house price leads the increasing of hot money, there is one way influence of house price to hot money.
3.There is no significant influence of hot money to House price.

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