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研究生: 宋瑋婷
Wei-ting Sung
論文名稱: 應用非合作賽局解算可維修產品之最佳延長保固策略
Determine the Optimal Extended Warranty Period for Repairable Product Using Non-cooperative Game
指導教授: 葉瑞徽
Ruei-huei, Yeh
口試委員: 許總欣
Tsung-shin, Hsu
張文亮
Wen-liang, Chang
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業管理系
Department of Industrial Management
論文出版年: 2013
畢業學年度: 101
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 68
中文關鍵詞: 延長保固史塔克伯格垂直奈許均衡賽局理論逆向歸納法
外文關鍵詞: extended warranty, Stackelberg, vertical Nash, game theory, backward induction
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  • 隨著市場競爭白熱化,產品保固已成為買方考慮是否購買產品的必備條件之一,保固除了可以降低買方獲得不良品的風險,也可以間接監督賣方製造產品的品質,此一趨勢使保固契約也成為產品行銷的考量因素之一。一般而言賣方所提供的保固期可分為基本保固期和延長保固期兩種。由於在基本保固期內,賣方必須負擔產品失效時所產生的維修成本,之後則由買方負擔其維修成本。有鑑於此,賣方就產品可靠度與小修效益最佳化考量下提供延長保固服務;而買方則就機台使用時間與維修效益最佳化之理性考量下尋求購買延長保固之最佳決策。在雙方都有各自策略,使買賣雙方於簽定延長保固合約時形成理性考量下的非合作賽局。故本研究利用史塔克伯格領導者賽局以及垂直奈許賽局分別建構三種延長保固情境,並利用逆向歸納法求取各情境的最佳均衡解。分析顯示史塔克伯格領導者賽局中為領導者的一方,容易引導跟隨者做出最優決策;若以垂直奈許賽局決策則僅得各自的最佳解組合。


    Market competition is making product warranty policy becomes one of the most required considerations for buyer's purchasing decisions. Therefore the warranty contract turns into a key perspective in product marketing owing to the warranty is not only to present risk reduction for buyers, but also to arise indirect supervisions of manufacturing quality for sellers. The seller provides basic and extended types of warranty to buyer. In the basic type of warranty, seller takes maintenance responsibility and cost, and then buyer takes afterward. This model makes seller determine a optimal policy to provide extended type warranty service under rational product reliability and minimum maintenance considerations. Hence buyer also forms an optimal decision to purchase the extended type warranty service by determining using time and utilities for minimum maintenance actions. Therefore both parties determine their own strategies in the extended warranty contract to be a rational non-cooperative game. In this study, we model a framework by using the Stackelberg leadership game and vertical Nash (VN) game to construct within three scenarios, and determine the equilibrium solutions for all scenarios by backward induction. The analysis result indicates the Stackelberg game is easier to approach an optimal equilibrium solution on condition that a follower-party could follow leader-party’s decision; the vertical Nash game only approach individual solution for each party.

    摘要 I Abstract II 目錄 III 圖目錄 VI 表目錄 VIII 第一章 緒論 1 1.1研究動機與目的 1 1.2研究範圍 3 1.3論文架構 4 第二章 文獻探討 6 2.1賽局理論 6 2.1.1賽局理論的架構 7 2.1.2史塔克伯格均衡 9 2.2 設備維修 10 2.3保固與延長保固 12 第三章 研究方法 14 3.1符號定義與基本假設 14 3.1.1符號定義 14 3.1.2基本假設 16 3.2 相關名詞定義 16 3.2.1 失效率 16 3.2.2 小修 18 3.2.3 逆向歸納法 19 3.3系統描述 20 3.4賽局推導 22 3.4.1 買賣雙方之收支模式 22 3.4.2 系統總利潤 29 3.5買方領導賽局 32 3.6賣方領導賽局 37 3.7垂直奈許均衡 41 第四章 數值分析 42 4.1參數設定說明 42 4.2 延長保固期數分析 43 4.2.1買方領導賽局 43 4.2.2賣方領導賽局 45 4.2.3垂直奈許 48 4.3 敏感度分析 49 4.4分析與比較 54 第五章 結論 57 5.1結論 57 5.2未來研究方向 58 參考文獻 60 附表1 買方主導下 、 與買賣雙方利潤關係 65 附表2 賣方主導下 、 與買賣雙方利潤關係 67

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