只要是投資就會有風險，而資本市場上的投資標的，根據CAPM理論，股票通常具有高風險、高投資報酬率的特性。高風險意味著股票價格波動率較大，因此，投資人常常利用技術面分析，找出投資標的最佳的交易時點。
本研究結合多個技術指標與加權模糊時間序列所預測的股票漲、跌訊號，來決定股票的買、賣時點；作法是採用組合方法的概念，計算各個指標過去所產生的決策的準確率，並標準化準確率產生出權重，再利用各技術指標的決策作加權，產生出買賣的決策。研究結果顯示，買賣時點預測的效果不錯，幾乎都是買在低點，賣在高點，賣點比買點價格高，應該是有利可圖。本研究採用"持續買進，賣出時的價格必須大於過去平均持有價格"的策略，經實驗顯示，本方法可以穩定獲利。

Investments in a financial market may incur risk. According to the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), a stock with higher return rate usually exhibits higher risk. The risk of a stock is expressed in terms of the volatility of the stock price. Traditionally, the investors often use the technical analysis to determine the time points for stock transactions.
This study is mainly based on the technical indicators and the weighted fuzzy time series. Borrowing the idea from the ensemble algorithms, we calculate the accuracy rate of the historical predictions of each technical indicator and the weighted fuzzy time series. With the accuracy rate as the weight, we then predict the decision as a buy, a sale or no action according to the weighted sum of the individual technical indicators. According to the experiment results, most of the predicted buy signals occur at the times when the stock prices are relatively low, while the predicted sale signals occur at the times when the stock prices are relatively high. To utilize the trading signals, we adopt the policy to continually buy a stock and to sale the stock only when the opening price of the stock is higher than the average holding price of the stock. The experiment results show that our method can acquire significant return rates from the stocks in the Taiwan stock market.

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