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研究生: 虞志秋
Zhi-Qiu Yu
論文名稱: 新事物共生需求預測之灰色系統動力學研究-以新能源汽車車樁比爲例
Research on Grey Theory and System Dynamic Prediction of Symbiotic Demand for New Products-Case of new energy vehicles to piles ratio
指導教授: 周碩彥
Shuo-Yan Chou
口試委員: 周碩彥
Shuo-Yan Chou
王孔政
Kung-Jeng Wang
喻奉天
Vincent F. Yu
游慧光
Tiffany Hui-Kuang Yu
陳振明
J.M. Chen
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業管理系
Department of Industrial Management
論文出版年: 2022
畢業學年度: 110
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 88
中文關鍵詞: 新事物共生需求預測系統動力學灰色預測電動車充電樁
外文關鍵詞: Symbiosis of new things, demand forecasting, system dynamic, grey forecasting, New energy vehicles, charging piles
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  • 隨著科學技術的進步,人類社會發展不斷提速。各種新生事物及其伴生物隨之生滅。面對新事物,人們充滿好奇。大家總是希望能在短時間內能對新事物及其共生物的發展需求進行預測和總結。
    由於新生事物及其共生需求的特點,系統動力學成為較為適宜的研究方法之一。但在實際研究中,經常碰到“因新生而少數據”的尷尬。為了解決少數據情境下的複雜共生需求預測研究,本文採用組合理念融合灰色預測理論的系統動力學進行探討,這樣既能實現定性與定量的結合,又能系統且全面地分析新事物共生需求的互動關係。
    本文通過對新能源汽車車樁比案例的研究,不僅綜合利用線性回歸等方法,還開放性的選擇了灰色理論來參與系統動力學的參數賦值和方程建立。可以看出在新事物共生環境下,包容性極強的系統動力學能很好地適應其研究需求。特別是灰色預測方法能非常靈活的實現少數據預測,避免因數據缺乏而導致研究止步,進而為少數據情境下的研究多提供了一種新選擇,便於人們能夠在共生事物發展的初期介入研究。


    With the advancement of science and technology, the development of human society continuously increase. Nowadays users have been overwhelmed by several new techniques and products which are introduced almost every day. When dealing with new techniques and products, people are full of curiosity and always hope to be able to understand its performance as well as forecast its demands in a short period of time.
    Due to short period of time, the most prominent challenge we have encountered is "lacking data due to first appearance". In order to solve the complex forecast demand problem under lacking data situation, this thesis adopts the approach of integrating system dynamics and the grey forecasting theory to discuss, describe and analyze the interactions of different factors on product demands.
    Through the case study of the vehicle-to-pile ratio of new energy vehicles, not only the linear regression and other methods are used comprehensively, but also the grey theory is selected to identify parameters and establish equations of the system dynamics. It can be seen that in the innovative environment of new things, the system dynamics can be well adapted to the research needs. In particular, the grey prediction method is very effective in prediction performance of first appeared products when the data are limited. This prevent study from being stuck in early stage of the research when data are rare.

    中文摘要 I Abstract II 誌 謝 III 目 錄 IV 圖索引 VII 表索引 IX 第1章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景 1 1.2 研究動機 2 1.3 研究目的 3 1.4 研究的架構 4 第2章 文獻探討 6 2.1 新生事物共生需求預測的有關探討 6 2.2 關於系統動力學研究現狀 8 2.3 關於灰色系統理論的一些討論 11 2.4 關於灰色預測理論與系統動力學融合的相關探索 11 2.5 關於新能源汽車與充電樁的有關研究 12 2.6 本章小結 15 第3章 研究方法 16 3.1 系統動力學 16 3.1.1 系統動力學的建模基礎 16 3.1.2系統動力學主要建模過程與步驟 20 3.2 灰色系統理論 22 3.2.1 灰色預測的建模基礎 22 3.2.2灰色GM(1,1)預測模型的建模步驟 24 3.3研究的工具軟體 25 3.4 融入灰色GM(1,1)預測的系統動力學研究方法 27 3.5 本章小結 30 第4章 案例闡述 32 4.1 案例背景 32 4.2 模型變量 35 4.3 因果循環圖 36 4.4 系統流圖 38 4.5 參數的確定和方程 38 4.6 表函數的灰色預測GM(1,1)賦值 40 4.7 模型檢驗 46 4.7.1 量綱一致性檢驗和模型結構檢驗 46 4.7.2 極限檢測 47 4.7.3 敏感性檢測 48 4.8本章小結 49 第5章 案例情景分析與探討 51 5.1 案例情景模擬 51 5.1.1情境模擬2015-2030車樁發展 51 5.1.2 情境模擬調整私人充電樁模擬理想狀態車樁比 55 5.1.3 情境模擬強化公共充電樁的建設 57 5.1.4 情境模擬新能源汽車保有量加速 59 5.2 案例車樁比探討與建議 61 5.3 案例結論 62 第6章 结论建議 64 6.1 結論 64 6.2 研究建議與展望 65 參考文獻 67 附錄 67

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