近年來隨著貿易障礙的逐步取消及跨國企業的全球化佈局，國際貿易的本質也產生改變。其中最重大的改變之一便是：伴隨著不同的國家對產品某個生產階段具備不同的專業化優勢，使得產品的製造過程延伸橫跨多個國家的現象逐漸明顯，此種專業化型態稱為貿易垂直專業化。而伴隨著此種全球生產體系的浮現，跨國間的技術輸入與技術輸出日益頻繁。然而，少有文獻針對貿易垂直專業化與跨國技術輸入所形成技術擴散做兩者關聯性探討。因此本研究探討的重點之一便聚焦於貿易垂直專業化與技術輸入所形成的技術擴散二者之間的關聯性。
此外，在探討技術輸入所引發的技術擴散的過程中，由於影響變數相當紛雜，且制度面的原因使跨年度技術輸入資料的蒐集有所中斷與偏漏，導致當進行縱剖面技術擴散研究時產生限制。因此如何克服此跨期資料中斷的限制，使技術輸入所引發的技術擴散能更嚴謹與完整的處理，也是本研究探討的重點。
針對上述問題，本研究除了分別建構動態一般化灰色預測模式、技術輸入之需求面驅動下擴散效果評估模式、技術輸入之供給面驅動下擴散效果評估模式及貿易垂直專業化評估模式建構等來進行上述議題的探討外，並以台灣製造業二十二個行業為研究對象進行實證。
主要研究結果如下：1.在個案一中，本研究提出動態灰色預測模式（T-DGGFM）並據此預測GDP值及經濟成長率，以進一步確認一般化灰色預測模型的精確度。本研究以10個國家的GDP的歷史數據進行預測建模並作測試。實證結果顯示，本研究所提出的動態一般化灰色預測模型在經濟成長率的預測上比IMF的預測更精確。2. 為解決技術輸入數據本身期數少、波動大、數據中斷等問題，本研究中結合一般化灰色預測模型與數據平滑法，並據此估測1996年及2001年台灣製造業二十二個行業之技術輸入值。3.在1994-2001年間，整體而言台灣製造業貿易垂直專業化與因技術輸入形成技術擴散的程度兩者之間具有高度顯著的關聯性。4.在1994-2002年間，整體而言台灣製造業貿易垂直專業化與次一期因技術輸入形成技術擴散的程度兩者之間具有高度顯著的關聯性。5.台灣製造業技術輸入所形成的技術擴散效果與次一期產業的貿易垂直專業化之間有相當顯著的關係。

In this study, we mainly discuss the relationship between technology imports and trade vertical specialization. Traditional technology indices provide limited information and pay no attention to inter-industry linkages. As a result, they usually underestimate the effect of technology imports. Therefore, the primary objective of this study is to assess the inter-industry linkage effect generated by technology imports under an inter-industry linkage structure, and evaluate the diffusion effect. Another objective of this paper is to measure trade vertical specialization levels and trends in manufacturing industry, and to examine the relationship between international trade in vertical specialization and the diffusion effect of technology imports. Longitudinal data and input–output tables are used to observe the temporal change trend of the diffusion effect of technology imports from 1995 to 2002 in Taiwan’s manufacturing industries.
Several conclusions can be made from the results of this study. First, the intra-industry demand-driven diffusion effects for the various industries do not show a significant rising or declining trend, except for the textile mill products industry, and the plastic products industry. The electrical and electronic machinery industry, the transport equipments industry and the chemical products industry generally remain in the top three positions throughout all periods. Traditional industries tend to lag behind in the ranking.
Second, from the supply-driven diffusion effect of technology imports, it can be shown that technology imports into Taiwan’s manufacturing technology industries generally bring about an increase in diffusion effects greater than technology imports into traditional industries. Besides, inter-industry supply-driven diffusion effects for the various industries generally shows a rising trend from 1995 to 2002.
Finally, due to multinational corporations outsourcing their production of products and components in order to reduce production costs and upgrade their manufacturing efficiency, by leveraging comparative advantages of different countries, there exists highly significant correlation between the level of trade vertical specialization of the Taiwanese manufacturing industries and the diffusion effect of technology imports from 1995 through 2002.

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