研究生: |
傅彥霖 Yen-lin Fu |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
貝氏理論於水庫設施可靠度之探討 Study on Bayesian Theory Applied to Reliability Survey of Reservoir Facilities |
指導教授: |
呂守陞
Sou-sen Leu |
口試委員: |
卿建業
none 林建良 none |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
工程學院 - 營建工程系 Department of Civil and Construction Engineering |
論文出版年: | 2007 |
畢業學年度: | 95 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 152 |
中文關鍵詞: | 目視檢測 、可靠度 、多來源資訊 |
外文關鍵詞: | Visual inspection, Reliability, Multiple sources information |
相關次數: | 點閱:129 下載:1 |
分享至: |
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近年來,公共建設之需求日趨減緩,同時,因早期的公共工程在規劃與興建上多缺乏維護與管理的觀念,而使得政府在日後的經營上付出了相當的代價。傳統營建產業的設施維護管理工作,是有別於其他產業之設施維護管理作業,一般都是鮮少有破壞記錄之構造物及設備,因此要能累積足夠作為分析之歷史損傷資料,十分之不容易。
本論文為了確保設施運轉安全與工程設施之永續利用,針對水庫歷年累積之目視檢測資料,探討如何透過程式分析模擬獲得各設施系統與單元之可靠度,據此以提早採取措施,降低設備失效造成之損失。此外,為能於分析過程納入多面向資訊來源之概念,試圖以敏感度分析加以測試,以增進可靠度分析之效益,且有效掌握設施之狀態。
In recent years, demand of the public construction day by day reduced, simultaneously, because the early public works lacked the maintenance and management idea much in the process of plan and construction. That will cause the government to pay much in the future. The facility maintenance in traditional construction industrial was different from others. Generally speaking, all of them were the construction and equipment which had rare failure records. Therefore, it was not easy to accumulate enough historical failure records for analysis.
In order to guarantee the security of facility working and the exploitation of engineering construction which continued forever, this research is in view of accumulated visual inspection records from the past, and discusses how to get the reliability about each component and system through simulation. According to the above results to take an earlier measure, and to reduce the losses caused by equipment failure. Moreover, in order to add the concept about multiple sources information, tries to use sensitivity analysis for test, and promotes the benefit of reliability analysis, also effectively controls any condition of the facility.
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