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研究生: 周宇軒
YU-SHIUAN JHOU
論文名稱: 網路口碑預測電影票房之研究—以創新擴散階段及動機理論探討電影口碑影響力
Research on the Prediction of Film Box Office Based on Ewom- Exploring the Effect of Film EWOM by Innovation Diffusion Theory and Motivation Theory.
指導教授: 盧希鵬
Hsi-Peng Lu
口試委員: 黃世禎
Sun-Jen Huang
羅天一
Tain-yi Luor
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 資訊管理系
Department of Information Management
論文出版年: 2017
畢業學年度: 105
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 85
中文關鍵詞: 網路口碑電影社群媒體動機理論創新擴散理論
外文關鍵詞: EWOM, Movie, Social Media, Innovation Diffusion Theory, Motivation Theory
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  • 隨著數位內容以及社群媒體的蓬勃發展,虛擬社群口碑以及網路新聞的報
    導因便利性、具有保存功能與傳播更快更遠,其數量、內容以及反饋程度已經
    成為衡量產品預期銷售的重要指標。本研究透過實際網路資料的網路口碑數、
    正負面情緒數據、社群活躍度,衡量電影口碑與電影票房銷售間的相關性,並
    透過動機理論及創新擴散階段探討不同類型的電影口碑影響力。
    本研究共分兩大部分,第一部分探討的樣本資料為 57部 2016 年台灣上映
    電影,研究網路社群、新聞、討論區產生之對於該電影的討論數據與電影票房
    銷售的相關性,透過數據收集引擎,利用電影上映期間的網路討論聲量、好感
    度、社群活躍程度等,解釋與電影上映後票房銷售間的關係。本研究第二部分
    為透過動機理論以及創新擴散階段進行電影口碑影響力之探討,了解專業影
    評、大眾媒體、社群討論對於電影受眾的影響力,以及不同觀影時間消費者採
    納之層度。
    本研究發現,基於數據分析引擎收集之網路口碑量、以及該電影的社群活
    躍層度,皆與電影票房有正相關。而在口碑影響力部分,基於動機理論發現,
    專業影評對消費者本身的自我呈現有正面影響,大眾媒體對消費者本身的感知
    享受有正面影響,社群媒體對影響消費者的社會影響性及消費者自身的自我呈
    現、感知享受皆有正面影響,同時,社會影響性、自我呈現、感知享受均是形
    成消費者觀影意願的正面影響因子。


    The development and progress of Internet technology has changed human communication, The virtual communication channel like Social media 、E-news 、
    BBS, Gradually become more important than the tradition way due to its ability
    to spread further, faster and More preserved .
    This study is divided into two parts, the first part is to study the relevance of the EWOM(Electronic word-of-mouth) to the movie's sale performance . Base on box office of 57 Taiwan movie last year and Quantized internet discussion data of the film through the data collection engine. The second part of this study is to explore the influence of professional film media, mass media and social media on film audiences through the theory of motivation and Innovative Diffusion Theory,.
    The findings of this research reveals that volumn of internet discussion and activity degree of social media is positively associated with the movie box office;
    professional film media is positive influences to user’s “Self Presentation” , mass media is positive influences to user’s “Perceived enjoyment”, Social media is positive influences the “Social Influence” to user and user’s “Perceived enjoyment” and “Self Presentation” . In addition, “Social Influence”、 “Perceived enjoyment”
    and “Self Presentation” are positive influences to user’s “intention to watch movie”.

    中文摘要 3 ABSTRACT 4 誌謝 5 目錄 6 表目錄 9 圖目錄 11 壹、緒論 12 1.1 、 研究背景、動機 12 1.2 、 研究目的 13 1.3 、 研究流程 15 貳、文獻探討 16 2.1 、 電影與大數據相關研究 16 2.2 、 網路口碑 18 2.3 、 網路口碑對銷售的動態影響 20 2.4 、動機理論 22 2.4.1 、動機理論的定義 22 2.4.2 、 動機理論與消費者行為相關研究 23 2.5 、 創新擴散理論 25 2.5.1 、 創新擴散理論的定義 25 2.5.2、創新採用的感知特質 26 2.5.3、創新擴散理論相關研究 28 2.6 、 電影消費者生命週期 29 2.6.1 產品生命週期 29 2.6.2 創新採用者 30 2.6.3 電影消費採用者之定義 32 參、研究方法 34 3.1 、 研究假說 34 3.1.1網路口碑特徵與電影票房間的相關性 34 3.1.2 : 電影口碑對於觀影意願之影響力 35 3.2 、 研究模型與架構 37 3.3 、 研究對象與資料收集方法 39 四、資料分析與研究結果 41 4.1 網路口碑與電影票房之相關性 41 4.1.1 、 研究樣本 41 4.1.2、 統計分析 44 4.2不同類型電影口碑對觀影意願之影響力 45 4.2.1、 樣本基本資料 45 4.2.2、回收樣本之敘述統計結果 45 4.2.3、問卷測量模型 47 4.2.3.1、測量模型結果 47 4.2.3.2、信度與效度分析 47 4.2.4不同類型使用者的分類比較 53 第五章、結論與建議 55 5.1、研究發現與結論 55 5.1.1、網路口碑特徵與電影票房間的關聯性 55 5.1.2、不同類型電影口碑之影響力 56 5.2、研究貢獻與建議 59 5.2.1、研究上的貢獻 59 5.2.2、管理實務上的貢獻 60 5.2.3、實務建議 61 5.3、研究限制與範圍 62 5.3.1網路數據與電影票房相關性分析 : 62 5.3.2不同類型電影口碑影響力 : 62 5.4、後續研究建議 63 參考文獻 64 外部網站 68 附件1 正式問卷 69 附件2 與電影發行商訪談重點紀錄 73 附件3 詳細網路口碑數據 75

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