本研究主要是在探討影響中國入境旅遊市場的因素。參考以往對於旅遊需求的文獻，本研究篩選出11個可能影響入境旅遊人數的因素，並採用16個中國的主要客源國的數據建構出一個非平衡縱橫資料迴歸模型，旨在估計中國入境旅遊人數及其影響因素之間的關係。再者，本研究利用BP- LM Test、Hausman Test篩選出適切的實證模型，而實證結果顯示：客源國的人均收入、中國和客源國之間的雙邊貿易與中國基礎設施的發展都能夠正面的吸引遊客到中國進行旅遊；然而，距離、中國的人均收入與SARS卻是阻礙中國入境旅遊發展的絆腳石。最後，為發展入境旅遊，本研究認為中國政府不能只重視經濟發展，而是應該全面性的提高其國內運輸建設並制定有效的旅遊災難管理計劃以防如SARS一般的流行病。

　　The primary purpose of this study is to measure the impact of the main determinants behind China’s international tourism demand. According to the general principles of economic theory and the classical literature on tourism demand, 11 determinants have been chosen as the independent variables in this study. By using data that correspond to 16 countries of origin over a period of 18 years (1995–2012), an unbalanced panel data model is created to estimate the relationship between the number of inbound tourist arrivals into China and its corresponding determinants. This study leverages the BP-LM test, and the Hausman test to choose the appropriate empirical method. The results show that the income of individuals from the source countries, bilateral trade between China and the source countries, and China’s infrastructural development can positively attract tourists to China. However, distance, the per capita GDP of China and SARS are obstacles to the development of China’s inbound tourism. Lastly, in order to further develop China’s international tourism demand, this study argues that the Chinese government should not only focus on its own economic development, but instead should comprehensively improve its transportation infrastructure and formulate an effective tourism disaster management plan in case of further outbreaks of epidemic diseases such as SARS.

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