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研究生: 林逸杰
I-Chieh Lin
論文名稱: 優化預售屋初期設計方案之混合決策方法
A Hybrid Approach to Optimize Initial Design Strategies forPre-sale Housing Projects
指導教授: 阮怡凱
Yi-Kai Juan
口試委員: 彭雲宏
Yeng-Horng Perng
施宣光
Shen-Guan Shih
曾仁杰
Ren-Jye Dzeng
吳桂陽
Kuei-Yang Wu
阮怡凱
Yi-Kai Juan
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 設計學院 - 建築系
Department of Architecture
論文出版年: 2019
畢業學年度: 107
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 61
中文關鍵詞: 預售屋住宅品質成本與品質權衡差異化策略設計品質指標糊德爾菲法基於網絡分析法之決策試驗室與評價實驗法基因演算法市場銷售時間
外文關鍵詞: Pre-sale Housing, Housing Quailty(HQ), Cost-Quality Trade-off, Differentiation Strategies, Design Quality Indicator (DQI), Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM), DEMATEL based ANP (DANP), Genetic Algorithm (GA), Time-on-the-market (TOM)
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  • 住宅規劃與住宅品質一直是開發商永續經營的重要關鍵因素,更是購屋者關注的焦點。目前,購屋者參與設計的過程非常有限,開發商憑藉經驗、主觀意見與預期利潤,決定住宅初期設計方案與住宅品質項目,過程中常缺乏系統化的決策,購屋者也只能選擇接受與否。預售屋制度的特色在於住宅興建前,即可確認未來的使用者,藉由預售制度可提前導入使用者參與住宅初期設計及品質差異化策略,來滿足使用者的需求與偏好。本研究提出優化預售屋初期設計方案的混合決策模型,以設計品質指標Design Quality Indicator (DQI)建構影響住宅初期設計的因子,透過模糊德爾菲法Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM)、基於網絡分析法之決策試驗室與評價實驗法DEMATEL based ANP (DANP)進行因子篩選,並根據使用者偏好發展不同的住宅初期設計手法與方案。同時,本研究接續以基因演算法為基礎,提出系統化的成本與品質權衡決策,協助決策者在滿足購屋者的期望品質與建商預期獲利間,找到最佳的住宅品質差異化策略。透過個案研究顯示,本研究所提出的模型,能有效提升銷售率,縮短銷售時間(Time on the market : TOM),也證實更符合使用者需求的住宅設計方案,將與經濟價值間呈現正相關性。研究結果也顯示,預售屋制度能有效提升住宅品質,購屋者增加6%購屋成本,能達到最佳改善品質效果;開發商增加營建成本達8%以上來增進住宅品質,能帶給開發商額外的的溢出(Premium)利潤。


    The housing planning and housing quality (HQ) have always been key factors in the sustainable operation of housing developers. Besides, they are homebuyers’ concern. Currently, homebuyers’ participation in the design process is highly limited, and developers usually determine their initial residential design strategies and HQ items based on experience, subjective judgement and the expected profit. Without systematic strategies in the procedure, homebuyers only have a passive choice of whether to accept housing with such qualiy. The pre-sales housing system has a feature by which homebuyers are determined just before a building is constructed. Pre-sales housing makes possible the customized strategy of allowing future residents to participate in the housing design process in advance and use differentiation strategies of quality in order to optimize their housing needs and desires. This study proposes a hybrid decision-making model for optimizing the initial design strategies of pre-sales housing, identifying factors affecting the initial design of housing based on the Design Quality Indicator (DQI), screening factors using the Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM) and DEMATEL based ANP (DANP), and developing different initial design approaches and strategies based on buyers’ preferences. Meanwhile, a cost–quality trade-off model development the uses a genetic algorithm to help decision-makers identify the optimal HQ differentiation strategy that simultaneously satisfies homebuyers’ expectations of quality and developers’ expectations of profits. A case study shows that the proposed model can effectively improve the sales rate, shorten the time-on-the-market (TOM), and better complies with buyer-designed-strategy demands, and thus positively correlating to economic value. In addition, the findings showed that the presale housing system effectively improves HQ. A 6% increase in homebuyers’ budgets can achieve the optimal quality improvement effect, while an 8% or more increase in developers’ construction costs in order to improve HQ can generate an additional premium for the developers.

    摘要 I ABSTRACT II 誌謝 III 目錄 IV 圖表索引 V 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究動機與目的 1 1.2 研究限制與流程 3 第二章 預售屋制度與運用 4 2.1 預售屋制度 4 2.2 參與式設計與差異化策略 7 第三章 混合決策方法 9 3.1 混合決策方法建構 9 3.2 設計品質指標 10 3.3 模糊德爾菲法 12 3.4 基於網絡分析法之決策試驗室與評價實驗法 14 3.5 基因演算法 19 第四章 案例分析 21 4.1 初期設計規劃策略 21 4.2 參與式設計結果 27 4.3 成本與品質權衡運用 29 4.4 權衡結果 32 第五章 系統驗證與討論 33 5.1 參與式設計系統驗證 33 5.2 市場銷售時間 36 5.3 成本與品質權衡 37 第六章 結論與建議 42 6.1 結論 42 6.2 建議 43 參考文獻 44 附錄一 FDM問卷 47 附錄二 DANP問卷 54 附錄三 集合住宅品質項目增加意願問卷 60

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